271 replies to this topic

[Electric Mango]

The lynch/no lynch debate has already started, let me weigh in.  It is in the towns best interest to vote for a lynch on Day 1.  As Martino said, if we sit, wait, and do nothing today, what do you think Day 2 is going to be like?  Do you think anyone but the cop is going to know anything more tomorrow if we don't start voting today?  There may not even be a cop.  If there is, he has no better chances finding a scum than the town does with our vote.  The town has to take control of this game if they want to win.  We can only get information from discussion and voting records.  

 

This entire game set up is specifically designed not to "follow the cop".  It is a game designed to play the fundamentals of mafia which requires the town to use their vote if they want to win the game.  It's going to be messy, we will not be perfect with every lynch.  Eventually though, we will have enough information gained through voting records to piece together the mystery and narrow down our suspect list.  

[KevinH]

• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.

 

Fact: Only 2 scum exist out of 9 players

Fact: 7 of the players are townie, of which 1 or 2 have a role.

Fact: It takes 5 votes to lynch

 

Discussion:

First of all, a potential lynch target has to be surfaced.  Nobody knows nothin' so it's essentially a random choice.

The scum won't want to lynch themselves so it wiil take 5 of the 7 townies to secure a lynch on a scum Day 1.

Meanwhile, the scum would love to lynch a townie so they would happily join a lynch mob, effectively making it only 3 of the townies voting for one of their own.

Add to this that the townie we lynch just might have a role and things look bleak.

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 1.01

KevinH (2) - Electric Mango, Rafay
Electric Mango (1) - killgor
killgor (1) - Martino
Rafay (0) -
Xarastier (0) -
Martino (0) -
Imran Ehsan (0) -
Preston (0) -
Chaplain of death (0) -

 

No Lynch (1) - KevinH

Not Voting (4) - Xarastier, Imran Ehsan, Preston, Chaplain of death

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
KevinH is the current wagon leader at L-3
Deadline is Saturday, March 22nd, 2012 @ 22:05 EDT

[Imran Ehsan]

I am for lynching on Day 1.

 

Vote: Xarastier

 

Let the drama start

[Electric Mango]

I know we may end up lynching a townie on Day 1 but we have to start lynching at some point. What is going to be different about tomorrow if we vote no lynch today?

[KevinH]

On Day 2, there's a 50% chance that a cop has done an investigation.

 

Even a doctor or jailkeeper might have a little information if there is no night kill.

 

Unvote.

 

Vote: Preston

 

I'm voting for inactives first.

[Xarastier]

The lynch/no lynch debate has already started, let me weigh in.  It is in the towns best interest to vote for a lynch on Day 1.  As Martino said, if we sit, wait, and do nothing today, what do you think Day 2 is going to be like?  Do you think anyone but the cop is going to know anything more tomorrow if we don't start voting today?  There may not even be a cop.  If there is, he has no better chances finding a scum than the town does with our vote.  The town has to take control of this game if they want to win.  We can only get information from discussion and voting records.  

 

This entire game set up is specifically designed not to "follow the cop".  It is a game designed to play the fundamentals of mafia which requires the town to use their vote if they want to win the game.  It's going to be messy, we will not be perfect with every lynch.  Eventually though, we will have enough information gained through voting records to piece together the mystery and narrow down our suspect list.  

 

I agree.

[Preston]

Sorry for getting into the game late all; offline kept me busy this weekend. I was able to read the thread from an ipad, but yeah... NOT typing a long post on one of those!

 

So to address the obvious first:

 

 

On Day 2, there's a 50% chance that a cop has done an investigation.

 

Even a doctor or jailkeeper might have a little information if there is no night kill.

 

Unvote.

 

Vote: Preston

 

I'm voting for inactives first.

 

No longer inactive (thankfully!). As for the rest - 50% chance of a sane cop in the game, but also 100% chance of a mafia role cop. We may get something, they WILL get something. Question is if that makes it better or worse for us to lynch on day 1.

 

I'm not sure how to parse this out as it's been a while since I played. I remember typically being in favor of a day 1 lynch because it generates voting records that we need to start figuring people out... but this open game format is new to me. It's true "nobody knows nothin' " on day 1, but patterns are still important.

 

If we lynch, there are three cases:

1) We lynch scum (LUCKY!) : 2/9 chance

2) We lynch vanilla townie: 5/9 or 6/9 chance

3) We lynch a power role (THE OPPOSITE OF LUCKY!): 2/9 or 1/9 chance

 

The most likely is case 2... in which case the scum have fewer targets to pick through with their role cop to find whatever power roles we DO have. 

In case 3 we've just seriously shot ourselves in the foot in addition to the result of case 2; scum has fewer targets for the remaining power role. 

In case 2 and 3 we also reduce the number of remaining townies (towniesaurs?) that scum has to choose from for their night kill. 

 

On first pass this sounds like a no-lynch argument: more total players alive prevents both scum cop and any potential real cop from finding targets as quickly on night 1 - but on night 1 the real cop (if any) would then have a confirmed town for day 2. Unless the sane cop or their target were killed... or there's no sane cop at all. 

 

EM and Martino have a real point that we dont/cant know if there IS a sane cop in this game or not. If there isnt one, on day 2 we've got no new information... at minimum seeing who votes for whom would give us something. 

 

This open game format is definitely making things interesting, and it's too late at night for me to really draw a conclusion yet... however I WILL say that right now I'm in favor of lynching - just dont know who yet. I'll watch another day or so's worth of conversation and then see if a name stands out to me. 

 

-Preston

 

PS: Also.. Triceratops? At least it's a dinosaur that I know... but now I've got images of dino crap from the sick tric in Jurassic Park in my head... x.x Not how I want to think of myself.

[KevinH]

Unvote

 

Good analysis by Preston.

 

Vote: Chaplain of Death

 

I appreciate his drawing skills.

[Chaplain of death]

You have a funny way of showing your appreciation.... then again all artists are appreciated more after they die so I guess your trying to help me?

 

Vote: Imran Ehsan

 

No drama for you. =p

[KevinH]

Unvote.

 

Vote: Martino

 

I want to show my appreciation for his return.

[Martino]

Unvote.

 

Vote: Martino

 

I want to show my appreciation for his return.

Thank you. Though you had already made me feel right at home by launching us into a no lynch debate .

[KevinH]

Unvote.

 

Vote: Rafay

 

I want to show my lack of appreciation for his vote on me.

[Imran Ehsan]

Unvote

 

Vote: KevinH

 

He is clearly trying to confuse the townies and blurring his own voting record by voting and switching votes continuously.

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 1.02

KevinH (3) - Electric Mango, Rafay, Imran Ehsan
Electric Mango (1) - killgor
killgor (1) - Martino
Rafay (1) - KevinH
Xarastier (0) -
Martino (0) -
Imran Ehsan (1) - Chaplain of death
Preston (0) -
Chaplain of death (0) -

Not Voting (2) - Xarastier, Preston

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
KevinH is the current wagon leader at L-2
Deadline is Saturday, March 22nd, 2012 @ 22:05 EDT

[killgor]

Vote: Martino cause everyone seems to be switching votes...

[KevinH]

What's to  confuse?

 

Nobody knows nothin'.

 

On the other hand ... only one player has placed the third vote on another.

 

Unvote.

 

Vote: Imran Ehsan

 

Seems scummy to me.

[Martino]

Unvote

 

Vote: KevinH

 

He is clearly trying to confuse the townies and blurring his own voting record by voting and switching votes continuously.

To me it seems like he is simply trying to spark some discussion by placing a couple of random votes. So I would say his actions have been the most pro-town of any player so far. 

 

vote Imran Ehsan

[Rafay]

I'll stay my vote on Kevin cuz of his vote hopping.

[KevinH]

So let me see if I understand.  A townie would know which player is scum rather quickly and place his vote and not change.  If he changes, then that is an indication of scumminess and would deserve a vote.  However, the player that changes his vote to vote for the scummy player would then appear scummy himself and deserves a vote.  Does not compute.