Ugh. Family over Easter weekend has kept me busier than I'd hoped. But I am glad to see the day hasnt ended yet at least; it had felt like momentum was building when I last posted.
* Electric Mango was "definitely ok" with lynching CoD, but later hesitated when the momentum shifted to Xarastier. His vote stayed on CoD at the end of the day.
Martino changed votes at the last minute and the Day ended shortly after. If I had the chance to lynch him, I would have.
To clarify, which 'him' - Xarastier or CoD? Context sounds like you mean Xarastier, but it's hard to say at this stage. Really do wish the day had been able to end at the time we all thought it did, to put such things as "I would have lynched at the end!" to rest.
EM is an experienced player; I could see him having selected KevinH to get him out of play early. I also note that he is not being as forward as I recall him from previous games... he seemed more outgoing on day 1, saying to follow his lead and find scum - but he has done more bandwagoning than leading as I remembered him doing. Granted it's been a while since I played... but I'm still getting that feeling of something not quite right.
I think I'm being pretty vocal actually. Not sure where you get the band wagoning from unless it's for my vote on CoD during Day 1.
The quote system is indeed evil, but your day 1 vote for CoD was trying to make a lynch happen by jumping on an existing bandwagon for CoD. That's not inherently scummy, but my memory is of you being more the one to initiate bandwagons rather than jump on them. So as I posted, your style feels off this game and I think that's significant.
I will grant that you've been both more and less active since I posted - i.e. more focused posts attacking Imran, but then you seem to have sat back and watched the banter back and forth. However with the holiday and my own activity level of late I'm not one to talk.
Despite that, I'm going to keep my suspicion and my vote on you - it feels like to find scum today it's going to be about seeing who feels town, and then finding who has been pushing for them, and who has been helping them. So far you are #1 and Xarastier is #2 on my list, per the logic in my previous post.
Imran, you said you were in cavorted of lynching on Day 1...
Hey EM. No need to correct. The word you created sounds so cool, and conveys its meaning of approved, accepted and preferred.
I'm still in cavorted of hanging Cod and Imran. Imran first. 
Oops! I meant i'm in cavorted of hanging Rafay not Cod. Wow. I know you guys are gonna have a field day with this one.
You do seem to swap names around a bit much... but I'm not going to jump on this one.
Ediit:
You miss my point Killgore. I was referring to Cod and I as you intimated in your previous post. Not you:
"cause of his [Cod] meta. during the last games he also went on omgus crazes and responded in similar fashions. and he was a townie in both."
Trends from prior games can be telling, or it can be a cover - for example, Imran described EM's day 1 behavior as being 'normal' for him.
NOTE: The below quote fragments are Martino's, starting from the one below - the forum cuts it up horribly and loses his name, in case it's not clear.
Quote of Killgor:
cause of his meta. during the last games he also went on omgus crazes and responded in similar fashions. and he was a townie in both.
I would argue that the way in which someone plays can only be used to cast suspicions on someone. If they usually do X (and so far they have always been a townie), but now they do Y it is suspicious because something must have prompted that change in behavior. However, if they did X in the last few games as a townie, it does not mean they are a townie if they do X. In fact, if they are scum, they will probably try to do X to avoid suspicions about changes in behavior.
Same thought above.
Ok, so the rest of this post turned out to be quite a wall of text. Anyway, I will summarize what happened since my last post and give my thoughts on it.
The case Xarastier makes against Imran makes little sense to me. If I understand Xarastier correctly, he says that Imran and Rafay are scum because of four quotes. (I have paraphrased the quotes and given my thought between parentheses)
1) They both voted for KevinH (at the time KevinH had 3 votes, I’m not sure what makes Xarastier think both scum must be voting for him at this point)
2) Neither of them voted for CoD when he was at L-1 or L-2 (not too sure why that makes them scum either).
3) Imran says he thinks 2 out of the following 5 people are scum: CoD, killgor, Preston, Xarastier, EM . Imran decides to vote for CoD at this point. (The list Imran made is not that far-fetched in my opinion. Though I am personally not yet ready to consider Rafay a definite townie)
4) Rafay stated that he wouldn’t have killed KevinH if he was scum since he was the only one voting for KevinH, so it was bound to cause some suspicion. (The defense is logical. While I don’t agree that there is no way the scum kills KevinH if Rafay is scum, I don’t see anything suspicious about this post.
So all in all, I don’t see much in there that makes Imran and Rafay suspicious. Certainly nothing that makes both of them scum. Though Xarastier does not mention it, my interpretation is that he makes the Imran-Rafay connection because Rafay is one of two players Imran clears as town. However, assuming that Imran is scum for a moment, I don’t see why he would necessarily want to put his scum buddy on the cleared list like that. If we find out that Imran is scum, we would discard his list anyway. If we find out that Rafay is scum, this would make Imran suspicious since he tried to clear him.
If Imran is scum, I would be more inclined to believe that Rafay is not and Imran was simply trying to get Rafay to side with him by being the first to clear him as a townie. In any case, apart from Imran clearing Rafay, I don’t see anything in there that indicates Imran is scum. The case that Rafay must be scum because KevinH got killed is pretty weak as well. Anyway, it is good to see Xarastier make that case, since it led to some very interesting posts.
Killgor mentioned shortly after Xarastier’s post that he thought it made sense. So Killgor, could you perhaps try to explain what in your eyes is the case against Imran and Rafay?
Killgor has since responded to this question - and I think it was worth asking. What's notable is Killgor stated that Xarastier's reasons "could very well be quite random" - but then why would he say the post made sense? I cant argue with Killgor's statement that the game was stalling, however - it was.
In the next vote count, our mod initially makes a mistake and, at some point, accidently reports that both Xarastier and CoD were voting for Imran. Then the most remarkable thing so far happens as CoD decides to vote for Xarastier “to make Kazio correct”. No reason, not even agreeing with any reasons, just a vote because the mod accidently reported him voting for someone. Yeah right.
For all that my earlier analysis makes me think CoD is town, CoD doesn't seem to be doing himself any favors with stuff like this. His behavior more fits the profile of a wild townie than an aggressive scum.
EM, calls out Imran for not responding to one of his posts (Imran later answers that he was quite busy due to CN events (which makes sense)). EM also calls out CoD for voting for no reason and CoD completely ignores him.
I think this is worth noting. Per my current suspicion of EM, this could mean that both Imran and CoD are town if EM is scum... i.e. that EM was trying to get both of them lynched.
Killgor decides to vote for Imran “because the game is stalling”. So now we have Imran at 3 votes and we are still waiting for someone to give us a real reason. Xarastier tried to give his reasons, but as discussed above they were unclear to me. However, CoD and Killgor both look extremely suspicious for simply jumping on the bandwagon for no reason.
Despite Killgor's response after you posted this, his "because the game is stalling" vote appears linked to his saying he agreed with Xarastier's 'analysis'/vote - despite later saying he does NOT agree with it, but did it to move the game along. I find this contradiction actually somewhat interesting. Killgor WAS my #2 suspect on Day 1 for a reason... this will keep him on my list.
Preston makes a long post and I found myself agreeing with most of it. What it comes down to is that he believes that CoD is a townie and that EM might be scum. As for EM being scum, I was somewhat suspicious of him myself. However, he seems to be getting more involved in the scum hunting currently. Basically, his D2 play so far is much more like the EM that I remember than his D1 play was. Anyway, I am still reasonably sure that CoD is scum and it seems unlikely that CoD and EM are both scum.
Preston’s main argument for CoD being a townie is that, as a scum, CoD would not have unvoted Imran after he went to L-1 and then L-2, unless Imran is the other scum. This is actually a really interesting point as I initially started prodding CoD for exactly that reason. I felt that his bandwagon unvote was what he would have done if both he and Imran were scum. After that CoD started acting suspicious and I became convinced that he at least was scum. Regardless, while my main suspicions have been on CoD, I don’t think that Imran has been cleared in any way. So unless we find out that Imran is not scum, I don’t think we can clear CoD because of his unvote.
In fact, if you look at the transition from D1 to D2 it is truly remarkable. At the end of D1, Imran did not think that CoD was a good target at all and CoD was convinced that I was scum. Then, as EM points out, at the start of D2, Imran comes out attacking CoD. CoD seems to mainly ignore me and tries to conveniently slip a vote in on Imran when the mod makes a mistake. It would almost seem like they discussed the situation during the night, they concluded that CoD was most likely toast, that his unvote could bring unwanted attention to Imran, and that they thus needed to distance from each other. So my guess at the moment would be that CoD and Imran are scum together. However, the case against Imran relies heavily on CoD being scum. Therefore, I would greatly prefer to lynch CoD before Imran. If he is scum, I think we have won. If he turns out to be a townie, we need to be very careful with our next move.
CoD and EM cannot both be scum unless EM is playing a VERY dangerous game to try and 'prove' himself town at the expense of his partner - EM was pushing fairly hard for CoD's lynch on day 1. Unless he planned on a no-lynch, which doesnt serve the scum's purposes at all really. So I think your earlier post was correct; one or the other.
To elaborate on/reiterate my CoD being townie argument; CoD didnt have to unvote; day 1 is a perfect cover for 'random' votes, as has been pointed out elsewhere today. The fact he unvoted means he either didnt want the day to end as he claims, or he's scum AND Imran is scum, and he didn't want the earlier 'random' distancing vote to be used to lynch his partner. However on day 2, Imran very strongly attacks CoD - the early day's votes made me think we'd see a rush to lynch CoD as we were about to until votes started shifting to Xarastier. I dont think both Imran and CoD can be scum now - and as a result, that means CoD's unvoting would not have been due to scum knowledge.
Your theory about the Imran/CoD being scum and sacrificing CoD to prove Imran scum is worth noting, but I don't think it holds up given that KevinH was the night kill. That kill was done specifically to deny town any closure in CoD vs Xarastier dual bandwagons that ended day 1 - to KEEP them in the crosshairs. They could have done something else to move suspicion around if CoD were scum and they wanted to give us something else to talk about.
vote: CoD
Anyway to summarize my post:
- I am pretty sure Preston is a townie. There have been a few posts now where he posted exactly what I was thinking on some subjects.
- I am still convinced CoD is scum. His vote for Imran without giving any reason made me even more certain.
- I don’t think the current case against Imran is strong.
- However, if CoD is scum, Imran is most likely his scum partner.
Summaries are good - after walls of text it helps to have a tl;dr:
Again I disagree with the CoD vote, and with the CoD/Imran pair; I ironically now think both of them are town and fighting each other to keep from being lynched, as one would hope any townie would try to keep town from losing the game if they were in the group's collective sights. CoD is being aggressive in responding to the attack on himself, but that in itself is not a scum tell. Though I do think the "because we have to make the mod right" wasn't a great choice on his part...
Also, your post seems to suggest that lynching CoD is a means to 'test' Imran - I dont think that is a good idea, because a town CoD would mean nothing about Imran other than a collective 'oops' that would have us closer to LYLO.
My current candidate list consists of EM, Xarastier and Killgor. I am also watching Rafay - he has a lot of +1 style posts that dont seem to do more than echo the sentiment/situation as posted by someone else. The trick is trying to see which combinations of these two would work together, and which wouldnt - for example I dont think Xarastier and Killgor BOTH are scum, because of how blatantly Killgor has shown support of/excuse for Xarastier's style and responses.
We have until next Tuesday - one more weekend. I dont want to see us mess up again, because we need some concrete information.
-Preston