If lynching d3mon proved that he was actually a scum, Kevin would be very high on my list of suspects afterwards. He has reiterated multiple times that he thinks d3mon is a townie and would make me think he was trying to protect him.

 

I'm not trying to protect d3mon as much as trying to guide the town toward its optimal course of action. I'm convinced with 3/11 probability that d3mon is scum. That's not enough to lynch.

 

 

Plus if he's town, at this point lying would be anti-town

...

This roleclaim has no detail on it.

...

1/11 odds of him actually HAVING this role.

...

For supposedly having security guard, he waited a LONG time to actually say it

...

If d3mon is scum with a role fighting to stay alive, we're letting him use that role instead of preventing it.

A few other points to consider:

• 
   
  
• He could be town and lying to attract a night-kill which would protect the real cop.
  
• There's no other role which would be more likely so implying 1/11 is a small chance for the claim to be true is misleading.
  
• It would have been better if scum did not know he was the security guard.
  
• If d3mon is not scum, you're letting some other scum use his role.
  

Herodez has (finally) been prodded.

Vote counts on their way now.

The problem is that any 'give d3mon a chance to prove himself' scenario involves basically giving scum the game if we're wrong

If the prospect of 3 dead townies in a row in so important that it deserves emphasis, consider:

• 
   
  
• Day 1 - Wrongly lynch our security guard
  
• Night 1 - Night-kill by scum
  
• Day 2 - Another wrong lynch
  
• Night 2 - Night-kill by scum
  

The fact that no one has counter-claimed another investigative role lends plausibility to d3mons claim. If I had a similar role I would counter claim. Maybe he's telling the truth after all but I want to give everyone a chance to post first to see if anyone counter-claims.

The fact that no one has counter-claimed another investigative role lends plausibility to d3mons claim. If I had a similar role I would counter claim. Maybe he's telling the truth after all but I want to give everyone a chance to post first to see if anyone counter-claims.

 

Why would anyone counterclam ANOTHER role?

The fact that no one has counter-claimed another investigative role lends plausibility to d3mons claim. If I had a similar role I would counter claim. Maybe he's telling the truth after all but I want to give everyone a chance to post first to see if anyone counter-claims.

 

I see your point, but if that's the case, I don't think the real cop should out himself, it's basically a death sentence. Sure we WOULD catch a scum, but we would likely lose our "real" cop with no guarantee of having a doctor.

 

This is all assuming d3mon is false roleclaiming.

 

Agh, such a bad situation. Srsly, if you have an important role like this, you shouldn't attract attention to yourself on day 1 like d3mon has. You should try to survive at least 1 night to give your ability a chance.

Why would anyone counterclam ANOTHER role?

 

They would counterclaim if they had a cop role, unless we are in a police station or the scene of a crime or something (where cops have shown up) thenthere is most likely only 1 cop role. The lack of a counterclaim so far means either A) No scum is willing to take the chance even if his death on the 3rd day would help his team out or the actual cop role doesn't want to say anything so they can see what happens during the night to see if d3mon is one of the movers (again, only if this is the same type of cop from the last game).

I assume that in every game we will have a cop and a doc in some variation. If d3mon is lying and I was the cop, I would most definitely counter claim.

 

We start the game with one less scum and avoid lynching a townie. Odds would automatically be stacked in the towns favor.

 

Doc can protect cop for at least one night.

 

If he is the security guard then he only gets his powers for one night anyway.

I want to hear d3mon's role description. Paraphrased to avoid a modkill. That will be important in deciding if he's telling the truth or not.

 

I do not support a no lynch as I believe voting patterns are a must. And d3mon is my leading suspect (thus he has my vote).

I'm interested in hearing from everyone who has not weighed in on the recent events. Let your opinion be known.

I find the lack of posts discouraging.

A few other points to consider:

• He could be town and lying to attract a night-kill which would protect the real cop.
  
• There's no other role which would be more likely so implying 1/11 is a small chance for the claim to be true is misleading.
  
• It would have been better if scum did not know he was the security guard.
  
• If d3mon is not scum, you're letting some other scum use his role.
  

Based on the points you have chosen to respond to, I think you missed the point of my dividing my analysis into two separate sections: one that assumes d3mon is scum, and one that assumes d3mon is town. Some of your responses show up in my 'if he's town' section.

Either way, I'll respond to them here:

@1: While possible, that would require him be left alive today to be their bait at night. Per my post, leaving him alive in any form with his behavior suggesting scum THIS strongly is extremely risky.

@2: Yes every role is equally likely - however having THIS specific role when people were saying he'd need a major one to survive reduces the field. My point could have been paraphrased as saying: "It's very convenient for him to have this important role when everyone was saying he would have to have a major role to be potentially worth keeping alive"

@3: I agree it would have been better if he never roleclaimed with this role. My point here is that once he STARTED his claim and was facing suspicion, he could/should have claimed SOONER instead of us having to drag it out of him. The manner of his eventual claim has done him no favors. Also note that under my "If he's town" list, I addressed your statement; that if he actually IS security guard, it would explain some of his reluctance to roleclaim. Though I still have difficulty understanding why he would then choose death over claiming if he had THIS important of a role.

@4: Generally speaking, any non-scum lynch on day 1 (including no-lynch) lets some scum use their role. My earlier post specifically dealt with evaluating scenarios for testing d3mon, and had to acknowledge in pros/cons that if he IS scum - possibly scum with a role - letting him get to night 1 for the test would mean letting him use that role.

 

If the prospect of 3 dead townies in a row in so important that it deserves emphasis, consider:

• Day 1 - Wrongly lynch our security guard
  
• Night 1 - Night-kill by scum
  
• Day 2 - Another wrong lynch
  
• Night 2 - Night-kill by scum
  

The day listings were again evaluating what could happen if we no-lynched to test d3mon on day 2. The scenarios all assumed a no-lynch on day 1 in order for the test to occur, and thusly started their counting with nightkill 1. Your list here is a valid scenario if d3mon is town AND we lynch him today - but it also assumes that we get the day 2 lynch wrong. I listed scenarios with us failing the day 2 lynch as possible casualties of testing d3mon, because d3mon would be picking our pool of targets while under suspicion - either via the guard role or via scum picking people. I included false positives (townies indicated by guard as being possible scum because they moved) as a scenario because the security guard role from last game produced false positives: EM and Kevin showed up moving and ccabal SHOULD have shown up but didnt due to mod error. The security guard role is likely to see as many town as scum move, if not more: 3:1 if you want to base it off of what CD should have seen night 1. It cannot be ignored as a scenario. If we lynch a false positive while testing d3mon, we'd be likely to then lynch d3mon for 'proving' wrong - and if d3mon was actually town, that would be ANOTHER town lynch and probably game over. The point is that if a townie is lynched in response to letting d3mon pick the day 2 lynch candidates, we will still be stuck on day 3 debating if he is scum or not - is he really a guard with real results and the townie was a false positive, or is he scum that just tricked us and is going to give us another bad target?

 

You have a consistent preference for no-lynch, and that's an understandable position on day 1 - there is indeed no solid information to be had. Day 1 of last game we didnt really have anyone stand out as likely scum based on their actions; this time we do. You have repeated that that he has 3/11 odds of being scum. That is the literal truth, but it assumes no other information - the raw numbers do not take his behavior into account. If you have four closed boxes containing three dogs and a cat and one of the boxes meows - that box is still 1/4 likely to contain the cat, but which would you pick?

 

-Preston

I find the lack of posts discouraging.

Mod confirmed prod on Herodez, so that's underway.

Nerau has a brief post on the previous page:

I hate weekends so that normal i haven't been here

 

i agree there is still a slim chance he is telling the truth but more than likely he is lying

But otherwise... where is Narsis? I /still/ want to hear that list's explanation.

 

-Preston

We only have a few days left to the Day 1 deadline. I understand it's hard to have an opinion one way or another early in the day when there isn't much to go on but now we have something worth discussing and EVERYONE should weigh in with their opinion/analysis. This will be very important to dissect as the days progress. People who are lurking I find to be very suspicious and will be moved up higher on my scum list.

 

Remember, mafia try to blend in as best they can and this is why it is important to state your position definitively and not be wishy washy.

 

This new development is also why it is important to vote on Day 1 as it fosters communication and gets people moving. Information is and always will be the towns best weapon. So new or old to the game, let your voice be heard.

Deadline is this Friday (2 days from now). A no-lynch is not an option (to me at least). Get your votes in.

 

 

Offtopic: GO CANUCKS GO!!!!!!!!!

Deadline is this Friday (2 days from now). A no-lynch is not an option (to me at least). Get your votes in.

 

 

Offtopic: GO CANUCKS GO!!!!!!!!!

 

Agreed, as much as I would hate to lynch someone without being sure, d3mon's absence is at a good time to throw us off.

Unvote

Vote: d3mon

 

VOTE COUNT

d3mon (4): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, TerrorChrist, CaoCao

ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango

KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez

TerrorChrist (1): d3mon

 

No Lynch (1): KevinH

 

Not Voting (1): Preston

 

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

Edited April 13, 201115 yr by molestargazer

Deadline is this Friday (2 days from now). A no-lynch is not an option (to me at least). Get your votes in.

 

 

Offtopic: GO CANUCKS GO!!!!!!!!!

k.. so I am back... well.. with 4 votes (am I counting right?).. I will probably get the majority/2 lynch..

 

CD.. best of luck for day 2.. I hope you would be able to explain your actions better than I did.

k.. so I am back... well.. with 4 votes (am I counting right?).. I will probably get the majority/2 lynch..

 

CD.. best of luck for day 2.. I hope you would be able to explain your actions better than I did.

See. This what I mean. You're not helping the town by posting no info.

 

We've asked for a paraphrased role description and you couldn't even do that. What else am I supposed to assume other than you're mafia?

Up to now, I've just been playing the odds trying to demonstrate that a d3mon lynch is not in the town's best interest.

 

I've gone through the posts. What follows is a defense of d3mon.

 

For the record...I think d3mon is mafia.

At the point of this post, d3mon had been accused using some very weak arguments -- typical day 1 blather.

 

d3mon needed to defend himself and made this post. He was trying to draw parallels to the previous game.

It seems that I am in a tight spot. No matter what I say, I am sure it can be taken as a proof that I am Mafia.

Still, I would like to state that I never joined the bandwagon against KevinH.

 

TC, I have not bandwagoned. So far, I have only voted for Herodez and my only serious accusation has been against you. Voting KevinH would have been bandwagoning and I didn't do that because a quick lynch never benefits the town.

 

All,

 

I would like to add that my role PM indicates that I am character from the previous round. Also, as a part of OP, mole indicated that another character from last round (Grandfather Tony) is in this round.

All this made me think that it is improabable (not impossible) that mole would have only two similar roles/characters. TC's indication that he was cleaning/mopping fueled my paranoia and made me suspicious that perhaps more than one mafia member has come back from the dead. Moreover, TC seems to be happy to lay low or join a bandwagon (he accused me after most others had stated their opinion about me).

 

All he said was that he was a character from the previous round which is a data point for suspecting the existance of a mafia janitor. Nothing terrible there.

 

@d3mon - you pretty much stated that you are a townie power role. Since we are no longer in a pool...that would rule out any of the lifeguard roles. So that leaves the security guard, friendly neighbour, insomniac, and curious child (that I can remember without checking the last game). So which one is it?

 

Leaving aside the meaning of "power role," CanucksDynasty is forcing a role claim on day 1. Why would he want to know? In any other game, this would be considered scummy.

 

Hm.. I am not sure how an answer to that question will help the town. Please enlighten me

 

d3mon correctly responds that a day 1 role claim is not in the town's best interest.

 

Well you sure didn't do the town any favors by telling everyone you had a character from the previous game. While I don't like to lynch newbies...I strongly suspect you are mafia.

 

It's day 1. Nobody knows nothin'.

 

Interesting. I dont think that I claimed a power role but I guess you can think that

 

d3mon attempts to avoid revealing that he has a true "power" role. He had not revealed anything at that point.

 

I feel d3mon should do a full roleclaim to remove any doubt. He's been so suspicious that I believe he attempted to appear townie to save his mafia skin.

 

After this follows the cry from the crowd that d3mon role-claim or be lynched. He eventually does role-claim and CD still wants to lynch.

 

It's in the town's best interest not to reveal roles early and not to lynch possible townie power roles. CanucksDynasty wants to do both.

 

Unvote.

Vote: CanucksDynasty

 

because he has a 3/11 chance of being scum. :_bully__by_E_motive:

@KevinH - nice try to deflect attention away from d3mon.

 

I picked away at the inconsistencies of d3mon's posts. I'm not the only one asking for full disclosure.

IF I was mafia, I would have not bother pointing out d3mon's post. I would have just nightkilled him since he outed himself as a townie power role. Thus never drawing attention to myself.

 

Could I be wrong...sure. I was wrong about EM last game.

 

If you think I'm mafia...then go ahead and lynch me. My death will not hamper the town and will give the town a starting point (ie. Those who voted for me).

@KevinH - nice try to deflect attention away from d3mon.

 

I picked away at the inconsistencies of d3mon's posts. I'm not the only one asking for full disclosure.

 

Would you be so kind to point to any inconsistencies in my posts.

 

I wonder... why you want me to paraphrase (since I am essentially claiming a role that you are very familiar with)... still since you want more information. I would recommend you read Mole's post here

 

My link

 

To answer your other question... assuming you are scum.. wouldn't it be better for you if the town lynched a power role and you could use your nightkill on someone else?

Would you be so kind to point to any inconsistencies in my posts.

 

I wonder... why you want me to paraphrase (since I am essentially claiming a role that you are very familiar with)... still since you want more information. I would recommend you read Mole's post here

 

My link

 

To answer your other question... assuming you are scum.. wouldn't it be better for you if the town lynched a power role and you could use your nightkill on someone else?

 

So you are saying the role is exactly the same as last game?

 

The security guard role (last game) was offset with numerous weak and negative townie power roles.

 

I question that because my role is that of a plain vanilla townie. So I have doubt in your role claim.

 

You posted about TC being the janitor. You posted about being a character from the previous game when there was no reason to do so. You didn't paraphrase you role when asked.

 

And to your last question. It is far better for mafia to blend in than to stick out.

d3mon, you're not doing a good job of defending yourself. Deadline is on the 15th and unless you give a good answer you'll be the one lynched at the end of the day. IF you are a townie then you must make us believe you and you better do it fast. The only thing I see saving you is full disclosure of your role, like it or not.

So you are saying the role is exactly the same as last game?The security guard role (last game) was offset with numerous weak and negative townie power roles. I question that because my role is that of a plain vanilla townie. So I have doubt in your role claim.You posted about TC being the janitor. You posted about being a character from the previous game when there was no reason to do so. You didn't paraphrase you role when asked.And to your last question. It is far better for mafia to blend in than to stick out.

I will try to answer your questions

 

1) About my role - Yes, I am claiming that my role is same.

 

2) About TC being Janitor - I have answered the TC janitor question more than once... I will try to answer it again

 

i) His comment indicates that he is mopping.

I am not sure what I should make out from this.. was it was a joke?? I dont think so. Remember there are 3 newbies (no offence) in this round. I just believe that it was a very obvious mistake by one of them.

 

ii) I have a role PM that indicates that there are characters similar to #1.

 

iii) As part of initial game description mole has confirmed that this is not a one of thing.

 

3) I claimed to be a character from last round without any need - Seriously?? I think I was the prime suspect at that time. ( I still am )

Moreover, in your own comments... there were plenty of negative/weak power roles. As long as I claimed that I was just one of the eight.. it shouldnt have made any difference.

 

4) It is better for mafia to blend in - By the same argument I am a definite townie. :

 

Well.. you talked about inconsistencies.. so I had some questions

 

1) You were pretty adamant that when I claimed to be a character from last round, I was helping the mafia. Now you agree wih my presumption that there were plenty of weak/negative townie roles to balance out the stronger roles... is this inconsistent?

 

2) After bashing me for revealing something about my character.. you are now role claiming... is this consistent? You were definitely not a suspect and I dont understand the need for you to roleclaim.

 

Also, may I ask you to paraphrase