459 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
Canik (1): Rhizoctonia,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,
Chaplain of Death (0):
iSocialism (0):  
Imran Ehsan (0):
Rafay (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Whitebeard, Mandarijn, King Hitler,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

[Whitebeard]

wowww

 

im in

sorry for the disturbances but yeah im still in the game

 

 

 

couldn't come on due to important reasons

Vote: iSocialism

 

 

Your'e the top lurker in this game at the moment.

[Rhizoctonia]

Another thing about the bread-crumb plan to consider is it could help us narrow down scum as well by giving the town more information to work with. There are only 3 scum, town is heavily reliant on information no matter what. As Imran said (altho it was in reference to lynching D1 I believe), we shouldn't rely too heavily on the cop and power roles. This particular set-up is designed to highlight the power of VTs - talking analyzing information and voting.

Of course we should still try to take advantage of what power roles we have but just saying, that information could be quite valuable to us. Doing it might also keep more people active or create even more discussion which could later be analyzed. Otherwise it seems like things may stay rather quiet, which is definitely not good for town.

I should hope everyone can see and agree now that there is clearly some significant benefits to the bread-crumb plan. The question is it worth the risk? Let's do the math and find out:

Risk of Cop Being Killed: 1/7 (14.3%) <-- Current, assuming scum used their rolecop last night.
1/6 (16.7%)
1/5 (20%)
1/4 (25%)
1/3 (33%)

The rewards:
- Cop may be able to stay under cover longer, while still giving us results. No need to come out on D3.
- More information to analyze
- We definitely get at least 1 result, even if Cop dies tonight.

My opinion:
Everyone has a 8/11 chance of correctly guess town, so if we guess town heavy we shouldn't narrow it down much for the scum at all. Going from a 14% chance to 16% or 20% is probably worth it.

The next night the odds will be worse, but at that point Cop will have 2 results and extra results will be icing on the cake. Good chance we do get extra results though, because even if they narrow it own to 1/3, that's still a 66% chance they miss.

 

 

Here's my kinda thoughts on the breadcrumb idea.  

 

If we go with it:

 

- Cop comes out when he finds a scum.  There's no point in leaving the breadcrumb of a scum, he will be killed the following night.  This causes us to possibly mislynch the day before when we could of knocked off a for sure scum, as well as if he decided to use his ability the night he's killed, it's a waste of a power point.  We also allow the opportunity for the jailkeeper to use his role on the cop at night once we know who it is.  

 

-  If we're going to leave breadcrumbs, then everyone's guess should be who they think is a townie, not a scum.  This will allow for most people to guess right, which will not narrow down the list of possible cops since it's better chance someone will guess right on a town then a scum, and as I stated earlier, there's no point in the cop leaving a breadcrumb someone's scum anyway, he should just come out with it.  So there is no point in someone guessing a possible scum to cover up the cop...the chances are they will guess wrong, and it's not likely the cop will surive the next night as well.  

 

Pros of breadcrumb:

 

-  Get a verified town no matter if cop is killed tonight 

-  May be able to stay under cover longer while still giving us info

-  Don't risk having the cop killed before he told us anything

 

Cons:

 

-  Force the cop to roleclaim on D2 if he found a scum N1.  He could of instead wait to reveal until D3 where he can not only have 1 scum verified but maybe a second scum or verified town

-  Narrow down the potential list of possible town for the scum.  Each wrong guess by someone narrows it down

-  I only really see the point if the cop is going to stay hidden for more then 2 nights (finds 2 towns on his first 2 tries).  If he's going to come out tomorrow (D3), I don't think it's really a point to it, the probability is he wont be killed anyway, all we get is a verified town, and we narrow the list from 7 possible cops to less for a single confirmed town.  

-  Breadcrumb idea could also hurt the chances of the cop staying hidden longer.  If some people guess wrong, the list of cops goes down.  Then they get 2 more night actions to find it N2.  Then we guess again the next day, if people who guessed right on D2 guesses wrong D3, the scum could be down to 2-3 guys left who is a cop for N3 and be a big risk for the cop to be killed.  If we don't do breadcrumb...he stands a better chance to live past N3 if you're going to risk it.

 

 

TBH, the more I think about it, the more I think the cop should reveal instantly when he found a scum.  If we found a scum, we have 1/3 chance it will be the rolecop scum.  It's as important for us to knock him out as it is for scum to knock out our cop.  Each day he's not killed, they get 2 night actions of hitting our cop/and or finding our other PR's which isn't good either.

 

Honestly, if we do the breadcrumb idea I still think the cop needs to come out D3.  After tonight, the scum will be down to at least 5 people who possibly is the cop, and that's not including if we mislynch today, that's knocks it down to 4, and that's not including that out of those 4, if one or 2 guess wrong today, it could be down to 2-3 possible for N3.  We risk using up a power point for nothing, that otherwise could of been useful for our other two.  I personally would feel more comfortable the cop doing 3 night actions if we didn't do the breadcrumb idea then if we did.  But that's still a risk...and we'd have to weigh if that's what we want to do come tomorrow if the cop survives.

 

So the way I look at it, we do the breadcrumb to make sure we get 1 townie info if the cop is killed tonight.  That's really what I see it being good for.  I am ok if we want to do that, because I think we likely won't narrow the list down enough to really put the cop in that more risk...but I think in doing so, the cop for sure needs to come out D3 with both actions if he lives...to0 many variables and unknowns that would get him killed N3 and we use up a point for nothing.  

 

Like you said, we can't rely on the cop to win this game for us.  If the cop can verify 2 townies...that's 2 less people we need to worry about, and everyone needs to start using their mafia skill to find the others.  And at this point...we're not doing so well there....besides a few, most aren't talking and not helping make sure we don't mislynch tonight with minimal info to go on.  I do think if the cop found a scum last night, it benefits us more he comes out now to prevent maybe 2 mislynches in a row, we take out 1 of 3 scums, and we have 1/3rd chance of taking out their rolecop which will make it harder for them to find our other 2 PR's, and we can possibly save him if he does with the jailkeeper.  

 

For now, you're at least trying to help.  That's better then a lot of people.  It sucks some of the more active people usually are not currently (Mandarijn, Imran, COD, TW).  Makes me a bit suspicious, as real life creeps up on people (I should know), but very different then every other game I've played with them.  And people didn't seem to want to believe me when I had minimal time to play in past games...so I wont give them the curiosity either.  

 

Unvote

 

Vote :  Rafay

 

Hard to know with Rafay, he seems to play the silent type no matter what role he is....this goes for Isocialism as well.  But hasn't contributed anything, and calls out KH for lurking when KH at least has posted his thoughts on some things.  Need to make sure we don't mislynch and isn't helping. 

[Mandarijn]

Yeah, you're right, now we're doing shit. Everyone is being quiet (me included ), this is not helping at all... We should still share our thoughts and play like normal. We need to continue playing like normal and accuse people and get everyone to talk as we can't rely on the cop, so the accusations and talking might be the only things we have...

 

My thoughts and accusations on everyone:

- Chaplain is more quiet than usual, normally he's one of the top posters

- Ali is playing like normal in my eyes (even though I've only played 1 game), could be town or scum. He would be smart enough to keep his playing style.

- Imran has been rather quiet, I have no read about him yet, so could be both. He seems to be pushing less than in other games though.

- TW: I don't know about him. He's always been scum before, so I'm not sure how he plays as a townie. Could be either...

- Rhizo has the same problem (was SK and scum), but he feels town to me for once

- Rafay is always suspicious to me, he got accused early on D1 and he actually tried to defend himself and became pretty active for a second. I don't remember him doing this in the other games we played. Now the accusations dropped and he's again just riding along... 

- KH and Whitebeard are new, not much there. If I had to say something I would say KH is town, Whitebeard could be either.

- Canik, also could be both, but I'm leaning towards town

- iSoc is not posting much AGAIN, so not much to go of there

 

So yeah, like always a lot of possible scums.   Now talk!

 

I'm also tempted to vote for Rafay, because it's Rafay, he's always suspicious and I wouldn't mind lynching him at all as he'll be little help all game. But I want to see some other guys post 1st...

[Ali bin Turban]

Yeah, it took you 12 pages to get to the point I've mentioned in post #3 .

 

But for now I'm inviting everyone to join me on the TW bandwagon...there will be a party over there and you don't want to miss it .. More seriously, let's put more pressure on those suspicious folks. More voting, more talking.

[Ali bin Turban]

BTW, I don't think we should discuss the "breadcrumb" idea any longer. Time to do it was on D1 (and we've decided it was bad) and now it's more of a distraction, taking us away from more important problems, like finding scums and confirming townies.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,
iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,  
Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Mandarijn, King Hitler,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

[The Warrior]

BTW, I don't think we should discuss the "breadcrumb" idea any longer. Time to do it was on D1 (and we've decided it was bad) and now it's more of a distraction, taking us away from more important problems, like finding scums and confirming townies.

Discussing a strategy for the town is not a waste of time. Just because it's day 2 doesn't mean that it's too late to strategize especially considering that we never actually settled on what we wanted to do on day 1. It's just as important to figure out how we want to share the cop's information before we lose the opportunity. We can still do that while analyzing people's posts.

By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it.

As far as my reads on everyone else at this point:

Whitebeard: Could very well be a townie and has just acted suspiciously without knowing any better. The only way we will get a better read is if he participates more. He is still one of my top suspects based off of posting up to this point.
King Hitler: I am getting a townie feeling from KH right now.
Rhizoctonia: We have seen Rhizo as a scum and as a SK up to this point. His style feels different in this game than the other two. He appears to be genuinely trying to help.
iSocialism: Same activity as usual. Lurking does not help the town. If he is town he needs to post more actively. Unsure at this point but could be scum.
Rafay: Was a little bit more active than usual earlier on. Seems to have dropped back off of the radar now though. Same as with iSoc, if you are town we need you to participate more.
Canik: Fermion didn't get off to a great start but started to seem less suspicious before Canik took over. Canik may have re-hashed the breadcrumb plan but I think that he was just trying to change the proposal to make it a better option for us. Getting people to continue to discuss the best possible town strategy is not a bad thing. We should never stop trying to find the best way to share known information (like we get from the cop). Could be either at this point.
Chaplain of Death: Has been much less active in this game than usual. Could be either.
Imran Ehsan: Seems to be a lot less active than usual. I've seen him in games when he is town and a game when he was scum. As a townie he is usually actively scum hunting. I'm not sure what else he might have going on but this game seems out of the ordinary for him so far. Could be either but if he's town I definitely want to hear more of his thoughts.
Ali bin Turban: Seemed townie on day 1. I'm less certain now. We should definitely be analyzing people's habits and discussing them but that doesn't mean that we abandon strategy at the same time. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. Only scum would want us to get away from strategizing especially since they can't do so together during the day. Could be either but I think this could be the first game we see ABT as scum.
Mandarijn: Has also been less active than usual in this game but I know that he is busy with important things irl right now as well. I still get a generally townie feel from him though.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,
iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,  
Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Mandarijn, King Hitler,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

[Imran Ehsan]

Sorry guys RL has been crazy lately. I still havent caught up with reading all the walls of texts yet. Hopefully by tomorrow I will be able to *fingers crossed*

[The Warrior]

Sounds good. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

 

[OOC] Good luck with whatever has kept you busy IRL. [/OOC]

[Ali bin Turban]

First of all, to make it clear:

 

1. Canik, your methodology is oversimplified and it hurts your data really bad. For instance real chance of cop getting killed tonight is 25% (They got 12.5% chance to find him via rolecop ability on N1 - if they succeeded then today they'll have 100% kill chance, if not then it'll be 14.3%. So it's 12.5%*100% + 87.5%*14.3% = 25%). That's almost two times higher than you get from your numbers!!

 

2. I've already estimated what's the difference between "crumbing" and not "crumbing": http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-2/page-4#entry856635. For those that are to lazy to click the link, that's the summary:

 

Without our "help" as I've mentioned scums have bit over 50% chance to find who's cop after 3 nights. With our "help" that's probably around 80-90%.

 

If any of you have better numbers, please show me. But make sure they're correct.

 

3. Game lasts 20 days now. We've already discussed many options and now we're going in circles. Nothing new was told, it's all rehashing old ideas that not only are old but also dangerous to the town (and I've not seen anyone yet that would refute my arguments). What's more, now we've those few townies that remain active putting their effort into discussing theories instead of scum hunting. Discussing on what to do is necessary but it's bad when it obstruct the main goal. It's not that cop will win the game for us (and there's 25% chance he's "already" dead...we just don't know it yet). What can we hope for? One more night for the cop if we came with a very smart plan (and for the record, we've not). Reward is quite low for the risk we're taking (by risk I mean not focusing on people).

 

4. Town's free to decide on their own wether my input is useful or detrimental.

 

 

 

 

 

Now to TW's post. My scum-sense was tingling a little when I read his previous posts so I've started poking him. And with each of his answer that scum feeling is getting bigger and bigger.

 

1. It started from his posting style - no substance in it. Just making sure to be seen around.

2. He turns out to be a supporter of that dangerous "breadcrumb" idea. When I point it out he comes with very evasive answer:

 

I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately. We just need activity, participation, and information. We need whatever information that the cop can provide. We can't afford to lose it before it can be shared because otherwise we literally have nothing but instinct to act on (or the slim chance of the jail keeper targeting the correct scum member at night and preventing a kill).
 

Just another hollow statement that we need to be active and cant afford to loose cop. And on top of it, TW does not care what we'll do. Well, I do care and I don't want us to act in a way that will make it easier for the scum.

 

3. His latest post:

 

By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it.

 

That has scum written all around it. There's no arguments, no reasoning here. He's not even trying to discuss (like for instance Lyner did when I poked him), he's just evading with some emotional trick that's supposed to make me feel guilty for suspecting him.

 

Ali bin Turban: Seemed townie on day 1. I'm less certain now. We should definitely be analyzing people's habits and discussing them but that doesn't mean that we abandon strategy at the same time. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. Only scum would want us to get away from strategizing especially since they can't do so together during the day.
Could be either but I think this could be the first game we see ABT as scum.

 

Again, he's not even trying to reason as rational town would do. Rational town is never sure who's who. He'll rather show proofs of his innocence than strike blindly because he knows the risk. No, instead TW looks for an argument to hit me back. And he finds just one and really weak one and use it to come into conclusion I'm a scum. Why do I think it's weak? I believe my actions and participation speak for me (but if anyone has something against me, come out and speak, I'm not afraid to explain myself).

 

I'm looking for a scum. I'm probing people, poking them, because I don't know who they are. I'm not afraid to vote on someone just to put more pressure on him. What's TW's approach? Evade questions and strike back with accusation. At the same time he didn't even have balls to vote on me. Probably afraid to be the first one.

[Rhizoctonia]

Well since you ask, yea...at this moment I'm starting to have something against you.  You have claimed TW has looked scummy because he said the breadcrumb idea had merit...for which he stated "Canik's proposal had merit."  You're using his liking of a plan you do not like (which I agree with it's a bad plan) as one of the reasons to lynch him, and what first made him suspicious to you...yet you have not done the same for Canik.  Not only that, you say you were "disturbed" by my recent posts because I called out Canik and not TW, for which I've stated I missed.  You called me out for voting Canik for a very reason you suspect TW, and say it's disturbing I vote Canik for this and ignore TW, yet you sit here and ignore Canik but vote TW.  But unlike me who missed your call out of TW, you have seen both people, yet no where have you suspected Canik...yet use a similar reason to vote TW.

 

Your earlier post, when you called out TW for saying Canik's idea had merit, you said you gave the benefit of the doubt to Canik because he hadn't been playing as long and have as much time to think about it.  But now we're day 2, Canik since has been pushing the idea more then anyone, even after people have said that we already discussed why it was bad, and had time to go back and read...but again, you don't suspect him.  Canik was the one who rebrought up the idea, yet you don't jump on the guy who rebrought it up and still fights for it, but the guy who said it had merit.   I'm confused how my posts disturb you because I voted Canik for agreeing with the idea which I think is bad but don't vote TW because I missed it, but you have seen both people agree on the breadcrumb, and even more Canik fight hard for the idea, yet do not vote him, and actually look to take the heat off him.  

 

I'm certainly not sold TW is for sure town, but neither am I Canik.  

[The Warrior]

 

3. Game lasts 20 days now. We've already discussed many options and now we're going in circles. Nothing new was told, it's all rehashing old ideas that not only are old but also dangerous to the town (and I've not seen anyone yet that would refute my arguments). What's more, now we've those few townies that remain active putting their effort into discussing theories instead of scum hunting. Discussing on what to do is necessary but it's bad when it obstruct the main goal. It's not that cop will win the game for us (and there's 25% chance he's "already" dead...we just don't know it yet). What can we hope for? One more night for the cop if we came with a very smart plan (and for the record, we've not). Reward is quite low for the risk we're taking (by risk I mean not focusing on people).

No one is suggesting that we should obstruct the main goal which we can agree is scum hunting. I just don't agree with your assertion that continuing to discuss strategy somehow has to hinder or detract from our scum hunting efforts. We can do both.

 

 

1. It started from his posting style - no substance in it. Just making sure to be seen around.

 

No substance in it? I suppose we will have to continue to agree to disagree on the merits of debating strategy. I commented on the strategies being presented which is more than most others have done.

 

 

2. He turns out to be a supporter of that dangerous "breadcrumb" idea. When I point it out he comes with very evasive answer:

 

I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately. We just need activity, participation, and information. We need whatever information that the cop can provide. We can't afford to lose it before it can be shared because otherwise we literally have nothing but instinct to act on (or the slim chance of the jail keeper targeting the correct scum member at night and preventing a kill).

 

Just another hollow statement that we need to be active and cant afford to loose cop. And on top of it, TW does not care what we'll do. Well, I do care and I don't want us to act in a way that will make it easier for the scum.

 

I am in favor of a plan that will get us the information that we can from the cop before we lose him. That was the whole purpose of talking strategy. My "I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately" line was saying that I was not necessarily married to the breadcrumb strategy. Not that I don't care what we do overall. You misinterpreted me.

 

As it stands right now all we have done is debate strategy but we have not come to any sort of a general consensus on the best course of action for the town. I saw the merits of the breadcrumb strategy as did several others. More than anything I was absolutely advocating for participation in the discussion. I've seen plenty of people sit there and lurk or be completely inactive in other games. When you're scum, you don't care about pressing the inactives or drawing attention to them. It's better for you to let them sit there and idle because it's fewer people that can hunt for you. A scum may make a post calling for an inactive to be replaced if others are doing so as well but they will mostly prefer not to push the matter or draw consistent attention to it.

 

I have been consistent in calling for more participation and discussion from the inactives. And what do you know, we have people lurking and not saying jack-shit anyway.

 

 

3. His latest post:

 

By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it.

 

That has scum written all around it. There's no arguments, no reasoning here. He's not even trying to discuss (like for instance Lyner did when I poked him), he's just evading with some emotional trick that's supposed to make me feel guilty for suspecting him.

 

Of course this is a line that scum would use. Believe it or not, a townie may just say this same thing when they are being wrongly accused. And yes, that is the case here.

 

 

Ali bin Turban: Seemed townie on day 1. I'm less certain now. We should definitely be analyzing people's habits and discussing them but that doesn't mean that we abandon strategy at the same time. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. Only scum would want us to get away from strategizing especially since they can't do so together during the day.
Could be either but I think this could be the first game we see ABT as scum.

 

Again, he's not even trying to reason as rational town would do. Rational town is never sure who's who. He'll rather show proofs of his innocence than strike blindly because he knows the risk. No, instead TW looks for an argument to hit me back. And he finds just one and really weak one and use it to come into conclusion I'm a scum. Why do I think it's weak? I believe my actions and participation speak for me (but if anyone has something against me, come out and speak, I'm not afraid to explain myself).

 

I am giving my current reads on people and that is how I see you. I don't believe that a townie would reasonably say "abandon strategizing in the name of wild-ass-guessing". That is still all we have to go off right now. And I didn't say ABT is scum. I said that you could be. The scum will want the town to be as disorganized as possible. Encouraging random guessing and leaving the strategy up to chance of each individual only benefits the scum in this game. What if our cop is Whitebeard or King Hitler who are both "new" to mafia? What if the cop didn't understand the importance of making sure that his information is known before he dies? What if they did know that but didn't realize what the best way to do it could be since they have no experience to draw from? That is why we need a plan.

 

 

I'm looking for a scum. I'm probing people, poking them, because I don't know who they are. I'm not afraid to vote on someone just to put more pressure on him. What's TW's approach? Evade questions and strike back with accusation. At the same time he didn't even have balls to vote on me. Probably afraid to be the first one.

 

I didn't vote for you because I still find Whitebeard's actions to be more suspicious than yours. He has not contributed anything to the scum hunt so far other than "I don't care what looks scummy" and the "OPP" posts. At least you have, even though it's off-base. My response to your accusation was to point out that you were exhibiting suspicious behavior yourself in your vote for me.

 

If our cop has any doubts about me he can go ahead and visit me tonight. He won't find scum (unless this encourages the mafia's framer to act and visit me as well) but at least he can confirm another townie which you are likely to do anyway based on the odds. In fact, other than not finding scum, there really isn't a downside to visiting me, either:

1) You will confirm that I'm town and hopefully be able to share it with your other findings before you are targeted by scum.

2) This might encourage the scum to waste one of their night actions by framing me which would be one less action that their role cop will be able to use against us to find our cop.

 

It'd be better if we found a scum with the cop's actions of course, but if you want to clear my name feel free.

[SeaBeeGipson]

At this point, I'm just skimming through the massive walls of text so if I missed something small, don't slaughter me for it. Anyway, here's what I'd like to add. Rhizo definitely has a different play style this game to me. I don't know whether he is changing it up to test the waters with a new style or this is his town style, but Rhizo is coming off as town. I honestly wouldn't clear his name just yet though. I feel the cop should investigate tW. TW isn't coming off as a huge scum feeling for me, but with AbT trying to get a lynch on him since D1 it seems, it'd be the best way to figure out what most likely is going on. If TW is scum, we have 2 options. AbT is a townie with really good perception, or AbT is another scum and they both planned an argument to throw townies off. I don't feel the second option holds much weight in this instance.

If TW is a townie, it's clear that AbT is trying to get a lynch on an experienced player first. I do get a huge town feel from AbT and im on the fence about TW.

As far as Rhizo and Canik with the bread crumb argument. I don't think reviving the argument would've been a bad idea (since I honestly favored the idea) however, the argument had engulfed most of D2 and left us with nothing. No good assessments can be made imo from the argument. Rhizo has felt the most town like to me (Mandarijn as well) Since D1 and after N1, Rhizo felt even more townie. I'm on the fence about alot of people and I have my speculations as well. Canik did seem to repair Ferm's mistakes upon entering and give off a better vibe, but I'm still a little uncomfortable with how the breadcrumb argument keeps getting brought up consistently. I think it's time to move on from that. I won't vote Canik just yet as I do feel he may be a townie and can't risk a mislynch again.

As far as who I feel the most scum like is at the moment.

Vote: Rafay.

No, it isn't about him voting for me either. Frankly, 1 vote isn't much to worry about. It's the reasoning for the vote. Rafay hasn't contributed much and the only thing he really has posted D2 is trying to get the lurkers to be more active, then he proceeds to go absent it seems. I'd like to hear more from him as far as his thoughts and reasonings on everyone, not just a random vote. Random votes should've stayed in D1.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler,
Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,
iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,  
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Mandarijn,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

[Chaplain of death]

unvote

Still hoping that you guys learn to cut down on post size. Only quote the parts of people's posts you intend to address, and please be a little more succinct. Text walls will inevitably still happen but we have far more walls than not right now.

To be honest i check this thread multiple times a day usually but i doubt I've read half the things said on D2 because of how many walls have been posted.

[Canik]

1. Canik, your methodology is oversimplified and it hurts your data really bad. For instance real chance of cop getting killed tonight is 25% (They got 12.5% chance to find him via rolecop ability on N1 - if they succeeded then today they'll have 100% kill chance, if not then it'll be 14.3%. So it's 12.5%*100% + 87.5%*14.3% = 25%). That's almost two times higher than you get from your numbers!!

Um, I'm not sure it really works that way. I mean, it would if you were trying to find the chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow but.. either they did find him or they didn't find him last night. If they did, then it's a 100% chance he dies.. if they didn't then it seems like it should revert back to my numbers for the actual chance during the night.

Basically, you may be right that the overall chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow is 25%, but I don't think they necessarily reflects his actual chances during the night. You get what I'm saying? It's tough to explain. xD

It's kinda like when people argue when you flip a coin 5 times and it's been tails every time, should the next chance be MORE likely to finally be heads or is it still a pure 50/50% chance? (not exactly like that but best metaphor I can think of)

Either way, I am about done debating it because we do need to start discussing other things (these a very long days tho so we still have time).. and I feel like enough people just aren't going to unite behind it and follow through.

---

Hmm.. now who to add pressure to. Rhizo & AbT stand out a bit to me because while it does appear they're trying to help, I'm not sure that they are. How quick Rhizo's opening and lengthy attack on my also seemed almost planned but, at least they're talking and active.

Imran & CoD are much less active than usual, worth keeping an eye on but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

Rafay & Whitehead are both quite inactive and need to get participate more, definitely encourage pressure on them. At least they've made votes and a couple of posts though.

iSocialism however is still the least active. Not voting at all, don't think he's posted at all today.

I think Whitehead & iSocialism are probably the best choices for now.

Vote: iSocialism

TW I'm still leaning towards town on him. KH/Mandarjin no reads yet

 

[Ali bin Turban]

I'll answer Rhizo for now (since it's morning and I'm of to work). I felt disturbed because you were confirmed townie in my eyes. But then you've explained your actions and I'm not worrying about you any more . 

 

Secondly I'm not basing my vote on just breadcrumb stance. That would be very naive of me to think someone's a scum just because he supports it. It's sort of circumstantial evidence that may lead somewhere but does not mean much on it's own. So why I'm not jumping on Canik for it?

 

In my eyes there's a big difference between Canik and TW. Canik is new, may have missed some posts, etc (so he got benefit of a doubt at the beginning). Secondly when you ask Canik why has he chosen to support it, he starts explaining it, shows some numbers. He's working on the idea, putting some effort. Maybe I've weakness for people that use reason, but Canik feels genuine in his efforts, even though I don't agree with them. Finally as I said, breadcrumbing is to little for me to believe someone's a scum...and I believe there's nothing more we could accuse him of (please correct me if I'm wrong).

 

As for TW, I don't really know why he supports it and it's suspicious to me. I'm trying to ask him about it and I get some evasive answers, emotional trips and accusations.

 

 

 

Um, I'm not sure it really works that way. I mean, it would if you were trying to find the chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow but.. either they did find him or they didn't find him last night. If they did, then it's a
100% chance he dies.. if they didn't then it seems like it should revert back to my numbers for the actual chance during the night.

Basically, you may be right that the overall chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow is 25%, but I don't think they necessarily reflects his actual chances during the night. You get what I'm saying? It's tough to
explain. xD

Just a short explanation: You seem to be basing your numbers on a one-kill per night behavior with no other factors included. But here we got another factor - a mafia rolecop,
that basically doubles their effectiveness in finding our cop. Secondly we don't know it they find him or not, so that's why we're measuring chances with probability.

On N1 one mafia "finding out who's the cop" chances were approximately 2times more than "killing the cop" (due to rolecop ability and to the fact that killing = finding out). But on the next nights they'll be basically the same since mafia will have rolecop result from previous night (which may have found our cop).

[KevinH]

Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

(I thought y'all might enjoy another wall of text)

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler,
iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik,
Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.