926 replies to this topic

[Sister Midnight]

I count 5 votes on Icecream I currently plan to vote for him, but we have until Tues. and I could easily flip back to Preston, so I am hoping no one ends the day early.

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

 

1ceCream (4): KevinH, Mazuurek, legoboyvdlp, D34THBR1NG3R

D34THBR1NG3R (1): iSocialism

iSocialism (1): Ali bin Turban

Preston (1): Wolfpacks

Ali bin Turban (0):

Finster Baby (0):

KevinH (0):

King Hitler (0):

legoboyvdlp (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Finster Baby, 1ceCream, King Hitler, Preston, Sister Midnight

 

With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Tuesday, September 6th.

[Ali bin Turban]

About KevinH not finding anything. He's still alive and (assuming he's town) it can mean 2 things:

 1. There's ninja in play (enforced by the fact that we also had a watcher) so scum team is not afraid of KevinH (especially if SM/Preston are mafia and they just sit doing nothing while other scum performed a kill ... would anyone expect KevinH to check them again? I don't think so).

 2. The got better targets so far:

      - on N1 they got a lucky shot at Mandarjin and CoD investigated someone else (maybe Lyner).

      - on N2 they either chosen Lyner or make a lucky guess (not targeting KevinH because he was probably protected and they were saving Strongman for the Cop)

      - on N3 their choice was to kill KevinH, Rhizo, or 3rd unknown person that was investigated by Cod on N2. Out of those 3, they've decided Rhizo is more dangerous, even though they knew he's almost a VT at this point (just one unknown action left, as he would surely use up his vigilante knowing his life is in danger...though for some reason they could have though he won't use it...at least Preston thought so here: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57842-tw-03-harry-potter-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-mafia-day-4/page-30#entry876916).

 

Conclusion is either mafia has ninja or they don't think KevinH is a threat to them even if he is PR. Conclusion out of this conclusion is that KevinH's results means absolutely nothing.

 

Now to the other things.

1. I'm now almost 100% sure 1ceCream is a scum. Take look at his RC.

 

I'm fucking trying to graduate but I can't get 4k NS to save my life 

 

My Role: Justin Finch-Fletchley, a Hogwarts VT.

 

He says he's Hogwarts VT...but you're either Hogwarts Student or Hogwarts Staff Member - take a look at sample role, take look at Rafay (both on page 1 of this thread). Also all that are VT take a look at your role PM.

Thing is...most probably scum didn't got that information - only thing they got was their safe name claim (I'm assuming that because that how it looked in previous game when I was scum)...and that's why 1ceCream has blundered his RC.

 

2. I'm also almost 100% sure iSoc is a scum.

 

 

Funny
thing is I made my statement because I don't think Preston is scum and didn't want him to be lynched. I stare my theory because I wanted to have three to suspect form everyone, bit was having trouble finding my own. I believe WP to be town now. I don't think anyone was really on the Caniks wagon before rhiz claim. Lego and Maz but they vote for anything, which I'm not saying its a bad thing.
Again don't ignore this part. I believe being on canik wagon after his claim is a not sign of towniness. Anyone claiming that it is and trying to present them self as town and others as scum. People later on the wagon are more likely to be scum IMO. Therefore,

Vote d34th

 

Again he is trying to confuse town and deny them confirmation and thus keep them as possible scum candidates in the future. This part especially: "I don't think anyone was really on the Caniks wagon before rhiz claim" - while there was Me and Mazuurek (implying Mazuurek is not confirmed by his voting because "he votes on anything" - but if he were a scum he wouldn't vote his own).

He also stays away from voting 1ceCream, pushing for presumable town.

 

3. Last scum is still unknown. It's either Samus / King Hitler or Preston

[SeaBeeGipson]

Wow, that was a lot of reading. I won't lie. At some parts, I got tired and skimmed, so apologize if i missed important information (mainly the novels that Preston has been posting.)

 

 

 

 

I'll refrain from releasing my Night 3 target.  

The result was "did not do anything" so sharing the information would only tell the scum who does not have a power role.

 

Thank you! I've been noticing you doing that reading over and kept telling myself "No! Stop!" I understand trying to save yourself, but I won't lie. I had a fear, I'd open the page to D4 and see another name mentioned.

 

Hi guys, sorry situation hasn't changed, i've asked TW to replace me
 
 

Still fingering Samus. SAMs has temporarily been put on my scummiest list because of his recent post. I look forward to seeing what he has to say.

 
 
May I just note here.
 
What exactly was scummy about what I had to say? You never explained it at all?
 
I never mentioned anything about the current state of the game, only about the state of my activity, i'm curious what you deciphered from that or is that just a random accusation with no basis?
 
Also even with my activity issues I was still more active with more posts than the majority of current players.
 
Probably be my last post here, but i'd suggest you guys look at the string of SM's posts. They haven't really been pro pro town imo.

Clarification, I meant that if Samus posted more, or if he bowed out (which would suck, and does suck, no offense to King) I would stop being suspicious.

 

 I was going to ask the same thing Samus did. How did a post not mentioning the game come off as a reason to put Samus (myself now) deeper on your scum list? I appreciate the clarification, but that did raise a red flag to me.

 

What I've gathered so far. I'm still trying to get a feel for who to vote for. FoS iceCream because Rhizo seemed to want him gone. Maybe Rhizo, in my experienced a good player, seen a connection between him and scum. Solidified by his Vig killed that took out another scum. Samus last game pretty much nailed all of us that were on the scum team fairly easily once he figured one out. Maybe Rhizo did the same? Still, IceCream is new and I don't know exactly what lead Rhizo to suspect him or even his playstyle. I'd rather keep it at a FoS because 1) hate for my first pick to be off limited knowledge and end the day fast. 2) Based on the past few days, if he turns up town, it'd put us in a rough position. I'm not 100% sure yet to make that call.

 

 A lot of what I was tracking as I read through is fairly useless at this point. For example, Day 1 I noted Rafay is being Rafay. Lego is fairly aggressive and day ended in no lynch.

 

The parts I do feel are useful.

 

Rhizo's Roleclaim and Vig kill proved a few things. He was town and gave us a decent chance to come back by taking out 2 scum, leaving me to believe we have 2 or 3 left. Judging by the votes to kill by deadline, I'm inclined to think 2 remain. It also proved there is no second doctor. So, any further PRs should trend carefully as we can't afford them to come out with limited information that doesn't help and risk a lynch.  By this point, Kevin's RC looks true to me. So, we can figure Preston or SM are either VT or Ninja. Also depends on who Kevin invesitgated for N3. 

Lego and Maz were quick on the wagon for Canik, even before Rhizo's claim. I don't think that should be thrown out just because they have erratic voting behaviors.

 

As for right now, I'll sum up my feelings.

 

Town-Vibe:

KevinH - His RC makes sense at this point

SM and Preston - both give off townie vibes but I won't lie. I'm suspicious at the no action taken and have a feeling there is a ninja (hence Kevin still being alive.) This seems to be another VT-heavy game.

Lego - I won't lie. Early on I was suspicious, but it just came off as you being an aggressive, new player. Not really scum vibe, but questionable. At this point, you seem to have a strong townie feel, especially after the Canik vote.

Death - I kept feeling during your back and forth with Lego it came off as two townies arguing. I can stand by your early statement that Fb felt townie, even early on. However, it is still questionable how you came out with almost certainty he was, without any knowledge as to why. Makes me feel you were looking for a town "buddy" early on, in the event you got lynched to bring attention elsewhere. This is, of course, from D1 posts. Nothing to really be concerned with as I have a decent townie vibe to put you on the town side, but I'll probably keep a close eye.

 

Scum-Vibe:

IceCream - Rhizo seemed to be nailing this game on its head and has made good decision. I wouldn't doubt he seen something with this claim.

 

Not sure:

AbT - you did help town alot by noticing the free no lynch day we had, but trying to ignore Maz and Lego's vote on Canik seems you might be testing the waters with a new possible target after IceCream. I'm about 70/30 here. Leaning more towards town, especially given his most recent post. He noted what I was thinking about a Ninja, he noticed that the role PMs do not say Hogwarts VT.

Isocialism - Typically, in games I played with him. He stays quiet until around this day or the next and comes out swinging. I'm not sure if him trying to get a vote on Death was him coming out swinging, hes just trying to avoid being detected, he knows something we don't or AbT is right and he is scum. There is too many possibilities with him for me to be sure, especially knowing his play style.

Wolfpacks - I've gotten mixed vibes from WP mroe than anyone else reading over the game. One day he feels townie, the next scum. I'm not even sure how to go about him, but hopefully I can get a vibe pending his future posts.

 

I guess since I replaced Samus I have a lot to stand to, replacing one of the more experienced players. Beyond that, looks like me and him won't have our back and forth this game. 

 

Anyway, I'm happy to be in the game and hope after a few more pages, I can get a good feel on people and catch up.

[legoboyvdlp]

If you hammer 1ceCream thats loads of townie points for you, KH. I mean, he's an obvious scum, and I'm not sure, but would a scum hammer a scum?

I'll watch your behaviour, and welcome to the game!

[1ceCream]

Cool.

 

@AbT I'm new as shit, this is my first game EVER. I've NEVER RC'd before.

 

So now in everyone's eyes I'm scum now. This is my first time playing Mafia, I'm a noob. I'm going to flip town on Tuesday, but I understand why I'm dead right now and I'm probably not going to see tomorrow. I know I'm so scummy, but I don't know how to play yet. 

 

Now ultimately some of you are going to think I'm pretty experienced at Mafia but painted myself as a noob on here, stating this was my first game. I get that, however look at how nooby I am. Day 1, Lego called me inexperienced town and kept with that conclusion until D3 when Rhizo stated I was probably scum and he flipped town. Also, AbT pointed out my RC inconsistency, pretty much guaranteeing that any attempt to try to save myself from the chopping block is going into the dumpster. But, I'm new as shit, this is my first game EVER. I've NEVER RC'd before.

Ultimately, I can't really do anything but hope that townies on my wagon pull out. But, looking at the mass of evidence on me, I'd say the chances of that happening are astronomically low. I've really got nothing to say as I go down, but I really hope we can lynch scum D5 using all we got from the previous days work.

[Preston]

Since we're at 5 votes on 1cecream I'm not going to hammer the day so that we have more time to talk, but between iSocialism and 1cecream I can see testing either as viable scum prospects. If conversation dies down mid-weekend we can go ahead and push for the next day.

I was a little curious about SM's response to Samus, but her clarification helped. Interesting to note that in his parting post Samus tried to throw suspicion on SM, however.

Ali's post had an interesting discussion about KevinH still being alive as a Tracker and what that means - I think that scum have had valid reasons to target other people than Kevin for N2/N3, even though know that until today scum had a trackable Role Cop - so Kevin could have seen CoD's action, though that would have just led to CoD role claiming a normal role cop. So odds are good that the scum are looking for our normal cop and other roles, if we have one at all - and unfortunately while we speculate about what Kevin's results mean, to scum it's just narrowing their search down.

However the rest of Ali's analysis about 1cecream and iSocialism seems to have merit, and the way votes are looking we'll test one of them tonight.

Also welcome to King Hitler replacing Samus. This thread has indeed had a lot to read, including a VERY active Day 1 - but people have gotten quieter now. Also you missed where Kevin revealed his N3 tracked target, that was iSocialism.

KH comments on this being a VT-heavy game; on the one hand we have only seen one *proven* VT at this point, but on the other if there are 5 scum as seems to be the common guess - how many roles would we expect town to have? 18 total - 5 scum = 13 town, what portion of that would you expect to be roles - 6 or 7? Whatever your answer, the rest would be VT. It probably will just feel like more because of the larger game size.

Interesting that KH's first post includes being unsure of Ali. If he is reading through the thread in order I can understand him still being unsure of Wolfpacks, though - there were valid reasons I suspected him yesterday, and only with CoD revealed as town did that analysis shift.

-Preston

Addendum: Apparently Lego and 1cecream posted while I was writing, though I did briefly walk away. I don't know that a hammer here would be townie points as lego suggests... it would only end the day faster and end discussion, which is the whole reason I haven't voted already. As for 1cecream, he seems to be doubling down on his newness as a defense - at this point we have no better information to judge between him and iSocialism, so small details like what Ali noticed carry a lot of weight. If he's really town we still have some breathing room due to the two scum Rhizo found - and even dead townies win if the town wins.

[iSocialism]

AbT the same can go for you pushing hard to have everyone on canik consider town even though after rhiz s claim it was certain that canik would be lynched and not being on would mean you will be suspect if he turn out scum. What about CoD, someone said he got extra bonus points for laying the hammer on canik, but he turned out to be scum as well. How did his vote and the townie points not save him from being scum?

If you know someone is to be destined to be lynched any scum would hop on that wagon. There is some reason you are trying to convince the others that "I'm miss leading the town" could this also be the same reason you are miss leading the town, IMO.

It would be a real safe play to hide among the town and be in the wagon. Call it a band wagon full of town people while knowing where the scum were at. The town people on the wagon knowing only to them self that they are 100% town would relate and believe that because they lynched a scum and that it benefited the town. That anyone on that wagon helped the town.

I would be cautious to everyone, do your own homework in these later day. If you're good player you shouldn't be misled.

I'm not accusing you as scum, nor anyone simply because they were on or off canik wagon. I said that only rhiz was on the wagon besides Lego and maz both the role claim. Lego and maz vote for anyone. I ALSO said that it wasn't a bad thing. And I haven't considered them scum at all since or too much before. However on my first statement I noted the fos. fOS can add pressure to that person. How I feel about FOS is another story. Though A fos can encourage people to vote for that person without necessarily getting involved in the actually voting, more of testing the wagon. I consider for fos more as prodding people indirectly, it neither a scum tell or tell town by itself.

My vote on d34th follows simply because he was late on the wagon, I don't think Preston is scum, and I don't think I'm either. Saying don't lynch me because I'm town and you'll be sorry doesn't work for me. My only defense is to plead a case about the people I suspect, and get other people to look at the evidence and come up with a vote for whomever they choose.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

AbT the same can go for you pushing hard to have everyone on canik consider town even though after rhiz s claim it was certain that canik would be lynched and not being on would mean you will be suspect if he turn out scum. What about CoD, someone said he got extra bonus points for laying the hammer on canik, but he turned out to be scum as well. How did his vote and the townie points not save him from being scum?

If you know someone is to be destined to be lynched any scum would hop on that wagon. There is some reason you are trying to convince the others that "I'm miss leading the town" could this also be the same reason you are miss leading the town, IMO.

It would be a real safe play to hide among the town and be in the wagon. Call it a band wagon full of town people while knowing where the scum were at. The town people on the wagon knowing only to them self that they are 100% town would relate and believe that because they lynched a scum and that it benefited the town. That anyone on that wagon helped the town.

I would be cautious to everyone, do your own homework in these later day. If you're good player you shouldn't be misled.

I'm not accusing you as scum, nor anyone simply because they were on or off canik wagon. I said that only rhiz was on the wagon besides Lego and maz both the role claim. Lego and maz vote for anyone. I ALSO said that it wasn't a bad thing. And I haven't considered them scum at all since or too much before. However on my first statement I noted the fos. fOS can add pressure to that person. How I feel about FOS is another story. Though A fos can encourage people to vote for that person without necessarily getting involved in the actually voting, more of testing the wagon. I consider for fos more as prodding people indirectly, it neither a scum tell or tell town by itself.

My vote on d34th follows simply because he was late on the wagon, I don't think Preston is scum, and I don't think I'm either. Saying don't lynch me because I'm town and you'll be sorry doesn't work for me. My only defense is to plead a case about the people I suspect, and get other people to look at the evidence and come up with a vote for whomever they choose.

because I was late on a scum vote... really? I knew he was scum and I knew the vote requirement was already met so I voted because TW wasn't there at the time and took a little while to end the day. Again I was late on a SCUM lynch. You are just digging yourself a bigger hole for me. Being late on a lynch of a scum doesn't mean that I am scum...

[Ali bin Turban]

@ISoc:

So I say "everyone on Canik wagon before Rhizo made RC" are confirmed and you try to twist it into "everyone on Canik's wagon". It's obvious that jumping on Canik after RC does nothing to confirm and I've mentioned that - your further argument about Cod (and next following paragraphs) is therefore completely missed. If you want to discuss something, don't lie.

 

Your "FoS" stories are nice, but that's not how you get scum lynched. And fact is that you didn't took part in a vote.

Also please do share your thoughts on how can I be trying to misslead town. By voting on Canik when noone else but Rhizo/Mazuurek wanted to lynch him? Maybe by pushing CoD and trying to convince others he's a scum (Rhizo was pointing mainly at Canik, 1ceCream...yet he decided to kill CoD - I'd like to think I got my share in making him a target for Vig kill)? Or doing the same with 1ceCream?

 

You're a scum, squirming and trying to throw accusation on others, but all you can do is to lie and hope noone notice that.

 

@Lego - you're jumping into wrong conclusions. 1ceCream's fate is mostly decided now. Few other people would jump already, but that would end day prematurely...so making a vote (unless we've discussed all that was to be discussed) would not be townish but rather scummy.

 

@1ceCream - all you needed to do would be just copy paste your role. You could also simply write that you're VT with your name (for instance check Lego's caim, it looks careless). It seems to me however that the way you wrote shows it was done carefully : "My Role: Justin Finch-Fletchley, a Hogwarts VT." You wanted it to look correct but it failed.

[Ali bin Turban]

AbT - you did help town alot by noticing the free no lynch day we had, but trying to ignore Maz and Lego's vote on Canik seems you might be testing the waters with a new possible target after IceCream. I'm about 70/30 here. Leaning more towards town, especially given his most recent post. He noted what I was thinking about a Ninja, he noticed that the role PMs do not say Hogwarts VT.

 

What exactly are you trying to say? I've been posting that quite a few times and it was in colors - rather impossible to miss. I'll quote that again just for you

 - Mazuurek: Confirmed - Has been on Canik's wagon before RC.

 - legoboyvdlp: Confirmed - Canik voted on him.

So again, what are you trying to imply?

 

Also Wolfpack is also pretty much confirmed town due to the fact that CoD who pushed for his lynch turned out scum. You're looking for your scapegoats in a wrong place.

[The Warrior]

Mod note for clarity:

Quoting your role PM is actually against the rules.

Basic rules for maintaining the integrity of the game thread are in effect (i.e. players may not quote their Role PMs, nor may they discuss the game outside the game thread unless otherwise permitted, etc.)

[iSocialism]

When I say after the RC, I mean the people who voted after the RC. I don't know if there was confusion on that part.

Lego and maz will vote for almost anything, I'm not calling them out. I just see it more as they didn't heavily believe canik was scum besides maybe Lego. He encourage people to vote but didn't go into to much details.

My fos stories are about someone else not myself, so you need to tell them that's not how you get scum lynched. As for my vote, it wasn't needed, and again my statement. COD was scum, my vote wouldn't have matter either way. It doesn't prove that I'm or I'm not scum/town. By itself it only shows that I voted for canik. There's nothing misleading about your vote. The part in which you are misleading town was more of a rhetorical question. You focusing so hard on me and not providing much evidence, and just going off on how I'm scum, everything I do is scummy that post I made was scummy so on and so on. Let people decide, stop trying to label me as scum and keep calling me scum so other people will go for that. That's what's misleading. Please provide evidence such as my non vote. It's good evidence in which I made my case for. Calling me scum, and saying you know your scum. Doesn't show anyone anything, only that you think I'm scum.

People have doubts my wagon dead off for someone else.

I haven't called you scum. I believe you honestly think I'm scum. However, I'm pleading my case as best as possible. I also think this is now going no where besides repeating what we have already said.

[SeaBeeGipson]

 

AbT - you did help town alot by noticing the free no lynch day we had, but trying to ignore Maz and Lego's vote on Canik seems you might be testing the waters with a new possible target after IceCream. I'm about 70/30 here. Leaning more towards town, especially given his most recent post. He noted what I was thinking about a Ninja, he noticed that the role PMs do not say Hogwarts VT.

 

What exactly are you trying to say? I've been posting that quite a few times and it was in colors - rather impossible to miss. I'll quote that again just for you

 - Mazuurek: Confirmed - Has been on Canik's wagon before RC.

 - legoboyvdlp: Confirmed - Canik voted on him.

So again, what are you trying to imply?

 

Also Wolfpack is also pretty much confirmed town due to the fact that CoD who pushed for his lynch turned out scum. You're looking for your scapegoats in a wrong place.

 

 

Actually I'll post updated list, since more than 2 things have changed

 

Wolfpacks : I believe scums are piling on him to save Canik - so he must be town.

Mazuurek: Confirmed - Has been on Canik's wagon before RC.

Ali bin Turban: Confirmed - Has been on Canik's wagon before RC, pointed out CoD as a second scum.

D34THBR1NG3R: Probably town, but I don't know for sure, though he seems straightforward and not hiding anything.

Finster Baby: I've explained why I got townie feel out of him.

1ceCream: I was connecting him with Lego mostly...he still has scum feel, but not the primary target.

iSocialism: Votes on wrong people, not willing to vote on Canik. Leading town astray...in my opinion.

KevinH: Confirmed - voted on by CoD on D2 (also other supposed scums, like ISoc and Samus were on his wagon)

legoboyvdlp: Confirmed - Canik voted on him.

Preston : Unknown, but might be a town.

Samus : Idon't think he helped town at all. Lurking on D3. Known only for shouting at Rafay / Lego's voters (Rafay voters - except for Canik all town, so it's easy to shout on them as a scum: KevinH, Canik, Lyner, legoboyvdlp, D34THBR1NG3R, Finster Baby). Was on Canik's "suspects" list (as Rhizo has pointed out, Canik list was "Lego, Rhizo, FB, and Samus" so most probably it was to cover Samus, assuming FB is town).

Sister Midnight: Jumped on Canik, but a moment to late to get confirmed in my eyes. Still more townish than scummy...actually I'll give her more townie points, because she jumped immediatelly after RC, while all other scum suspects were very hesitant.

 

I'll admit. Had to look back for this. I skipped this one because I thought I'd see a more updated list later on. That really was the only thing raising a question to me about you. I'll have to look back for your reasoning on FB. As far as Wolfpacks, scum voting scum isn't too uncommon, but I'll look back to see if it was Canik jumping into an already established wagon (which would have the possibility of scum voting scum) or if Canik created a wagon.

If you hammer 1ceCream thats loads of townie points for you, KH. I mean, he's an obvious scum, and I'm not sure, but would a scum hammer a scum?

I'll watch your behaviour, and welcome to the game!

 

Actually, that'd be pretty scummy. If IceCream flips town, I'd be the guy who hammered the vote on a townie. If hes scum, I'd hammer an already establish vote, proving nothing at all. Again, the only reason I feel Ice is on a wagon is due to Rhizo pushing hard for him and him being right with his Vig Kill. As far as when I was skimming though, Ice came across as an inexperienced townie. I'll have to look back for this as well when I get some time. But I don't feel comfortable hammering a vote on my first few posts on a guy that my only evidence so far that I've found on him is "Rhizo said so".

Cool.

 

@AbT I'm new as shit, this is my first game EVER. I've NEVER RC'd before.

 

So now in everyone's eyes I'm scum now. This is my first time playing Mafia, I'm a noob. I'm going to flip town on Tuesday, but I understand why I'm dead right now and I'm probably not going to see tomorrow. I know I'm so scummy, but I don't know how to play yet. 

 

Now ultimately some of you are going to think I'm pretty experienced at Mafia but painted myself as a noob on here, stating this was my first game. I get that, however look at how nooby I am. Day 1, Lego called me inexperienced town and kept with that conclusion until D3 when Rhizo stated I was probably scum and he flipped town. Also, AbT pointed out my RC inconsistency, pretty much guaranteeing that any attempt to try to save myself from the chopping block is going into the dumpster. But, I'm new as shit, this is my first game EVER. I've NEVER RC'd before.

Ultimately, I can't really do anything but hope that townies on my wagon pull out. But, looking at the mass of evidence on me, I'd say the chances of that happening are astronomically low. I've really got nothing to say as I go down, but I really hope we can lynch scum D5 using all we got from the previous days work.

Does this seem like a scum dying? If I was scum and in his position, I'd have either 1) realized the inevitable in my death and tried to create a mass amount of confusion (last game for example) or 2) tried to bring someone down with me. To me, this looks like an inexperienced townie that is still trying to reason for him to stay alive. However, the RC inconsistency he said AbT mentioned is something to look back on. If someone could point that out to me? I can't seem to find that. 

 

Since we're at 5 votes on 1cecream I'm not going to hammer the day so that we have more time to talk, but between iSocialism and 1cecream I can see testing either as viable scum prospects. If conversation dies down mid-weekend we can go ahead and push for the next day.

I was a little curious about SM's response to Samus, but her clarification helped. Interesting to note that in his parting post Samus tried to throw suspicion on SM, however.

Ali's post had an interesting discussion about KevinH still being alive as a Tracker and what that means - I think that scum have had valid reasons to target other people than Kevin for N2/N3, even though know that until today scum had a trackable Role Cop - so Kevin could have seen CoD's action, though that would have just led to CoD role claiming a normal role cop. So odds are good that the scum are looking for our normal cop and other roles, if we have one at all - and unfortunately while we speculate about what Kevin's results mean, to scum it's just narrowing their search down.

However the rest of Ali's analysis about 1cecream and iSocialism seems to have merit, and the way votes are looking we'll test one of them tonight.

Also welcome to King Hitler replacing Samus. This thread has indeed had a lot to read, including a VERY active Day 1 - but people have gotten quieter now. Also you missed where Kevin revealed his N3 tracked target, that was iSocialism.

KH comments on this being a VT-heavy game; on the one hand we have only seen one *proven* VT at this point, but on the other if there are 5 scum as seems to be the common guess - how many roles would we expect town to have? 18 total - 5 scum = 13 town, what portion of that would you expect to be roles - 6 or 7? Whatever your answer, the rest would be VT. It probably will just feel like more because of the larger game size.

Interesting that KH's first post includes being unsure of Ali. If he is reading through the thread in order I can understand him still being unsure of Wolfpacks, though - there were valid reasons I suspected him yesterday, and only with CoD revealed as town did that analysis shift.

-Preston

Addendum: Apparently Lego and 1cecream posted while I was writing, though I did briefly walk away. I don't know that a hammer here would be townie points as lego suggests... it would only end the day faster and end discussion, which is the whole reason I haven't voted already. As for 1cecream, he seems to be doubling down on his newness as a defense - at this point we have no better information to judge between him and iSocialism, so small details like what Ali noticed carry a lot of weight. If he's really town we still have some breathing room due to the two scum Rhizo found - and even dead townies win if the town wins.

 

A few thing about this post, because I really seemed to like it.

1) It feels like a VT-heavy game with everyone claiming VT. By now, I would've expected more PRs to come out, but I feel the scum have taken a majority out. Doctor, watcher and JoAT's are gone. Scum had Cop and strongman. It is highly likely scum has a ninja left. Its possible scum even have a fourth PR. Like I said, a heavy-VT game, not VT and goon. Given scums success so far, despite the last day, I wouldn't be surprised to see another PR. 

As far as VTs, Rafay was the only confirmed, but Kevin has pretty much confirmed 3 (SM, yourself, and Isocialism (which I still haven't found this post.) Lego has claimed VT, as well as two other people I believe. I had it in my notes before I closed everything but I believe it was Death and Maz who claimed to be VT? Even if we have a ninja, or even 2, in that mix. It leaves a decent amount of VTs. Maybe it is the large amount of people, but it feels everyone is claiming VT, so it feels VT-heavy.

 

I can't remember who said it, but someone said we have to rely on our selves at this point. I think not being swayed easily is a good tactic at this point and we all need to think for ourselves, not jump on wagons. Judging by how many townies have died so far, jumping on a wagon because other people feel this or that isn't working. We need to think for ourselves if we want to win. I see a wagon on Ice, but again, most the evidence is "Rhizo said '...'" and AbT finding a role inconsistency. Which, given my play style, I lie about my role almost every game. Whether town or scum. 

 

(Found the role inconsistency while I was writing this and don't feel like deleting everything and rewriting.)

 

I was thinking he had claimed a PR, I kept thinking "What Rc inconsistency" then it hit me, "Oh, ya! the Hogwarts VT thing." I feel like an idiot because I definitely seen that a few times.

 

That does raise a few questions. But I'd like to think it was laziness that he didn't want to go to his messages and copy/paste, or even inexperience to where he didn't know that was possible. It doesn't raise a big enough red flag to kill him, granted I don't think we have many more mistakes we can afford. AbT, can you do the math at this point of how many mislynches we can afford? You do a good job on that.

 

 

If I missed anything, just question me on it. I think I hit everything by now in my first two posts.

[Sister Midnight]

AbT - you did help town alot by noticing the free no lynch day we had, but trying to ignore Maz and Lego's vote on Canik seems you might be testing the waters with a new possible target after IceCream. I'm about 70/30 here. Leaning more towards town, especially given his most recent post. He noted what I was thinking about a Ninja, he noticed that the role PMs do not say Hogwarts VT.

 
What exactly are you trying to say? I've been posting that quite a few times and it was in colors - rather impossible to miss. I'll quote that again just for you
 - Mazuurek: Confirmed - Has been on Canik's wagon before RC.
 - legoboyvdlp: Confirmed - Canik voted on him.
So again, what are you trying to imply?
 
Also Wolfpack is also pretty much confirmed town due to the fact that CoD who pushed for his lynch turned out scum. You're looking for your scapegoats in a wrong place.

Oh! Very good points! I didn't consider the Wolfy aspect.

[Ali bin Turban]

Hmm...I must admit I'm concerned by SM's actions on D4

- She wagoned on Preston immediately.

- Wagon reached 3, then fall back to 2 due to 1ceCream wagon buildup, then SM has left Preston too.

- She said her top suspects were 1ceCream, ISoc (http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57842-tw-03-harry-potter-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-mafia-day-4/page-33#entry877724) yet she hasn't voted on any of them even though she got opportunity to do so - for instance at that moment of making that post I've quoted 1ceCream got only one vote on him.

 

Secondly, funny thing about Preston and ISoc...

 

Funny thing is I made my statement because I don't think Preston is scum and didn't want him to be lynched.

 

I'm starting to think that's the only moment ISoc didn't lied and Preson is a town indeed (it would be quite risky for the suspected scum to try and cover his buddies).

 

Also, iSoc:

- You've not voted on Canik and also were challenging Rhizo's claim along with CoD and Preston.

- Again you're not interesting in voting on 1ceCream (your choice...but not even talking about him).

- On D4 you insisted Wolfpack hasn't been cleared, as if you were not present on D3 and didn't saw how hard CoD pushed his lynch.

- You claim noone was interested in voting Canik until Rhizo RCed, while there were 2 people (other than Rhizo) on that wagon before he RCed.

- When showing what's been happening with Canik's / Wolfpacks votes in a step by step fashion, you "forgot" to mention that you did vote on Wolfpack when it was Canik(3) / Wolfpack(2).

- You've trouble showing your scum suspects...voting on Death just because he was the last one to jump on Canik...after 3 days that's the best you can do.

- Lying that I've said that everyone on Canik's wagon is confirmed.

 

You started D4 from quoting one of the oldest Rhizo's lists saing "We get a new list from Rhiz"

 

Thirdly I'm concerned with KH too. At first he mentions 1ceCream as his only scum suspect and in the next he starts defending him.

 

Sumary:

Assuming there were no weird scenarios when scums were trying to lynch other scums (I'm not talking about scum jumping on other scum when it's obvious he'll get lynched anyway) our list of confirmed townies is as follow:

- Wolfpacks, Mazuurek, Ali bin Turban, KevinH, legoboyvdlp

If (or I'd rather say when) 1ceCream turns out scum it will additionally confirm D34THBR1NG3R. I believe Finster Baby is a town too (and if ISoc/1ceCream turn out to be scums it will pretty much confirm him too).

 

Were left with:

- 1ceCream

- iSocialism

- King Hitler

- Sister Midnight

- Preston

 

Now assuming Death and Finster are town:

 

If there are 3 scums among those 5 then it means we have 2 misses possible (we'll lose after 3rd mistake)...so we can lynch those 5 pretty much randomly and we'll win anyway. Same way if there are just 2 scums left in game (we have 3 misses possible then).

 

That means that in order to win this game, the only thing we really need to do right now is to find 2 more confirmed town (so we either confirm Death and FB or we confirm someone else).

[legoboyvdlp]

And to do that we lynch 1ceCream, I think Ali?

[Preston]

@King Hitler:
To an extent we are in a process-of-elimination game right now. With two known scum we can look who they voted for when the pressure was on, and see who they'd have rathered get lynched over who did. It turns into a lot of assumptions about 'confirmed' town though, and if at some point scum pushed their own the whole chain could break down - but right now without a further investigative role that's all we've got.

It's also notable that when Rhizo started a wagon on 1ceCream on D3, it didn't really go anywhere. Given the number of people who jump onto existing wagons this game, that lack of bandwagoning could mean that the other scum stayed off of it because it was one of their own. The same happened when Rhizo's wagon switched to Canik, and then when I started a wagon on Wolfpacks at first it went nowhere... but then others abruptly piled on.

Also, you mention you lie about your role nearly every game - be careful about that, because "Lynch All Liars" is quite common. It only hurts the town when a townie lies for no good reason and paints themselves as scum.

At the moment I have the strongest scum feel from iSocialism and 1ceCream - I'd lean more towards iSocialism than 1ceCream on the basis of my earlier theory that CoD didn't immediately join my wagon because iSoc was already there, but with Kevin's result I'm fine testing 1ceCream first. However picking a third scum doesn't quite sit that clearly for me - Samus's silence (that you inherited) made him look like he was lurking, but that seems a little too simple of an explanation. I would not be surprised if the third scum lies somewhere else than where we're looking now, and that may become clearer once we have another confirmed scum and can see who they did/didn't vote for.

-Preston

[Preston]

And apparently Ali just posted in the ~30 minutes that I was reading back, with Lego asking for confirmation right after it I need to preview before just hitting Post.

@Lego:
I think we're pretty clear right now that 1ceCream is the scum candidate we intend to test today, and Ali gave what results he believes will be confirmed if 1ceCream turns out to be scum. It strikes me as a little odd that you need to post asking for confirmation about that though, when it's pretty clearly spelled out.

@Ali:
SM's status has been interesting for me because she was the first "Nothing happened" result KevinH provided with his tracker RC. When I suspected Kevin more, it was on the basis that she could have been scum giving him a safe claim on D2; with the addition of CoD as a Role Cop it is fully possible that Kevin's results could have followed from CoD identifying VT's. However we also have CoD who voted on Kevin and got him to L-1, and the odds of Kevin still being fake are much lower since iSoc has not contested Kevin's N3 result.

So I started with seeing SM as a potential scum-accomplice to Kevin, and with Kevin looking more town that doesnt apply as much anymore... but it felt like her vanilla-ness was otherwise taken as a given in the discussion after Kevin's initial claim - there does not seem to have been a lot of actual attention focused on her since then aside from noting her vote shifts on Finster, etc.

She also was voicing support for the Wolfpacks wagon later on D3 after CoD pushed Wolfpacks and the bandwagoning started, but did not actually vote for it. This could have been a townie convinced by everything that was said, but instead of jumping her vote quickly she held off for a while.

It's worth keeping her on a list to examine at least, and if I get more time this weekend it may be worth reading back on her D1/2/3 positions.

-Preston

[Sister Midnight]

Hmm...I must admit I'm concerned by SM's actions on D4
- She wagoned on Preston immediately.
- Wagon reached 3, then fall back to 2 due to 1ceCream wagon buildup, then SM has left Preston too.
- She said her top suspects were 1ceCream, ISoc (http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57842-tw-03-harry-potter-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-mafia-day-4/page-33#entry877724) yet she hasn't voted on any of them even though she got opportunity to do so - for instance at that moment of making that post I've quoted 1ceCream got only one vote on him.
 
Secondly, funny thing about Preston and ISoc...
 

Funny thing is I made my statement because I don't think Preston is scum and didn't want him to be lynched.

 
I'm starting to think that's the only moment ISoc didn't lied and Preson is a town indeed (it would be quite risky for the suspected scum to try and cover his buddies).
 
Also, iSoc:
- You've not voted on Canik and also were challenging Rhizo's claim along with CoD and Preston.
- Again you're not interesting in voting on 1ceCream (your choice...but not even talking about him).
- On D4 you insisted Wolfpack hasn't been cleared, as if you were not present on D3 and didn't saw how hard CoD pushed his lynch.
- You claim noone was interested in voting Canik until Rhizo RCed, while there were 2 people (other than Rhizo) on that wagon before he RCed.
- When showing what's been happening with Canik's / Wolfpacks votes in a step by step fashion, you "forgot" to mention that you did vote on Wolfpack when it was Canik(3) / Wolfpack(2).
- You've trouble showing your scum suspects...voting on Death just because he was the last one to jump on Canik...after 3 days that's the best you can do.
- Lying that I've said that everyone on Canik's wagon is confirmed.
 
You started D4 from quoting one of the oldest Rhizo's lists saing "We get a new list from Rhiz"
 
Thirdly I'm concerned with KH too. At first he mentions 1ceCream as his only scum suspect and in the next he starts defending him.
 
Sumary:
Assuming there were no weird scenarios when scums were trying to lynch other scums (I'm not talking about scum jumping on other scum when it's obvious he'll get lynched anyway) our list of confirmed townies is as follow:
- Wolfpacks, Mazuurek, Ali bin Turban, KevinH, legoboyvdlp
If (or I'd rather say when) 1ceCream turns out scum it will additionally confirm D34THBR1NG3R. I believe Finster Baby is a town too (and if ISoc/1ceCream turn out to be scums it will pretty much confirm him too).
 
Were left with:
- 1ceCream
- iSocialism
- King Hitler
- Sister Midnight
- Preston
 
Now assuming Death and Finster are town:
 
If there are 3 scums among those 5 then it means we have 2 misses possible (we'll lose after 3rd mistake)...so we can lynch those 5 pretty much randomly and we'll win anyway. Same way if there are just 2 scums left in game (we have 3 misses possible then).
 
That means that in order to win this game, the only thing we really need to do right now is to find 2 more confirmed town (so we either confirm Death and FB or we confirm someone else).

I believe I explained my actions, but to refresh you, I was on long car ride, I saw Preston wagon building, didn't want to prematurely lynch and was unsure of vote count, so I unvoted. Points were raised about ISoc and Icecream and I decided Icecream is scummier than Preston, who still looks scummy to me, although he laid out a good defense. The only reasons I haven't vote for Icecream at this point is we have until Tuesday and if I vote for him now it will automatically end the day, and I feel kind of bad for him since this is his first game ever. The strongest reason to vote for him is Rhiz's assessment, which is softened slightly by his newbie excuses.

At this point it is down to Icecream, Preston, and ISoc in that order. I do not understand what you find odd about my behavior, I am still on vacation with limited internet devices and usage, so reading back and quoting is hard for me, but if you read back, you will see all of this layed out.