638 replies to this topic

[Electric Mango]

Theory: 1/2 the town is sane, the other 1/2 is insane. Both have equal powers. That is why we have so many power roles and why we need a full majority to lynch. Neither side knows who else is on their team. I think we should lynch because if what I believe is true, we have better odds than not of lynching a sane person since we are down two and they are only down one.

[ccabal86]

Theory: 1/2 the town is sane, the other 1/2 is insane. Both have equal powers. That is why we have so many power roles and why we need a full majority to lynch. Neither side knows who else is on their team. I think we should lynch because if what I believe is true, we have better odds than not of lynching a sane person since we are down two and they are only down one.

Hm, interesting theory, but how would a faction win?

[KevinH]

We just kill each other off until one side is lucky enough to remain.

It works and is balanced, although not very strategic. Half the fun is discovering the set-up, anyway.

[Kaziocore]

VOTE COUNT
reign of terror (4): KevinH, ccabal86, Alternate_Tree, Xx Karl xX
ABigDeer (1): Rafay
Rafay (1): cam177

Not Voting (10): ABigDeer, Angel Cruz dela Sant, BeeBs, Daimos, d3mon, Electric Mango, reign of terror

With 13 Alive, 7 is needed to lynch.
reign of terror is the current wagon leader, at L-3
Deadline is in 3 days.

 
d3mon will immediately replace OrangeRush7

Edited by Kaziocore, 02 July 2012 - 03:02 PM.

[d3mon]

Looks like another interesting setup from Kazio.. I am reading the thread and will try to post something later in the day..

[Daimos]

Our home has been without power over the weekend in 100 plus degree weather. Our electric company is projecting it could last 7 days! I am at work posting these.

I am casting my vote now just in case I do not get another chance this week.

Since I agree we need to lynch someone and most seem to be leaning towards RoT so…

Vote: Reign of Terror

[KevinH]

Welcome d3mon!

I have 10/13 faith that you are on my side if it's a normal setup and 6/13 faith if it's the equal sides setup.

[Rafay]

I think since everybody is favouring a lynch vs no lynch I might as well vote roT too. I just don't want any innocent blood on my hands. But I also don't wanna post the lynching vote as it will make ppl think as if I'm a wrong guy like last time.

[KevinH]

Reign of Terror is currently at 5 votes with 7 needed for lynch.
There is no half majority at deadline so we need 2 more votes to lynch.
Those of you that are not voting to lynch are effectively calling for a no-lynch since no other candidate will realistically get the votes in 3 days.
I honestly don't mind the no-lynch since we didn't lose any townies to a night-kill last night but you will be counted as either in favor of lynching Reign of Terror or not. There is no alternate candidate being pushed.

[BeeBs]

I don't yet know if I can bring myself to vote for someone not even active enough to post a single word in their defense, especially when we have launched very few alternative theories. At this point I am unwilling to stake my name on it. Has anyone heard from Reign of Terror? I mean, he's got some government roles doesn't he? He should be active somewhere on the forum...

Obvious probabilities are obvious and I agree with the sentiment that a no-lynch is not completely harmful; it likely saves us from a mis-lynch. With so many remaining players I'd like to allow for more days for something from the cop or doc. Maybe we'll get a good kill with a vigilante or even something else from a power role we weren't expecting. Clearly, we're even at a loss for what sorts of power roles we've lost at this point, not to mention their faction!

At this point today I am unable to get us so close to a lynch on an easy target candidate without any more immediate need to get a pattern. With everyone who is active voting for Reign of Terror the "voting pattern" is going to be damn near worthless anyway. I think things would be different if the other half of the players were here as well.

Interestingly enough KevinH, I see you seeming to play both sides of the fence. Voting to lynch while recognizing the serious likelihood of a townie lynch, even furthermore advocating for a aggressive use of the vigilante. While I'm not entirely sure I disagree with your prod of our vigilante, it seems more aggressive than what I have noticed as a more calculated play style. Just something that raised a flag for me a bit.

[BeeBs]

Theory: 1/2 the town is sane, the other 1/2 is insane. Both have equal powers. That is why we have so many power roles and why we need a full majority to lynch. Neither side knows who else is on their team. I think we should lynch because if what I believe is true, we have better odds than not of lynching a sane person since we are down two and they are only down one.

Time will tell. Certainly, if we get a dead player with red script we'll know. Also, with this many players in the game our odds should be pretty high to stay relatively even. Again, time will tell, but if we're not seeing somewhat of a balance between dead player colors we'll have more to stake this theory on. Doesn't sound improbable though.

[BeeBs]

One more, okay?

Continuing from my last post on ElectricMango's theory - clearly, we'll be more likely as we lynch more of the same color that we'll get a kill on the other if our votes continue to stay this random. We're 2 to 1 if this is the case, so things are still relatively even, let's see where this next days colors leave us.

I think the few other posts that have followed suit on this idea are on track. I would agree that it wouldn't be all that infeasible.

Just another thought as well, I have been assuming that our first nights kills were the townies in the typical sense. That could be a poor assumption. With two non-red colors, we could be one townie down and two of some other faction. Or, as already pointed out by someone else color could be an indication of something else completely. My point is that I think it might be a little early to draw too many assumptions from the colors of our dead amigos.

Not to mention three different ways to die...it's getting harder to tell what we can really glean from these deaths the more and more I think about it.

[KevinH]

"A pro-town vigilante that has to kill would be wise to choose an inactive as well." (emphasis added)

This is not meant to advocate a night-kill. I was trying to give some strategy to a player that has to make a kill.

[Electric Mango]

I have amnesia as my disorder and so I don't k now my name or gender, feels weird saying that

INSANE -VS- SANE

Amnesia is not a disorder.
Having amnesia is not the same as being insane.

Vote: Alternate Tree

[reign of terror]

I'm here. I don't how much more I can defend myself than my role claim which I have already given.

[d3mon]

Welcome d3mon!

I have 10/13 faith that you are on my side if it's a normal setup and 6/13 faith if it's the equal sides setup.

Having read the thread, I am mildly suspicious of you. I think there are 3/13 (or 7/13) odds of you being scum

Now, I am not sure why everyone is so intent to lynch RoT, imho, scum usually tries to blend in and it would not have been difficult to make up a mental disorder, the fact that he has confessed to a weird ability (insanity) and has stuck by his story gives him townie points in my book..

ATM, I think the town would benefit the most by lynching an inactive..

Vote:ABigDeer

[BeeBs]

INSANE -VS- SANE

Amnesia is not a disorder.
Having amnesia is not the same as being insane.

Vote: Alternate Tree

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/dissociative-disorders/ds00574/dsection=symptoms

The case could maybe be made it is a symptom more than a disorder itself. However, it seems as though there are forms of amnesia that would classify as it disorder in and of itself.

However, picking this out, I think, is a much stronger incentive to vote for someone than merely because of inactivity.

FOS: Alternate Tree

Fact is, amnesia is a really easy card to play. You can role claim it and invest absolutely nothing into the role.

I'm here. I don't how much more I can defend myself than my role claim which I have already given.

This is not very helpful. Maybe more insight into why you voted the way you did yesterday. Maybe you don't have any strong rationale for it. I think it is a shame that you are being accused based on what someone didn't do to you (i.e. voted for someone else), it puts you in a very difficult position at this stage in the game. That is partially why I haven't voted for you.

ATM, I think the town would benefit the most by lynching an inactive..

Why? What is the benefit if we all just vote for inactive players? I really don't see us getting much benefit from that. Can you shed some light for me?

[Kaziocore]

VOTE COUNT
reign of terror (5): KevinH, ccabal86, Alternate_Tree, Xx Karl xX, Daimos
ABigDeer (2): Rafay, d3mon
Alternate_Tree (1): ABigDeer
Rafay (1): cam177

Not Voting (3): ABigDeer, Angel Cruz dela Sant, BeeBs, reign of terror

With 13 Alive, 7 is needed to lynch.
reign of terror is the current wagon leader, at L-2
Deadline is in 24 hours

Edited by Kaziocore, 04 July 2012 - 10:54 AM.

[KevinH]

A BigDeer is listed as both voting and not voting. He must be scum!

Unvote: Reign of Terror
Vote: ABigDeer

I'll switch back to Reign of Terror if he gets two more votes.

[BeeBs]

VOTE: Alternate_Tree

I think the amnesia thing is the closest match we've had to catching someone's flavor not jive quite right. Plus, it gives the claimer of the disorder a very easy out for having to explain any more.

Honestly, if the stakes were higher I might not vote for you. However, I'd like to do the town the service of having my name on the voting record.