894 replies to this topic

[Theophilos]

Maybe he's just saying wait, I'm not a cop, but I am a townie ... so In a way reaffirming his statement on being a townie.
He now has three votes against him, can't lose much with a statement like that. Still voting for someone just because he's got a favoured strategy.

On the other hand like Martino said it could be some kind of a reverse psy stuff (a strange one, but ...), add Narsis opinion that there most likely is a cop ... Still I favour the first option more.

VOTE COUNT
sojourner (3): Kaziocore, Electric Mango, Falzis
KevinH (3): Aquinas, Sir Jesus, sojourner
Theophilos (1): Martino
No Lynch (1): KevinH

Not Voting (5): Narsis, junkahoolik, Theophilos, Calderone, Nerau

With 13 alive, 7 is needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 02 June 2009 - 10:30 AM.

[Falzis]

What first option?

[Theophilos]

That he is simply a townie and likes this particular strategy - no lynch.

[Falzis]

Using Occam's razor, that is the simplest explanation. But I would still love to hear Kevin's explanation as to why he said that.

[Theophilos]

Agreed.

[Electric Mango]

I have my own opinions on why he said that but I would rather wait until I hear from KevinH first. It is a good question though. Why would he say that he's not the cop?

[KevinH]

I am not the cop.

Everybody will role claim at this point that they are a townie so that doesn't even need to be said.

The point I was trying to make is that by picking someone to lynch with no information, the town is taking a chance on lynching the cop. Since I am not the cop, that is a "plus". Don't read too much into it.

Do I want to be lynched? No. That is a 100% chance that the town will lose a townie.

Lynch somebody else and you will have a 75% chance that the town will lose a townie and an 8% chance of losing the cop.

Do you feel lucky? ...

[Electric Mango]

..well do ya, punk?


I couldn't resist finishing your sentence for you.

I have a strange feeling about your role Kevin. I felt the same way before and you turned out to be a sk, or at least something similiar. Call it intuition. For now I'll just give you a curiously raised eyebrow.

[KevinH]

and besides, even if there is a cop, if he doesn't guess the first day, what will we do the second day??

On the second day, we know that the cop knows either the guilt or innocence of one of us. If we start to lynch a known innocent, the cop can sway us away. If the cop knows somebody is guilty, he can sway us in the direction of that lynch. That's the beauty of this game -- seeing subtle things in people's posts.

At this point, no scum is going to give themselves away and no townie knows anything that will lead to anything much more than a random lynch.

A lynch is not in the town's best interest at this point. I've made my case and will let the discussion continue. I will be the "loyal opposition" and when a townie gets lynched feel vindicated.

[Theophilos]

Hmm ... I'm guessing (obviously) but I might have an idea about the role your playing in this game ... hope I'm not wrong

[Falzis]

Alright since it's looking obvious I might as well state it, KevinH seems so sure that there is a cop... hmm

[junkahoolik]

On the second day, we know that the cop knows either the guilt or innocence of one of us. If we start to lynch a known innocent, the cop can sway us away. If the cop knows somebody is guilty, he can sway us in the direction of that lynch. That's the beauty of this game -- seeing subtle things in people's posts.

At this point, no scum is going to give themselves away and no townie knows anything that will lead to anything much more than a random lynch.

A lynch is not in the town's best interest at this point. I've made my case and will let the discussion continue. I will be the "loyal opposition" and when a townie gets lynched feel vindicated.

the problem with that strategy is that we shouldn't lynch anybody for at least until the cop gets info on a bad guy. but if we don't lynch and the cop gets hit at random in the night by the scum, the strategy will fail utterly. either way it's a gamble. it's just that i consider the first option (the one with lynching every day someone) as opposed to your plan of action, on the safer side. besides, i'm thinking a lynch should give valuable information to the cop too, not just us simple folks.

and to those wanting to lynch kevin, lynching him just because we don't agree with his strategy is bad. we should focus on trying to find if he is scum, not lynch people we have no reason to believe are scum but have a strategy we don't like. that would mean almost wasting a lynch. granted, we could get lucky, but if we don't get lucky, then we won't find out as much stuff as we would if we lynched someone we had reasons to suspect are scum. just my 2 cents.

[Falzis]

You know, I didn't think of that. It makes much more sense to really not go for a No-Lynch strategy based on what you said that Day 1 Lynches "should give valuable information to the cop too". It would give them a lead!

I hope KevinH abandons his No-Lynch strategy. I think it would be more helpful to us knowing who he is voting for.

[Narsis]

i have my eye on Kevin...

Maybe he's just saying wait, I'm not a cop, but I am a townie ... so In a way reaffirming his statement on being a townie.
He now has three votes against him, can't lose much with a statement like that. Still voting for someone just because he's got a favoured strategy.

On the other hand like Martino said it could be some kind of a reverse psy stuff (a strange one, but ...), add Narsis opinion that there most likely is a cop ... Still I favour the first option more.

actually my opinion is that i have no idea if there is a cop or not so i'm not even gonna say if i think there is one or not. at this point in the game trying to guess at the roles is just mod WIFOM which will lead the town no where. if there is a cop then he/she should be able to add his/her voice to tomorrow's lynch. even so i don't think it's worth hinging the entire game on there being a cop when we could easily be wrong.


anyway...i've argued why Kevin's strategy is so wrong before and he's argued why it works etc. so it's not much use arguing again. it leads away from the important stuff imo, which is scum hunting.

[Theophilos]

^I agree^ ... also we stated higher up in the thread that whether or not a cop is part of this game isn't important at this stage but prodding. Consider yourselves prodded

[Falzis]

Funny but I was heading in the Kevin direction myself..if he doesn't know what to say then saying nothing is a good choice. I suppose it is just a guess but Kevin seems like the scum. I am never one for doing nothing.

"Things might come to those who wait but only things left by those who hustle."Abe Lincoln

I vote Kevin H

Well, I still have my eyes on sojourner. Always bandwagon votes and not much rational basis.

[KevinH]

I don't know that there is a cop. More than likely there is a pro-town power role. We don't want to kill them.

Even if there's not a cop, I will play like there is one. I'm assuming the cop knows one innocent person and will guide us away from that lynch. That reduces our chances of lynching a townie. The cop can drop a hint about who he investigated in case we lynch him or he gets night-killed.

It is in the scums best interest to lynch someone. A FoS on all that are pushing hard for that!

[Narsis]

then you just FoS'd everyone in the game besides yourself which is pointless.

[Falzis]

Ugh no it's not always in the scum's best interest to lynch someone. Lynching is actually in the best interest of the town since scum win chances increase with each no lynch (read over at mafia wiki lol ) and that it is only through lynches that townies get to have a chance to kill a scum (no NK power).

You know, at worst, KevinH is scum who doesn't want to have voting patterns on himself, who is bluffing that we would not be killing a cop by killing him (reverse psych), and who is throwing around possible misleading WIFOMs.

At best, he has a power role, he's a cop, or he knows who the cop is (because of all the breadcrumbs he's been laying).

At simplest, he's a townie who is sticking to his strategy and defending himself from a possible lynch.

But either ways, I'm more likely to vote for you now since with random chances of you being scum, townie, or something else, your No Lynch vote doesn't give me anything to go by the next day regarding you.

FOS: KevinH

[junkahoolik]

meeh... you guys are confusing me even more... :|