1469 replies to this topic

[Electric Mango]

List or No List
Lynch or No Lynch

These are the questions before us.

List Benefits = Mafia do not get to choose who goes where. Maybe all 3 get in the same compartment. Even if just 2 bad guys end up together that will decrease their odds of finding special items. If they each go to a seperate room then they increase their odds. Also the list ensures everyone is distributed equally.

No List Benefits = We get additional info on who went where and possible reasons why.



Lynch benefits - We may kill a bad guy and we get voting patterns

No lynch benefits - We will probably be a townie ahead to start the game and will have a short list of suspects once the mafia do a night kill.


I personally think that we should go with a list and wait to use our lynch until Day 2. We'll have a much shorter list of suspects after the mafia kill someone on night 1. If we kill tonight we'll most likely kill a townie.

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (11): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Kaziocore, Aquinas, Martino, CanucksDynasty, angel of doom

Edited by molestargazer, 30 October 2009 - 03:19 PM.

[KevinH]

what do you mean until you know more? i have already pointed out several times why it wouldn't be best.

first: why are you sticking by the list strategy? time and time again it's been pointed out how it is not beneficial for the town.

"Until I know more" means until I am convinced. I haven't seen a convincing argument ... and certainly not time and time again.

Where is it?

ok so first: i disagree with the room assignments. i'll give more details in that long post i promised(coming up in a minute or two). however if we do room assignments the stock exchange or temperature ideas sound good.

tbh i had a huge reply written up and after it got deleted realized what you were actually saying. and tbh...i'm not opposed to the idea.
the list idea imo is selling us short. we are giving up valuable information. both my idea and the hybrid more or less give us the info.

but what info is it?

it is very comparable to lynches. no one here, except for Kevin and maybe crazy, would say that no-lynching is a good idea. why? one reason is because lynching gives us good information. so why would we turn down the chance at getting information here? to save a townie from making a mistake that could get him killed? yet lynching for info would guarantee that townies death. could vs. guarantee...i'll take the could.

not to mention that can fairly easily limit the chance of a mistake while maintaining the ability to gather information. that's why VCs exist, so why not do something similar for moving? an MC of sorts.

i agree that i should not get a free pass. no one should.

anyway...

the full quote that you quoted is listed above. although i may have agreed with the idea of spreading out, 1) that was before i went over it thoroughly and 2) at that point in time, and still even now, i'm much more concerned with the information. regardless of how we go about it, the method we choose should be the one that gets us the most information, anything else is cutting us short.

also i dont believe you should be credited either with the original 4 room idea. Firkked, as seen in the quote below, was the first to actually mention the use of four rooms. maybe you thought of it before, maybe not, but Firkked posted it first so he should get the credit, or at least most of it.

quoted the post above. essentially it all comes down to information. the mafia want to keep as much information to themselves as possible. by following a list, they can keep the information of why they wanted to be in a particular room to themselves, even though they may not have gotten a room as good as they wanted. by forcing them to choose a room, we are forcing them to provide us with information about why they choose that room, whether directly or indirectly stated by them.

also, i have yet to hear what the benefits of having a list is over choosing...save a townie from making a mistake? i already said we could easily keep a move count and that would do the job just fine. so what other benefits are there? from what i see nothing.

we still havent decided if using a list is teh best method yet!

but they would say "it was the suggested list so why not". and like i've said i doubt that anyone wouldn't follow a list.

Nothing overly convincing to me.

Electric Mango makes a great post:

List or No List
Lynch or No Lynch

These are the questions before us.

List Benefits = Mafia do not get to choose who goes where. Maybe all 3 get in the same compartment. Even if just 2 bad guys end up together that will decrease their odds of finding special items. If they each go to a seperate room then they increase their odds. Also the list ensures everyone is distributed equally.

No List Benefits = We get additional info on who went where and possible reasons why.



Lynch benefits - We may kill a bad guy and we get voting patterns

No lynch benefits - We will probably be a townie ahead to start the game and will have a short list of suspects once the mafia do a night kill.


I personally think that we should go with a list and wait to use our lynch until Day 2. We'll have a much shorter list of suspects after the mafia kill someone on night 1. If we kill tonight we'll most likely kill a townie.

I support this position.

[Narsis]

List or No List
Lynch or No Lynch

These are the questions before us.

List Benefits = Mafia do not get to choose who goes where. Maybe all 3 get in the same compartment. Even if just 2 bad guys end up together that will decrease their odds of finding special items. If they each go to a seperate room then they increase their odds. Also the list ensures everyone is distributed equally.

No List Benefits = We get additional info on who went where and possible reasons why.



Lynch benefits - We may kill a bad guy and we get voting patterns

No lynch benefits - We will probably be a townie ahead to start the game and will have a short list of suspects once the mafia do a night kill.


I personally think that we should go with a list and wait to use our lynch until Day 2. We'll have a much shorter list of suspects after the mafia kill someone on night 1. If we kill tonight we'll most likely kill a townie.

FOS: EM

first: we have no idea how powerful the special items are.

second: what is up with the no lynch? you would never agree with a no lynch on the basis that it saves a townie but costs info in a normal game. why here? sure we get additional information at night...but we get that regardless of the lynch or no lynch.


the game of mafia is about information. mafia want to hide as much as possible.


List: allows mafia to hide behind list as reason for being a room where someone dies.

No List: gives us insight, also known as information, about a role based on where they choose and who they choose to be with


No Lynch: we save a townies life.

Lynch: likely kill a townie, but gain information from the lynch and limit the max suspects to 2.


benefits we get regardless: limiting suspect list greatly.



right now we need information. that's the reason behind day 1 lynches, so why change our day 1 play in this game? maybe a list would be more beneficial once we learn what some of the section powers are. it also could be useful once we have a good idea of who is town and who isnt and can force non-townies together. but right now one day 1 we need information more then anything. we dont know enough to make proper use of a list; supporters of a list are suggesting a random list which can only help mafia by allowing them to hide.

[Narsis]

"Until I know more" means until I am convinced. I haven't seen a convincing argument ... and certainly not time and time again.

Where is it?
Nothing overly convincing to me.

Electric Mango makes a great post:



I support this position.

nothing overly convincing what?

what will convince you? going through the day and night and finding that making a list didnt help very much if at all? by then it's too late.

if gaining additional information, something the town needs very much of on day 1, isn't enough of a reason then i don't know what is...

[Electric Mango]

We can't look at this game as we do the regular ones. I am always for lynching in regular games because voting patterns are all we have to go off. In this game, it's much different. After the 1st night we will have a very short list of suspects to go off of. This will dramatically increase our odds of lynching bad guys.

Because this game is much different we must alter our playing styles to give the town the best chance of winning.

Also I'm not stupid, I seen where Kevin and Sir Jesus had been FOS'd because of their no lynch stance but I still chose to support it because I think it is our best option for a win. If the town plays it safe and works the odds, we're almost assured of a victory.

[Narsis]

Lynch vs no lynch:

i believe CD summed it up best...

by lynching, even if we kill a townie we are limiting it to a max of 2 possible suspects.

by no lynching, the max would be 3.

so it is beneficial even if we do kill a townie...

[Kaziocore]

Lynch vs no lynch:

i believe CD summed it up best...

by lynching, even if we kill a townie we are limiting it to a max of 2 possible suspects.

by no lynching, the max would be 3.

so it is beneficial even if we do kill a townie...

Yeah I agree that a lynch is best for the townies.
I prefer choosing the person that lurks the most or hasn't contributed much. Most likely we will lynch a townie so why not the lurkers?

[Firkked]

The detailed argument in favor of a D1 lynch was posted as follows (Bold + underline tags are mine, for emphasis on the key for my point below) -

No Lynch Strategy Worst Case Scenario (providing nk on N1)

D1 = no lynch
N1 = dead townie on N1 (max 3 suspects)
D2 = mis-lynch dead townie (from N1 suspects)
N2 = dead townie (may be a totally new set of suspects...max 2)
D3 = mis-lynch dead townie
N3 = dead townie (probably N1 suspect)
D4 = yay lynch mafia (N1 suspect)
N4 = dead townie
D5 = ?

So far = 6 dead townies and 1 mafia by start of D5


Lynch Strategy Worst Case Scenario (providing nk on N1)

D1 = mis-lynch dead townie
N1 = dead townie on N1 (max 2 suspects)
D2 = mis-lynch dead townie (from N1 suspects)
N2 = dead townie (probably N1 suspect
D3 = yay lynch mafia
N3 = dead townie (new set of max 2 suspects)
D4 = ?

So far = 5 dead townies and 1 mafia by start of D4


That's why I think lynching is our best option.
Right now...I'm starting to be more suspicous of those that have voted for a no-lynch
(KevinH and SJ)

But the counter argument does bring up a valid point regarding the list debate -

List or No List
Lynch or No Lynch

These are the questions before us.

List Benefits = Mafia do not get to choose who goes where. Maybe all 3 get in the same compartment. Even if just 2 bad guys end up together that will decrease their odds of finding special items. If they each go to a seperate room then they increase their odds. Also the list ensures everyone is distributed equally.

No List Benefits = We get additional info on who went where and possible reasons why.



Lynch benefits - We may kill a bad guy and we get voting patterns

No lynch benefits - We will probably be a townie ahead to start the game and will have a short list of suspects once the mafia do a night kill.


I personally think that we should go with a list and wait to use our lynch until Day 2. We'll have a much shorter list of suspects after the mafia kill someone on night 1. If we kill tonight we'll most likely kill a townie.

Which is why I stated

3-2. If any player does not submit an action, they will be distributed randomly and refused any potential benefits for that night.

I think that's the MOD's way of saying if you don't decide I'm gonna shove you somewhere and you get nada, nothing, goodnight to you sir!

With that said I go back to my second statement on lists: Make one and have people explain themselves when they don't follow it. Heck, have 'em explain why they stuck to the list as well...

I'll make my decision if and when a list is out and night is upon us.

Finally, a no lynch position isn't a reason to vote for someone on it's own. It can be a reason for suspicion, just as posting or even lurking in the post without posting...

For the no-lynch debate I think that with a D1 lynch, even if we end up with a dead townie, the discussions over how to use the map and lists for room assignments, combined with the "isolation room" strategy, will help the town to pinpoint mafia quicker than a normal game.

Without a D1 lynch we're a day behind in voting record benefits and will lose the extra scum-hunting help of the "isolation room" strategy on D2. We have a chance to hit the scum hard early in the game and I don't want to waste that opportunity!

Regardless of whether there's a list or not, having people give a reason for their night move is a pro-town strategy. Even with a list there is no guarantee that everyone will follow it until the moves are posted and you only get ONE move, so the order that people post the move is just as important as where someone moves to (this was pointed out by Narsis on page 1).

So for the list debate I say use the list that was posted earlier, follow it or don't follow it but when you post your move list a reason for your move (and a "it was on the list" reason is the same as no reason)

Aquinas has been quiet.

AoD - 2 replies and no comment on my FoS? just a tad suspicious IMHO

[Martino]

first: why are you sticking by the list strategy? time and time again it's been pointed out how it is not beneficial for the town.

While I don't understand why he posted a list, it has certainly not been proven time and time again that a list is not beneficial for the town.

First of all, the information we will obtain from this moving pattern is very limited at best. We allow people to be in only 4 different rooms and we have fixed the number of people that should be in each room to 3(unless we go for a no lynch strategy then there are 4 in one room. But even in this game I don't think that a no-lynch is beneficial to us). None of the rooms are adjacent and we don't have any information about the room items/bonuses yet. So basically we are offering people 4 identical alternatives. What information are you going to extract from that? What incentive would the mafia have to not just use a random number generator and chose their room in that fashion?

You say you want people to explain why they chose a certain room, but chosing a room is completely different from voting for someone. If you vote for someone you either believe they are scum, or you are scum and have other motives to vote for them. Because there is a difference between pro town players and scum there, we have a chance to pick up on who is scum. For the room selection, I don't see any difference between the scum and pro town players. I expect that neither will have any special reason to pick a room. Certainly not on day1.

[KevinH]

the information we will obtain from this moving pattern is very limited at best.

Really. I am totally uncaring as to which specific room I choose. My reason will be "because I had to go somewhere."

The ceiling in the plane isn't high enough for a lynching, anyway.

[Narsis]

While I don't understand why he posted a list, it has certainly not been proven time and time again that a list is not beneficial for the town.

First of all, the information we will obtain from this moving pattern is very limited at best. We allow people to be in only 4 different rooms and we have fixed the number of people that should be in each room to 3(unless we go for a no lynch strategy then there are 4 in one room. But even in this game I don't think that a no-lynch is beneficial to us). None of the rooms are adjacent and we don't have any information about the room items/bonuses yet. So basically we are offering people 4 identical alternatives. What information are you going to extract from that? What incentive would the mafia have to not just use a random number generator and chose their room in that fashion?

You say you want people to explain why they chose a certain room, but chosing a room is completely different from voting for someone. If you vote for someone you either believe they are scum, or you are scum and have other motives to vote for them. Because there is a difference between pro town players and scum there, we have a chance to pick up on who is scum. For the room selection, I don't see any difference between the scum and pro town players. I expect that neither will have any special reason to pick a room. Certainly not on day1.

but scum do have a reason to pick a room. they either want someone there dead, or want to avoid the room where someone is going to get killed. if they haven't decided who they want to kill yet then they would also want to spread out so as to be capable of targetting everyone, or most everyone.

[Falzis]

Alright I've had enough time to read and process the discussion. Good thing EM summed it up best. My stance from what I've read and thought personally as well is

1. Lynching is still good because of a VC and 3-person spread in 4-rooms = 50/50 chance of hunting mafia.

2. I am leaning more towards a List than free choice based mainly on two reasons:

2.a I don't think Narsis' idea of more information being gleaned from where people will want to move flies because people can just make up reasons conveniently. BUT I do think it could fly if hypothetically, a person moved to a certain room to kill a certain person because he wanted to kill that person because he was a threat or something, we would see that play out if people were given a free choice,

2.b (Ugh I forgot, wait lemme think about the second reason again. I got distracted from typing by my sister)

[Narsis]

Alright I've had enough time to read and process the discussion. Good thing EM summed it up best. My stance from what I've read and thought personally as well is

1. Lynching is still good because of a VC and 3-person spread in 4-rooms = 50/50 chance of hunting mafia.

2. I am leaning more towards a List than free choice based mainly on two reasons:

2.a I don't think Narsis' idea of more information being gleaned from where people will want to move flies because people can just make up reasons conveniently. BUT I do think it could fly if hypothetically, a person moved to a certain room to kill a certain person because he wanted to kill that person because he was a threat or something, we would see that play out if people were given a free choice,

2.b (Ugh I forgot, wait lemme think about the second reason again. I got distracted from typing by my sister)

however, what benefits are we going to get for night 1 by "controlling" where mafia go? at this point we dont know, or even have enough information to really suspect, who is mafia. sure we might get lucky and force 2 together, but what good does that do if even one other is left alone? especially if that one does the killing.

i would support a list if we had enough information to make a reasonable guess(cause that's all it would really be ) as to who the mafia are as we would be able to "force" them away from suspected townies. but at this point we dont know enough to do that.

[angel of doom]

sorry Firkked but i dont need to put every FoS under the microscope, and as for the list or no list thing, i really dont care which we choose, with the list we have the potential to group scum together in the same room and with out the lynch we can see choosing patterns but also give the scum a chance to split up.

[angel of doom]

EBWOP with out the list, not lynch

[Firkked]

sorry Firkked but i dont need to put every FoS under the microscope, and as for the list or no list thing, i really dont care which we choose, with the list we have the potential to group scum together in the same room and with out the lynch we can see choosing patterns but also give the scum a chance to split up.

Fair enough.

[Aquinas]

As far as a couple FOSs in my direction, I don't lend much credence. I threw out a strategy to get people talking and ignite discussion. As you can see from the shortness and qucikness of the post it wasn't considered much beyond surface examination of the strategy. I am glad we've come up with better plans. If anyone is convinced I'm scum from that behavior there isn't much I can do. As to being quiet, I'm sorry. I've been keeping busy but, I get on when I can.

Anyway, I think the essence of my last post was that I wanted to do a choice strategy over room decisions. I think it lends more information to the town. Sure, with a list we might thwart a scum or maybe two but, we're not as close to catching them as we could have been if we would have had their motivations. Furthermore, if we end up with three people in a room we're looking at two targets. If only one of those is scum it'd be way easier to identify the scum from those two if we had ascertained intentions prior to the night kill. The list in my previous post served a purpose to organize things. If we choose rooms in a predetermined order we still retain some of the scum damage control that a total list strategy offers. I think randomness favors the scum over the town. If we can control the order in which we pick we limit scum viability for room decisions and influence over how the randomness is carried out. We could go down the list today and up the list tomorrow. That would give us even a greater advantage because we could still get some overlap which would get is closer to identifying scum and some polarity where if we see less actions than we think were possible we can target those rooms.

As far as lynching today goes, I am for it. We're looking for information and we're not going to get it from not acting. As a townie I am fully aware that all the power in my role comes from using my lynch vote. We need to get those scum. If we're not acting we're limiting our chances to lynch the scum. Its our only innate offensive ability. We might lynch a townie on day one, sure but, that gives us a better chance to get a scum on day two. Remember, Electric Mango's cases were worst case scenarios. We could do a lot better at getting scum from vote counts and room positions than day four. I think that is actually pretty likely. If we think about how the scum will be night killing they are going to be very aware of what rooms they are killing in. We can use the information from why a room with a night kill was used in was picked by the people using that room in conjunction with voting patterns (especially by day three and beyond) we're looking at a lot of information to find scum and rule out the scuminess of townies.

I'd say these two choices work together for getting townies information than the conjunction of any other two strategies. I am again entering my list/choice hybrid here. I'd like to get some feedback on it as well. If we can control the choice but, also demand reasoning on votes I think the town is in a good position.

Again, I'll being staying as active as I can. I read everything as it happens so if we encounter some dire situation I'll do my best to reroute my schedule.

[junkahoolik]

after reading the last 2 pages, i just thought of something. i don't really know how would it be beneficial for people to choose their own rooms. it just means that if the mafia suspect someone of being a power role they can have access to him unhindered. also, i'm worried that letting people roam free around the plane could besides giving us the info of who goes where at what time also give the mafia information about possible power roles.

[Falzis]

however, what benefits are we going to get for night 1 by "controlling" where mafia go? at this point we dont know, or even have enough information to really suspect, who is mafia. sure we might get lucky and force 2 together, but what good does that do if even one other is left alone? especially if that one does the killing.

i would support a list if we had enough information to make a reasonable guess(cause that's all it would really be ) as to who the mafia are as we would be able to "force" them away from suspected townies. but at this point we dont know enough to do that.

fair enough. others are making equally valid points but then yeah well i think the hybrid suggestion works.

[Narsis]

after reading the last 2 pages, i just thought of something. i don't really know how would it be beneficial for people to choose their own rooms. it just means that if the mafia suspect someone of being a power role they can have access to him unhindered. also, i'm worried that letting people roam free around the plane could besides giving us the info of who goes where at what time also give the mafia information about possible power roles.

indeed. but at this point we dont know what power roles there are so regardless we still cant move mafia away from them.