459 replies to this topic

[Canik]

*sighs* Next Mafia game I need to join before it starts. Getting a little tired of dealing with accusations from things I didn't personally say.

Though Canik didn't increase my suspicion on the few posts he made, he
didn't actually change my mind either.  His responses were pretty
standard, mostly suggesting an Idea that was already mentioned and
agreed by most was a bad idea.

I don't think 'most' agreed it was a bad idea. A few agreed it was bad right after potential holes were argued but I don't think it reached a majority. And aside from that I'd say most thought it was a good idea. TBH I'm getting a little suspicious of how hard you and some others are pushing the narrative that the bread-crumb insurance policy is definitely a bad idea and everyone has agreed with that.

As I counter-argued yesterday (though anti-bread crumb plan ppl ignored it).. the cop has limited shots, he's going to use them early and will probably reveal himself after N3 anyway. I think that pretty clearly makes it worth the risk to ensure we get what investigations he makes before then.

So far, in my opinion. Rhizo and AbT are townies. Scum wouldn't kill
someone that had a scum trying to lynch then, wouldn't make sense to me
to leave an obvious trail like that.

I do think you're probably right on AbT but it's mostly just gut feeling, because that really doesn't prove anything. There are a lot of smart and experienced players in this game and they may have done that preciously to make you think what you thought.

Rhizo I'm kinda 50/50 on. He did fight hard for Robert and while that doesn't prove much, I do doubt a scum would try quite that hard.. though, there isn't much downside and a lot of upside from a scum perspective if you think about it. He wasn't likely to cause a no lynch (and wasn't arguing for it, just arguing for a different lynch).. and Robert would've been the least attractive lynch option for scum. I think they'd prefer to keep him around and get rid of a more active town.

---

Now considering my point that town's shots are very limited and cop should be revealing himself early anyway.. can everyone please post if they are for or against the bread-crumb plan so we can get an actual tally on who is for or against.
 

[Rhizoctonia]

 

*sighs* Next Mafia game I need to join before it starts. Getting a little tired of dealing with accusations from things I didn't personally say.
 

 

Though Canik didn't increase my suspicion on the few posts he made, he
didn't actually change my mind either.  His responses were pretty
standard, mostly suggesting an Idea that was already mentioned and
agreed by most was a bad idea.

I don't think 'most' agreed it was a bad idea. A few agreed it was bad right after potential holes were argued but I don't think it reached a majority. And aside from that I'd say most thought it was a good idea. TBH I'm getting a little suspicious of how hard you and some others are pushing the narrative that the bread-crumb insurance policy is definitely a bad idea and everyone has agreed with that.

As I counter-argued yesterday (though anti-bread crumb plan ppl ignored it).. the cop has limited shots, he's going to use them early and will probably reveal himself after N3 anyway. I think that pretty clearly makes it worth the risk to ensure we get what investigations he makes before then.

 

So far, in my opinion. Rhizo and AbT are townies. Scum wouldn't kill
someone that had a scum trying to lynch then, wouldn't make sense to me
to leave an obvious trail like that.

I do think you're probably right on AbT but it's mostly just gut feeling, because that really doesn't prove anything. There are a lot of smart and experienced players in this game and they may have done that preciously to make you think what you thought.

Rhizo I'm kinda 50/50 on. He did fight hard for Robert and while that doesn't prove much, I do doubt a scum would try quite that hard.. though, there isn't much downside and a lot of upside from a scum perspective if you think about it. He wasn't likely to cause a no lynch (and wasn't arguing for it, just arguing for a different lynch).. and Robert would've been the least attractive lynch option for scum. I think they'd prefer to keep him around and get rid of a more active town.

---

Now considering my point that town's shots are very limited and cop should be revealing himself early anyway.. can everyone please post if they are for or against the bread-crumb plan so we can get an actual tally on who is for or against.
 

 

 

 

Don't get me wrong, I surely understand the frustration you must be going through to have to come in and replace someone.  I get that it stinks to have to deal with/argue against things you didn't say, but the person who you took over for said.  Nonetheless I'm not simply going to forget about what was said prior to you taking over...you taking over doesn't erase suspicion that was gotten by that individual, in this case, Fermion.  I certainly encourage you to look to join at the start of the next mafia game (few sign ups are going on already).  But as a player, I can see where you're coming from with the frustration...but again, you can't erase what someone else already said, and at this point, I still suspect you most and think you're the best option.  

 

Also, just so you are aware, I stated back on May 22 (post #116) that both you and whitebeard were who I suspected most, and that I would likely be voting for one of you.  This, before the lynch wagon even started on Robert.  You can look to spin it however you want, but I stated my suspicion of who I thought a week before deadline and I didn't suddenly change or waver from it.  I also stated on May 21 (post #107) that I usually am a no lynch guy because I find it mostly just a blind shot in the dark, but that I wasn't against it as long as someone gave at least some reason besides just guessing.  The vote on Robert was just that, a guess with nothing to back it up, no reason he should of been suspected of being a scum because all he was, was inactive.  It wasn't like he was reading said thread and not posting, he was just inactive which is exactly what I said I was against, just voting on someone to vote someone (no evidence).  I didn't back it then, I don't back it now.  My vote on you was due to Fermion, because I got suspicious of some of what he said (I know you didn't say it), and my vote was based off the fact I at least had some suspicion of you, and I stated it as I said, a week prior.  Now fast forward to May 26th (post #155)...I called out people for switching from you to Robert suddenly.  You see, Fermion was also inactive mostly through this time, and yet, I still argued if we were going to lynch someone who is mostly inactive (you, Whitebeard, Robert) that I see more reason to vote for the likes of you or whitebeard whose given off suspicion rather then Robert who hasn't given us anything.  

 

Your effort to try to spin that I was trying to take out an active poster instead of Robert who was inactive is complete bogus.  I didn't suddenly try to pull votes to you, I had been advocating for either you or Whitebeard a week before update, and well before you took over.  I was also calling out people voting Robert before you even took over and became an active player.  I called out people voting Robert when Fermion wasn't even active either..I didn't suddenly change once you became active to looking to lynch an active person over a inactive.  

 

I've been saying the same thing all game.  I said I didn't want to vote someone just to vote someone without any reasonable cause/suspicion.  I felt I had, and others even, had more reasonable suspicion to vote you/fermion or whitebeard from your posts early on before you both went inactive then Robert who we had nothing to go on and would gain nothing on.  If I was going to take a shot in the dark and try to lynch someone day 1, it was going to be more then just voting someone to vote someone, and I at least had a feeling with you two.  Then you took over, made some claims of who you thought was town and scum, which even adds more reason to lynch you if we're going to lynch anyone, because not only now did I have suspicion back when it was Fermion, now we had some claims of yours that we could investigate depending on what you turned out to be.  We gained a lot more information to go off of lynching you then we did Robert for which he was town and we can't look at claims he made about other people because there was none.  Lynching a townie is important as lynching a scum from the information we gain, and we gained 0 from Robert...that wouldn't of been the case for you.

 

So you can try to look to indirectly shine suspicion on me as much as you like, it only makes me believe you're scum more.  If anyone cares to look at my track record in this game and what I said and who I accused then they should easily be able to see that I stated my suspicion of you and whitebeard way before deadline, along with outspoken against a vote on Robert before you joined this game and your character became active..because prior to it, Fermion was inactive as Robert besides his early posts that he was called out for and suddenly went inactive.  

 

Included dates and post numbers for ABT, he seems to like when people do that

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Canik (1): Rhizoctonia,
Imran Ehsan (0):
iSocialism (0):  
Whitebeard (0):
Rafay (0):
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Chaplain of death (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, Mandarijn, Rafay, Chaplain of Death, King Hitler, iSocialism, Ali bin Turban, Canik, The Warrior, Whitebeard,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

[Canik]

I blame the forums going down on your walls of text Rhizo. Happened right after that last one, I assume it pushed the forum over it's bandwidth limit.

I certainly encourage you to look to join at the start of the next mafia game (few sign ups are going on already). But as a player, I can see where you're coming from with the frustration...but again, you can't erase what someone else already said, and at this point, I still suspect you most and think you're the best option.

Yeah it's mainly just an annoyance because I have to go back and re-read the first 5 pages to see what was even said. I would've like to avoid that but fine, since you insist..

Post #29

- Fermion gives his opinion on lynching D1 in which he says lynching D1 is a bad idea. If he was listened to we'd only be down 1 townie now instead of 2.

Post #38
- Fermion replies to Mandarjin saying essentially Jailkeep protecting Cop could be good but reminding him that Cop can't use his ability while jailed. Also saying Cop should come out as soon as he hits on scum so we for sure get that vital info. Thought this was a bad idea when I read it but when you consider we have very limited shots it makes more sense. This was also the catalyst (I believe, tho he's not given credit for it) for the bread-crumb idea which is suggested on the next page.

Post #112
- Fermion reiterates that he's against a D1 lynch. He does seem a bit self-contradicting in that he concedes there is some use for pressuring people but in the end doesn't see the point in actually lynching. Which is how I generally view D1 lynching too, posted almost the exact same thing in one of my 1st mafia games.

Post #150
- Fermion's last post, which he clearly put more time and thought into than the others. Probably because he felt bad for the person who would replace him. xD This post dispelled much of the suspicion around him before I took over.

So to sum it all up, to me it seems you're the one spinning things Rhizo. Everyone didn't drop their suspicion due to me and my opening posts as you claim, their suspicions had already dropped mine just made them drop a bit more perhaps.

Fermion did do more than simply repeating people. (As have I)

Fermion was mostly just suspected because he didn't seem very sure of himself. Something lots of people are prone to, myself included. I've learned people prefer confidence, but really skepticism and humility can be a very good thing. Otherwise the world would just be full of arrogant know-it-alls.

btw I like how you continued to ignore the bread-crumb argument. Many have agreed that Cop should come out early, most suggest D3. Shots are limited and so cop won't have much use later. It's likely to take scum another day or two at least to find the cop. Why not do the bread-crumb insurance policy if that's the case? The risk/reward seems obviously in favor of having the insurance policy with those things considered. It doesn't make sense as far as I can see, to risk getting no info so that cop can be alive later with 0 shots left.

[Mandarijn]

Let's pressure the lurkers!

 

Vote: iSoc

[Rafay]

Vote: King Hitler

 

Pressure the lurkers indeed.

[SeaBeeGipson]

Vote: King Hitler
 
Pressure the lurkers indeed.

Yeah those darn lurkers.

Vote Whitebeard.

I just get two opinions about him. 1) he is a VT and not really interested in the game from a non-power role standpoint. If that's the case, we actually hold a large amount of power by being able to just converse. Through conversation, we can set scums up by making them show their un-townlike behavior and give the power roles the opportunity to act. Or the second opinion, and why I'm voting, Whitebeard is scum. He hasn't contributed nearly what others have in strategizing how the power roles should use their limited actions and mainly, the OPP post just came off as counter-productive. He still hasn't rebutted any claim to him being a likely candidate of being a scum (unless I missed it, again can't see much on my phone.)

[The Warrior]

Vote: Whitebeard

 

He is still the person that I am most suspicious of and hasn't done anything to address the concerns that I have about him.

 

While we are pressuring people to speak the rest of us should continue to talk strategy as well. Can anyone think of anything that we haven't considered yet?

 

I know that the forums were down yesterday but we still haven't seen Imran, COD, or ABT post since day 2 began. What do you guys think?

[Imran Ehsan]

Thats a whole load of walls of texts to g through. So I will post my thoughts after I get a chance to read through them when I get time.

[Ali bin Turban]

I've come before forum failure, but Rhizo's wall of text has broken my morale and forced me to retreat (not that I'm much better with posting a lot). There's a lesson to learn from recent events for everyone. Never make a replacement at the end of the day on a guy that risks getting lynched. We'd be much better of lynching Fermion and getting Canik to replace Robert. But that's past now.

 

Now to the discussion, I'm a little disturbed with Rhizo's recent posts. One of your grievances with Canik is that he approved "bread crumbs" tactic (let's call it that for clarity)...yet you seems to completely ignore the fact TW has done the same (right here I've called him on that : http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-2/page-10#entry858999 ...and got a very evasive answer just one post later). Why?

I also think you're trying to hard do convince us you're town, like if you didn't know how town's people are thinking. Seriously, that "fear" of getting lynched should Robert turn out to be a scum is exaggerated. Contrary to what you say, it would be much better if Robert turn to be a scum and I don't think it would be possible to lynch anyone (not to mention guy with townie points) because he defended inactive (and did that using reasonable arguments).

 

I don't see spinning in Canik's posts. It's possible for either scum or town to go for inactive or defend him. Unfortunately those actions are not enough as a proof (and we did saw a lot of inactive voting in TW's game). Honestly I don't see him as a scum. I don't see any of you two at this moment, to be clear.

 

I also don't see Whitebeard as a scum. A noisy person, not having much to say - true, but I've a gut feeling he's a town.

 

Lyner has probably died because he was the most suspicious of holding power role. He's experienced guy and he was keeping medium-low profile (not lurking, but not participating that much in the discussion). It seemed suspicious and I was prodding him because of that. Scums could've made similar observations.

 

My biggest suspect is for now TW (I agree with Lyner on that). I've already mentioned one of the reasons (at the beginning). I also find his posts suspicious in general. If you dig into them in order to get any substance there's not much to be found. Just some general truths and summaries.

 

Vote: The Warrior

[Rhizoctonia]

I'm not quoting anyone because it doesn't need to be a longer post then needed.

 

Canik - I don't believe I ever stated that you were the only one to take away people's suspicion of Fermion....people already were dropping off Fermion/you before you even took over.  I already referenced the comment I made in my last reply about me calling out people suddenly jumping off your wagon and switching to Robert.  As I stated there, I saw no good in doing so.  There was at least some suspicion with Fermion before he went inactive, but yet people decided to rather choose Robert, another inactive that hadn't given off any hints of who he might be.  Again, if I'm going to vote off an inactive, which I still think is stupid, I would rather choose an inactive that gave off suspicion then an inactive that didn't give us any suggestion or idea what he was.  You then took over and instantly came out saying who you thought was town and scum, which if you were lynched would of at least gave us something to go off of.  The only thing I believe I've said is I don't know how from what you said once you took over would erase any suspicion, because you merely repeated something (as Fermion did).  You didn't make yourself in my eyes look more scummier or less.

 

In regards to the breadcrumb, I don't think I need to repeat myself.  I stated my opinion on this already, if you care to know it, you can look back at my points I made against it.  I pointed out scenario's that it could in be bad.  In my response, I even stated it would depend on how many people guessed wrong first that would determine how quickly the scum was able to narrow down their list of possible scum.  At this point, the scum liknow 3 less people that isn't a cop, the two that are dead and I imagine they used their role cop on another so they at least know another person's role.  So that leaves 7 at this moment that are possible cops.  Now everyone guesses, it all depends on how many guesses are wrong (scum will know) that will determine how far they can narrow said list, and be luckier on killing the cop N2.  I think the safe bet would be for the cop to come out D3, though he could do 3 night actions and come out D4...but that's a risk.  Now if the cop found a scum D1, then in my opinion there is no need to do the breadcrumb...because if he leaves the breadcrumb that someone = scum, he's going to be targeted to be killed the next night, so we lose N2's cop action.  The Scum are going to kill anyone who guessed right on a scum, period.  So if the cop found a scum the first night, he my as well just roleclaim because the breadcrumb isn't going to do anything more to help us or protect him, his "Breadcrumb" of the scum is going to lead him to be killed.  The only way he'd be possibly safe one more night is a fellow town member guesses someone is a scum and is right too and they kill the wrong person....but that being said, the more town people who guess someone is a scum, the more likely they're going to be wrong as well, as it's a lot better odds to guess and be right someone is a town then someone is a scum, and each wrong answer narrows their list.  

 

I'm not saying the idea is horrible, I am just saying there are possible bad scenerios to it that lead me to rather just not risk it.  Another problem is, say another of our role power guys gets lucky and guesses someone is a scum....he's likely to be killed because he correctly guessed a scum which the scum will likely fear he could be a cop and kill him.  Now were out another power role because he just luckily guessed right.

 

The only thing we gain from breadcrumbs is if cop found a town N1 and he can leave a breadcrumb that someone is for sure a town.  This is helpful information, but how much is it worth?  Is it worth helping narrow down the list of possible cops for the scum for N2?  Doing the breadcrumb idea if the cop did find a scum N1 actually likely hurts us.  The cop will leave the breadcrumb today that someone is a scum, which will lead the cop to be killed tonight, so we don't get his N2 info.  D3 will come, we will know who the scum is.  However, if instead, he came out today with that scum information, we wouldn't risk mislynching today, we knock out a scum instead, and we lose the the cop tonight (unless we jailkeep the cop).  So if the cop did find a scum, it's better if he just came out now with the information if we're going with the breadcrumb idea, then to not come out he's a cop, leave a breadcrumb, risk a mislynch today, and have to wait till tomorrow to know who the scum after the cop is killed, and we still don't get his information of N2.  The result will be the same, the cop will be killed N2, the only difference is we have to wait another day to know who the scum is and risk mislyncing today.  

 

So in all reality, the only benefit we gain from doing the breadcrumb is if the cop found a town N1 and can leave a breadcrumb.  But is verifying a  single townie worth the risk of people guessing wrong, and instead of scum having to pick from 7 people who could be the cop...now the number drops to 3, 4, 5, etc that are possibly the cop, giving them a better chance of guessing right.  Or instead, we don't help narrow the list of the possible cop, and we hope he isn't killed tonight and tell us two night actions come D3.  

 

If majority want to do breadcrumb then we'll do it.  My only response would be then if the cop found a scum N1, don't worry about leaving a breadcrumb today, just come out you're the cop and who the scum is so we can knock one off tonight.  You're going to be killed N2 either way, rather not have to wait another day and possibly mislynch today, as well as you using up a action point we have when you are killed anyway and will be for nothing.  I still don't think it's worth possibly forcing the cop to possibly role claim today if he did find a scum, or we help narrow down the scum's guess for N2 of who the cop is just so we have a single verified town.  

 

So there...you got me to reiterate what I've already said, and make me look deeper into it making my novel even longer.  

 

 

ABT - My main reason for going Canik was not Canik's action but Fermion's.  I've also stated that Canik's reply didn't really make him more or less scummier in my eyes.  It mainly revolved around Fermion, but I do find it odd that the first thing Canik said is suggest an idea that people found holes in already, and seem to keep pushing that.  For me the idea could hurt town more then help, so people pushing it makes me suspicious.  As for TW's, I must of missed that whole interaction, as I thought the only two people who after some of the holes of the idea were brought to light that still thought it was good was Canik/Imran.  In regards to trying hard to prove I'm town, my last response was merely in reply to Canik suggesting that I'm still suspicious because I could of been trying to take a lynch off an inactive town and instead putting it on a more active town.  I wanted to point out my push for the lynch of him or Whitebeard wasn't suddenly at the end...those had been my suspicious two from awhile ago, back when Fermion was as inactive as Robert, and I already stated earlier that if I'm usually a no lynch person, but if I was going to vote it was going to be off something more then voting someone with no evidence or suspicion, which Robert was.  

 

I don't get what you're talking about with fear?  I didn't say I feared I would be lynched.  I merely stated that if Robert was found out to be scum, I'd likely be target #1 because I was the one advocating not to lynch him.  There's not going to be an whole lot to go on this day (or until cop comes out likely), so me trying to tell people not to vote Robert who was scum might be suspicious enough to lynch over because there's not much else to go off of, and I don't see us going a day without a lynch now.  If you're suggesting I wouldn't get votes and possibly lynched over that alone on D2 with not much other information, then I think you're kidding yourself.  

 

I probably did use the wrong word, as I said I was "Glad" Robert came up as town.   I was thinking as I was typing my response out as I do always, and yea in a way I hope that Robert being town would help people know I'm town and take my thoughts into consideration more, but yes I do agree that it would of been better Robert came up as scum.  I even alluded to that in the same paragraph.

 

 I didn't like the vote on Robert, and what I feared happened did.  We killed off a inactive town that we could of hopefully got a replacement for, and doing so, we gained nothing. 

 

My glad comment was me thinking about the result as an individual not as the whole game, because if he was scum it could end up causing a mislynch on me...but then I went into how the result hurt us, and how the result was what I feared would be the result all along, he was a townie and we gained nothing.  I stated this multiple times before last deadline, and why the lynch was bad.  I also stated in the same paragraph, "  The only good scenario was Robert was scum...anything else was going to be bad."  Which I also stated before the deadline lynch.  So yes, I agree the best result would of been he was scum.  I have stated that in many posts.  The upside of him being town I wrongly worded as being better then him being scum, which was not my intent. 

The last sentences weren't meant to be bigger words either. I just noticed this after posting.  When I copied the one quote of mine from an earlier post it was smaller font, I thought I changed it to the same as all the rest, but obviously I made it from smaller to larger. 

[Canik]

So in all reality, the only benefit we gain from doing the breadcrumb is if the cop found a town N1 and can leave a breadcrumb. But is verifying a single townie worth the risk of people guessing wrong, and instead of scum having to pick from 7 people who could be the cop...now the number drops to 3, 4, 5, etc that are possibly the cop, giving them a better chance of guessing right.

Hmm.. well then, if we make town-heavy guesses that could cut down on the wrong guesses and cop should still pretty safe. And all this time really I've been thinking he'd investigate for 3 nights.

If cop didn't get a scum hit last night and doesn't tonight then it'd really be better for him to stay under cover at least 1 more night.. but as you say "he could do 3 night actions and come out D4...but that's a risk.".. but should he come out tomorrow, D3, with just two town results? Is that worth him revealing himself?

Basically, if the cop can survive tonight the breadcrumb plan instantly becomes better. Assuming he got a town result tonight, which is very likely. If he gets one tonight then the breadcrumb plan's value increases even more. Because at that point, even if it's very likely scum is narrowing him down, he would've already revealed himself under your plan and then he'd DEFINITELY 100% for sure be targeted. And yeah we could use Jailkeep on him but then he can't use his ability anyway.

I'll admit though that your point here does even the risk/reward out of the strategies a bit, but I'm still not totally convinced yet that the breadcrumb strategy isn't better overall. And I definitely think cop coming out tomorrow with just 2 town confirms is probably a bad idea.

[iSocialism]

Rhiz does make mafia require more time to play (read). From what I got on day one is that people were arguing the best strategy, someone said something, and someone else said that was scummy behavior. Now day two is here and I don't know what is going on.

[Chaplain of death]

vote Chaplain of death

Reason: pressure the lurkers.

I pretty much can only come online on my phone lately and the walls of text are making me not want to spend the limited time i have online reading through all that bullshit. If we could be a little more concise, that'd be nice.

Whitebeard resigned from IRON, so i don't think we'll be seeing him again (though i could be wrong).

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (2): King Hitler, The Warrior,
Canik (1): Rhizoctonia,
iSocialism (1): Mandarijn,  
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Chaplain of death (1): Chaplain of Death,
Imran Ehsan (0):
Rafay (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Whitebeard,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.
 

[Mandarijn]

Whitebeard resigned from his positions, but is still kinda active and around in IRON. But yeah, maybe KevinH should check with him to see if he's still going to play.

 

Besides that Rhizo should indeed learn to make his point in shorter posts.

 

I have gone trough all posts these last few days and will post my thoughts about that later, but I 1st want to see some more posts from certain people.

 

Also: Unvote

[SeaBeeGipson]

Unvote.

Are we able to see if anyone can replace Whitebeard if he is inactive?

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
Canik (1): Rhizoctonia,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Chaplain of death (1): Chaplain of Death,
iSocialism (0):  
Imran Ehsan (0):
Rafay (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Whitebeard, Mandarijn, King Hitler,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.
 
Whitebeard has been ping'd

[Canik]

Another thing about the bread-crumb plan to consider is it could help us narrow down scum as well by giving the town more information to work with. There are only 3 scum, town is heavily reliant on information no matter what. As Imran said (altho it was in reference to lynching D1 I believe), we shouldn't rely too heavily on the cop and power roles. This particular set-up is designed to highlight the power of VTs - talking analyzing information and voting.

Of course we should still try to take advantage of what power roles we have but just saying, that information could be quite valuable to us. Doing it might also keep more people active or create even more discussion which could later be analyzed. Otherwise it seems like things may stay rather quiet, which is definitely not good for town.

I should hope everyone can see and agree now that there is clearly some significant benefits to the bread-crumb plan. The question is it worth the risk? Let's do the math and find out:

Risk of Cop Being Killed: 1/7 (14.3%) <-- Current, assuming scum used their rolecop last night.
1/6 (16.7%)
1/5 (20%)
1/4 (25%)
1/3 (33%)

The rewards:
- Cop may be able to stay under cover longer, while still giving us results. No need to come out on D3.
- More information to analyze
- We definitely get at least 1 result, even if Cop dies tonight.

My opinion:
Everyone has a 8/11 chance of correctly guess town, so if we guess town heavy we shouldn't narrow it down much for the scum at all. Going from a 14% chance to 16% or 20% is probably worth it.

The next night the odds will be worse, but at that point Cop will have 2 results and extra results will be icing on the cake. Good chance we do get extra results though, because even if they narrow it own to 1/3, that's still a 66% chance they miss.

[Chaplain of death]

 

 

In regards to the breadcrumb, I don't think I need to repeat myself.  I stated my opinion on this already, if you care to know it, you can look back at my points I made against it.  I pointed out scenario's that it could in be bad.  In my response, I even stated it would depend on how many people guessed wrong first that would determine how quickly the scum was able to narrow down their list of possible scum.  At this point, the scum liknow 3 less people that isn't a cop, the two that are dead and I imagine they used their role cop on another so they at least know another person's role.  So that leaves 7 at this moment that are possible cops.  Now everyone guesses, it all depends on how many guesses are wrong (scum will know) that will determine how far they can narrow said list, and be luckier on killing the cop N2.  I think the safe bet would be for the cop to come out D3, though he could do 3 night actions and come out D4...but that's a risk.  Now if the cop found a scum D1, then in my opinion there is no need to do the breadcrumb...because if he leaves the breadcrumb that someone = scum, he's going to be targeted to be killed the next night, so we lose N2's cop action.  The Scum are going to kill anyone who guessed right on a scum, period.  So if the cop found a scum the first night, he my as well just roleclaim because the breadcrumb isn't going to do anything more to help us or protect him, his "Breadcrumb" of the scum is going to lead him to be killed.  The only way he'd be possibly safe one more night is a fellow town member guesses someone is a scum and is right too and they kill the wrong person....but that being said, the more town people who guess someone is a scum, the more likely they're going to be wrong as well, as it's a lot better odds to guess and be right someone is a town then someone is a scum, and each wrong answer narrows their list.  

 

Says he doesn't need to repeat himself. Proceeds to repeat himself. 

 

Unvote

 

Vote Rhizo