that wagon not only formed fast but nearly went though on day 1, and early. We would of gained nothing from the lynch if he flipped town other then a townie down with limited info with proballty the last guy on the wagon stating, "I didn't know he had that many votes already". Especially if it was a newer player. 

 

 

So, Rafay have you already RC as a VT?

 

Yeah.

 

I bet that there are at least 2 scum in my wagon which formed really quickly. The rest are just jealous votes tbh.... 

Jealous....lol. 

 

Rafay, is that all your going to post? 

That escalated quickly tbh, at least Rafay learned to roleclaim instead of being stubborn like he usually did

 

 

We have almost a week left before deadline, I'd rather pressure other lurkers first

 

 

Vote: Kaziocore

 

 

That escalated quickly tbh, at least Rafay learned to roleclaim instead of being stubborn like he usually did     We have almost a week left before deadline, I'd rather pressure other lurkers first  

 

On that note......

 

Vote: CoD..... 

 

I'm not the only 'lurker'; actually I'm not even a lurker. I'm pretty active. You guys need to develop and better peripheral vision.

If Rafay's gonna be active, then I'll:

 

UNVOTE

 

With plenty of time to see who is actually gonna participate.

 

 

Since Ali has unvoted for now, Rafay is no longer in immediate danger of being lynched so he has time to share his thoughts. I'd like to hear what you think up to this point, Rafay. Do you actually suspect Finster or was it more of a omgus vote on him?

 

I second TW's question. Share your thoughts Rafay. What do you think about the setup? How do you envision it to play out? Do you have any advice for the town? For now you're just posting without contributing.

That being said we shouldn't forgot about Kazio (while CoD posted little too, there's substance in his post), it seems he's just the same as Rafay and he should post some thoughts too.

 

I'm more interested in what we gain from a Rafay lynch. To me, it wont show much.

He comes up scum, good job. We got one scum down. This does not mean the alternate scums arent on his wagon or arenot hiding in his wagon. We dont get much towards our next scum.

If he comes up town, not too much harm. It seems heavily town sided if we have only 2 scum, and we have some mislynches to go through. But what can we learn? We look at the wagon and it could be a multitude of excuses from "just lynching an active lurker" to anything else. It leaves an easy spot for scum to hide for another day. (Note: this is one reason why lurking hurts the town.)

 

That's the problem of this scenario. I'd really like to lynch lurkers because of their toxic playstyle, but most of the time it hurt's town (like 3 in 4 times we loose a mislynch chance to enforce activity policy). It would be great if instead of us Mod had made a quick work of slackers, especially since they're the ones destroying his game. Also we have just 10 players and replacement should be easily possible.

 

Anyway, how things look for us right now:

 - We have no idea if there's a cop aboard (there's 32% chance that we don't have any, 40% we have 1-shot, 21% we have standard cop and 7% chance we got something more) so NL stance would be a risky move.

 

HOWEVER:

 

 - If there are 3 scum (and as I've shown earlier it's almost 2 times more probable) we're allowed to make just one mistake. So in that scenario misslynch today would mean LYLO tomorrow (technically we're in a better position if there are 2 scums...but that means there were 7 T's which equals to no PRs)

 - On the other hand we're allowed to make one NL (due to even number of players) without loosing a misslynch chance. But for it to have effect we'd need to have cop...and we don't have that knowledge.

 

It's not a trivial choice.

 

 

I second TW's question. Share your thoughts Rafay. What do you think about the setup? How do you envision it to play out? Do you have any advice for the town? For now you're just posting without contributing.

 

I'm always anti-1st day lynch every game. I believe it reveals nothing and decreases the town's chances of winning by losing 2 townies on D1/N1.... I'll be anti-lynching here too. That said we do have time to calculate and scum would want the day to end fast and some1 die early; did you guys notice how quickly the wagon formed against me; hence I bet that there were mafia in my wagon. I  believe that there are 2 mafia and serial killer in this game. Just a hunch, I think Kevin likes SK flavour.

 

 

 

Do you actually suspect Finster or was it more of a omgus vote on him?

 

My first vote which was for FB was an omgus vote but now I've voted for CoD cuz we were talking about lynching inactives and I believe he's more inactive than me......

 

I second TW's question. Share your thoughts Rafay. What do you think about the setup? How do you envision it to play out? Do you have any advice for the town? For now you're just posting without contributing.

 

I'm always anti-1st day lynch every game. I believe it reveals nothing and decreases the town's chances of winning by losing 2 townies on D1/N1.... I'll be anti-lynching here too. That said we do have time to calculate and scum would want the day to end fast and some1 die early; did you guys notice how quickly the wagon formed against me; hence I bet that there were mafia in my wagon. I  believe that there are 2 mafia and serial killer in this game. Just a hunch, I think Kevin likes SK flavour.

Kevin confirmed in the OP that there is no SK in this game:

 

 

C9++ include some variation of the following roles:

Vanilla

Townie, Town Cop, Town 1-Shot Cop, Town Doctor, Town 1-Shot Doctor, Town Vigilante, Town 1-Shot Vigilante, Town Innocent Child, Town Mason, Town Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Godfather, Serial Killer

 

The setup was randomly generated as specified for 13 players.  A serial killer and 2 vanilla townies were deleted.

Without one present do you think that it is more likely that there are three scums instead of two?

 

 

@COD/Kazio: What are your thoughts? Do you have any reads on anyone at this point?

 

 

Without one present do you think that it is more likely that there are three scums instead of two?

 

Then there are 3 scums definitely. We should play with a mindset and strategy of 3 scums. 

I'm not sure about 3 scum unless Town gots more power roles. 

 

Once I saw the problem emerging, I said something, but now its something that people have to get more of a habit with. Lurkers are a plauge on the town and won't help the town even though they win with town. Mafia isn't going to go after somebody who isn't a threat to them, so even if they town, they are not helping to win the game. Many players post more frequently then others game after game. some when they do post post 1 to two words hiding under the radar. There are ways to get this sort of behavoir sorted, as players we can only do so much. I came from a board that awarded good activity. We only ussally hade 3 days to decide who to lynch if anybody. But if activity was really good, say 40 posts day 1, 30, day 2 or something we get more time. However posts that are only a few words wouldn't count towards getting that extra time. If discussion wasn't happening, inactives would be purged as they didn't help towards the end goal. just some thoughts out there.

 

right now I got Isoc and TW on my short scum list, but that could change very easily since its day 1 still. 

I'm still under the impression that Kevin got rid of two VT and a SK before the game started. That there can only be one VT or the possibility of there only be one. Am I reading this wrong?

 

Does getting rid of two just mean that if 3 more people joined. Two of them would have been VTs.

I'm still under the impression that Kevin got rid of two VT and a SK before the game started. That there can only be one VT or the possibility of there only be one. Am I reading this wrong?

 

Does getting rid of two just mean that if 3 more people joined. Two of them would have been VTs.

I'm assuming he just took the SK out of the possibility of spawning and 2 VT from whatever setup was chosen. 

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): Kaziocore, The Warrior,
Kaziocore (2): Chaplain of Death, Lyner,
Chaplain of Death (2): SeaBeeGipson, Rafay,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Finster Baby (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Robert2424, Ali bin Turban, Finster Baby,

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.
 
Note: The setup was "spawned" as if there were 13 players which meant 7 random numbers generating the power/scum roles and then adding vanilla townies up to 13 players.  One of the roles generated was a serial killer and I deleted that.  I then deleted 2 vanilla townies to bring the total to 10 roles.  The 10 players were then randomly assigned to the 10 remaining roles.

I'm still under the impression that Kevin got rid of two VT and a SK before the game started. That there can only be one VT or the possibility of there only be one. Am I reading this wrong?

 

Does getting rid of two just mean that if 3 more people joined. Two of them would have been VTs.

KevinH rolls the dices 7 times. For the sake of explanation let's assume he got T,C,T,V,V,T,T results. Four Ts means there are 3 scums (2 goons + roleblocker). That leaves us with 7 town. C means there's 1-shot Cop and two Vs means there's a Vigilante, rest of the town, which is 5 people, will become VT.

 

 

 

If there are 3 scum (and as I've shown earlier it's almost 2 times more probable) we're allowed to make just one mistake. So in that scenario misslynch today would mean LYLO tomorrow (technically we're in a better position if there are 2 scums...but that means there were 7 T's which equals to no PRs)

 

I need to correct myself here because I was to pessimistic. 2 scums mean either no PR's or 1-2 PR's

I think we may be safe to assume 3 scum just to cover our bases. Which means bonus if there's only 2.

Rafay is the only one that comes to mind.

To me, his posts are just there to increase his post count.

The fact that in page 3, he didn't know that there's no SK means he's not really reading everything.

I'm still leaving my vote on Rafay

 

I still support lynching on D1 as being anti-lynch on D1 is either too safe or too lazy I think.

 

I remember how Rafay didn't vote for anyone last game on D1.

The inactive town player on D1 got lynched

then said he wouldn't mind lynching an inactive player on D2

then he also got lynched, then Rafay proceeds to suspect me 

for being on a wagon on a town player LUL.

 

I was hoping this won't happen again.

 

---

 

 

I think we may be safe to assume 3 scum just to cover our bases. Which means bonus if there's only 2.

 

Yes having two scum is very unlikely though I forgot to calculate probabilities from college so I can't do the math lol

 

---

 

Kevin should probably message CoD to come back to post.

I wasn't messaged too when I keep forgetting to post after work D:

I'm still on the no lynch for day one for now. however, I do think it should have enough conversation. 

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): Kaziocore, The Warrior,

Kaziocore (2): Chaplain of Death, Lyner,

Chaplain of Death (2): SeaBeeGipson, Rafay,

Lyner (1): iSocialism,

Finster Baby (0):

Ali bin Turban (0):

iSocialism

Robert2424

SeaBeeGipson

The Warrior

 

No lynch:

 

Not voting: Robert2424, Ali bin Turban, Finster Baby,

 

With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.

I do believe with how fast Rafay was almost lynched. We can somewhat believe he is town this round. Not confirmed but doubt he would pull scum.

 

CoD has been completely inactive unless I missed him.posting. has he been pinged?

He hasn't posted since the 30th in this thread. Safe to say he isn't active, or at least not actively participating/lurking. 

 

Vote COD

 

You alive over there? 

Welp.

Only Robert and SeaBeeGipson posted since my post.

Maybe we could replace CoD if he's not responding

Or we can do this:

 

VOTE:  Chaplain of Death

 

Inactives FTL

Sorry about my absence this weekend fellas. Busy weekend with the family and honestly I forgot to check into this thread when I did check on CN things. It doesn't look like much really happened this weekend anyway.

 

Has CoD been pinged, Kevin?

 

@COD: What are your thoughts at this point?

 

 

right now I got Isoc and TW on my short scum list, but that could change very easily since its day 1 still. 

And why is that exactly? Because my vote for Rafay put him at L-1?

Vote Count:

Chaplain of Death (4): SeaBeeGipson, Rafay, Robert2424, Finster Baby,
Rafay (2): Kaziocore, The Warrior,
Kaziocore (2): Chaplain of Death, Lyner,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Finster Baby (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Ali bin Turban,

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.
 
Chaplain of Death has just been pinged.