1469 replies to this topic

[Narsis]

dang!

i jsut made a lengthy post and my browser deletes it. i'll rewrite it later when i get home since my laptop is almost dead...

Notepad!
Vote count to come tomorrow. I'm sure you can make do 'til then. -Mole

Edited by molestargazer, 29 October 2009 - 12:13 AM.

[Electric Mango]

3-2. If any player does not submit an action, they will be distributed randomly and refused any potential benefits for that night.

MOD: If a person goes AWOL or does not submit their location for whatever reason, will the rest of us be given the random location assigned to them before the night actions begin?
Yes.


Also, if we wanted to go completely random on room assignments, there's plenty of ways we could do it so we all know it's legit.

An example would be that each person is paired with a companies stock that is publicly traded. We take a screen shot of today's prices and one again in let's say 5 days. The 3 with the highest gains are in one group, the next 3 in the next and so on.

Another way would be to assign each of us to a city and use that city's daily high temperature as a benchmark and the top 3 cities w/ the biggest increase in temp are in the first area, etc.

No matter how we assign rooms, I think it's important that we do assign rooms or scum could manipulate it as they are the only group who know who each other are.

As for the lynch/no lynch, I'm still debating.

Edited by molestargazer, 29 October 2009 - 11:21 AM.

[Firkked]

^ Interesting way to generate random numbers, but I do like the stock gainers with the following riders

-NYSE only

-Ties broken by player posting first gets assigned first

- Player chooses stock and provides a screenshot with timestamp of price.


Secondly, I unvoted Junkahoolik as I feel he has explained himself sufficiently at this point for my satisfaction to warrant the unvote and not as a suggestion I am in favor of a "No Lynch" strategy. CD's points are more than valid for me to stay away from the "No Lynch" strategy.

Finally, thanks EM for clarifying your FOSs

[Narsis]

ok so first: i disagree with the room assignments. i'll give more details in that long post i promised(coming up in a minute or two). however if we do room assignments the stock exchange or temperature ideas sound good.

[Electric Mango]

You are getting the facts wrong. Remember these posts?


QUOTE (KevinH @ Oct 26 2009, 10:00 PM) *

* After someone is killed, we can put suspicion on everyone in the same and adjacent compartments.


QUOTE (KevinH @ Oct 27 2009, 08:01 AM) *
I propose we leave 2 locations empty and have 5 locations with 2 players and 1 location with 3 players.

1st Quote - Well that isn't really any groundbreaking news, you are only stating the obvious so you don't get any townie points from me for this post, sorry.

2nd Quote - You only said that after I FOS'd you and Aquinas for supporting the original theory of spreading out.

[Narsis]

You guys are burning this thread up. Sorry I couldn't keep up. I follow on my phone but I am tied down pretty regularly between class and work so you have to excuse my interjections rather than continuing discussion.

For my two cents anyway, I think we should make a list/picking hybrid. I think it would give us more information.

Remembering:



Therefore when a night action is carried out we can look at who was assigned to specific rooms and why they deviated etc.

Furthermore:


We can see where people choose to move no matter what. All moves that are not night kill related get posted in thread. So we have a master list of where everyone was supposed to be and if we see them resting somewhere else over night we can allege that its doubtful anyone was stupid enough to not copy and paste their room assignment from our master list. If we can look at an individual basis of people deviating from the plan we are in good shape. If we have people choosing their own rooms I would say it gives the mafia a greater advantage to get themselves into the room they would like. If we have people pick we allow for the first four people to pick one of four rooms without replacement. Those choices are pretty arbitrary considering we do not yet know the benefits of each room. Then we have people stacking. Who decides the order we choose to pick our rooms is? If we go by the signup list we can target what the options were of the person who selected the room that the night action took place in. For example if
1. Narsis
2. Junkahoolik
3. Electric Mango
4. KevinH

pick our four rooms in that order and we find that there is a night kill on Electric Mango we know that one of the other two people in his room are scum. However, we also know that the scum that picked that room had a better reason to pick that room than the others. So, we can say that if in the second room drafting round Sir Jesus moved to Electric Mango's room we can conclude that the other rooms may have been filled with other scum known to Sir Jesus. If someone is in the situation multiple nights, (especially if we have a similar map of the island) we can speculate why they may not be targeting a certain individual. If we continue down the sign up list (manifest-for flavor?) each night it might help us to use process of elimination on the scum targets.

Also, I wonder how night kills will be delegated by the scum. I've never been scum so I might have the mechanics wrong here but don't "vanilla scum" come to a consensus about who they are going to kill and that must be sent to the moderator. So if we know that the scum can only carry about an action in a room they are in that night could they kill in any number of rooms that they are located in because they made the decision together? Would they all have to be in the same room? Or, can we assume their is a Godfather role that commits the night kill in a room he is in.

As far as a lynch goes I don't think we need worry about that just yet. I don't think anyone has given a serious enough rational to be voted for. (Obviously Electric Mango disagrees with me - ) I think it would be more appropriate to draft a solid plan, one that we all can agree to and then target dissenters of that plan etc. etc. etc. It seems we might have enough numbers to get away with a no lynch on D1 and then not regret it later in the game when we needed one more turn to lynch a known scum. Thats WIFOM obviously - what if we had lynched an extra townie on D1 etc. etc. etc.

Anyway, that is where I stand for now. I'll be on as often as I have significant information to relate. I doubt i'll be getting into as much back and forth as you all seem to have thus far however.

P.S. If you all find that to be considerably impossible to follow, let me know and i'll get to rephrasing. I changed my mind about something half way through so, I'll fix any inconsistencies I missed if they are seriously detracting from your understanding of my point.

tbh i had a huge reply written up and after it got deleted realized what you were actually saying. and tbh...i'm not opposed to the idea.
the list idea imo is selling us short. we are giving up valuable information. both my idea and the hybrid more or less give us the info.

but what info is it?

it is very comparable to lynches. no one here, except for Kevin and maybe crazy, would say that no-lynching is a good idea. why? one reason is because lynching gives us good information. so why would we turn down the chance at getting information here? to save a townie from making a mistake that could get him killed? yet lynching for info would guarantee that townies death. could vs. guarantee...i'll take the could.

not to mention that can fairly easily limit the chance of a mistake while maintaining the ability to gather information. that's why VCs exist, so why not do something similar for moving? an MC of sorts.

[Electric Mango]

Also we should not give Narsis a free pass as a townie. He originally supported the spreading out theory along w/ KevinH and Aquinas. I must missed it my first time through.

anyway i think that for at least tonight when it comes we should spread out with at least one person in each area. most will have two.

He was wrongly credited w/ being the first to come up with the idea of 4 locations but only posted that after I FOS'd Kevin and Aquinas for the spreading out idea (I should have FOS'd Narsis also) Also he never suggested 4 locations until Kevin suggested 5 locations. So to sit back and give him a free pass seems irresponsible. I find him suspicious myself.

I think that if you read through the first two pages of text you will agree to what I am saying.

If anyone should get a free pass it's me because I was the first to support the theory ( I would have posted it first but I wanted to get the mod ruling 1st )

[Sir Jesus]

I've read through the entire thing, and literally have determined nothing of people's roles.

I believe that we should separate into rooms 2,3,7,8 (I'm sure someone has already has said it).
This would break everyone up into 4 distinct groups, and 2 sub-groups. Thus, we have two sets of info to work with: immediate room, and neighboring room actions.

Also, I think lynching on the first day when the night is so ripe for investigation/information is silly.

Vote: No Lynch

Let's assign these rooms...

[Narsis]

spreading out does have its benefits...but we do need to be careful about it. sure we spread out but scum could more or less fairly easily put people in such a position as to be capable of targetting everyone. so as a method to avoid getting killed by scum...not necessarily going to work. i guess it would narrow the list somewhat though.

what i think would make a bigger effect would be seeing in what order and how/why people choose their location. i mean if we get together and say: you go here and you go here it doesn't really give us a good idea of who's mafia and who's not.

anyway i think that for at least tonight when it comes we should spread out with at least one person in each area. most will have two.

so that aside... i guess the question now is...who is scum?

Also we should not give Narsis a free pass as a townie. He originally supported the spreading out theory along w/ KevinH and Aquinas. I must missed it my first time through.

He was wrongly credited w/ being the first to come up with the idea of 4 locations but only posted that after I FOS'd Kevin and Aquinas for the spreading out idea (I should have FOS'd Narsis also) Also he never suggested 4 locations until Kevin suggested 5 locations. So to sit back and give him a free pass seems irresponsible. I find him suspicious myself.

I think that if you read through the first two pages of text you will agree to what I am saying.

If anyone should get a free pass it's me because I was the first to support the theory ( I would have posted it first but I wanted to get the mod ruling 1st )

i agree that i should not get a free pass. no one should.

anyway...

the full quote that you quoted is listed above. although i may have agreed with the idea of spreading out, 1) that was before i went over it thoroughly and 2) at that point in time, and still even now, i'm much more concerned with the information. regardless of how we go about it, the method we choose should be the one that gets us the most information, anything else is cutting us short.

also i dont believe you should be credited either with the original 4 room idea. Firkked, as seen in the quote below, was the first to actually mention the use of four rooms. maybe you thought of it before, maybe not, but Firkked posted it first so he should get the credit, or at least most of it.

I'm all for finding out the nuts and bolts of how the map works, I'm not sure that having people follow a pre-determined strategy can benefit the town over scum (eg anytime scum know where to find town it makes their job easier).

If a strategy for placement comes into discussion later that is obvious, brilliant and definitely works in favor of the Town I will change my opinion, otherwise I feel a maximum spread strategy may confuse more than help.

This is due to the connectedness of the map. A max spread would still give scum access to 3-5 people depending on the area.

Breaking up into groups where the scum can't move would help, if there were no pro-town power roles (eg agreeing to stay in only areas 1,4,7 and 8 as they are not connected to each other and scum couldn't move to any other group as they would be 2 moves away).

This is why I'm not convinced on a strategy for where people go for the night, other than being in areas 4 or 6 gives you the most areas to move to/from (good for scum, bad for town).

Also, EM - reasons for FOS?

[CanucksDynasty]

I've read through the entire thing, and literally have determined nothing of people's roles.

I believe that we should separate into rooms 2,3,7,8 (I'm sure someone has already has said it).
This would break everyone up into 4 distinct groups, and 2 sub-groups. Thus, we have two sets of info to work with: immediate room, and neighboring room actions.

Also, I think lynching on the first day when the night is so ripe for investigation/information is silly.

Vote: No Lynch

Let's assign these rooms...

I gave the pros and cons of a lynch and no lynch provided mafia performs a nk on N1.
I still think a lynch is the way to go.

[Kaziocore]

I've read through the entire thing, and literally have determined nothing of people's roles.

I believe that we should separate into rooms 2,3,7,8 (I'm sure someone has already has said it).
This would break everyone up into 4 distinct groups, and 2 sub-groups. Thus, we have two sets of info to work with: immediate room, and neighboring room actions.

Also, I think lynching on the first day when the night is so ripe for investigation/information is silly.

Vote: No Lynch

Let's assign these rooms...

Actually SJ, I think we chose 2, 3, 6, 9 then 1, 4, 7, 8 so we can explore all the rooms because if you do 2, 3, 7, 8 you can't explore all the rooms without having people in adjacent compartments

[Firkked]

The following quote lists, what I believe, are the critical early posts about where people should go for the night.

Underline Text= Maximum Spread support
Italic Text= List vs. Free will room assignments
Bold Text= Non-connected Room Support

Aquinas Post #14

I think we should make an effort to spread out as much as possible each night. If we are grouped we would loose information on zones and diverse benefits and possibly suffer extra losses if the scum occupy those zones (implied that if there are benefits their are also very likely penalties). I would say we spread out and discover as much as we can on night one about each zone and then adjust for proper benefits (penalties?) on night two and so forth.

KevinH Post #15

I think we should make an effort to spread out as much as possible each night.

I agree with this strategy.

I can see some possibilities where it might not be optimal:

* Maybe, just maybe, a doc can protect everyone in their compartment.
* A cop has to be in the same compartment as the person they investigate.


Here's the big reason why we should do it:

* After someone is killed, we can put suspicion on everyone in the same and adjacent compartments.

Narsis Post #18

spreading out does have its benefits...but we do need to be careful about it. sure we spread out but scum could more or less fairly easily put people in such a position as to be capable of targetting everyone. so as a method to avoid getting killed by scum...not necessarily going to work. i guess it would narrow the list somewhat though.

what i think would make a bigger effect would be seeing in what order and how/why people choose their location. i mean if we get together and say: you go here and you go here it doesn't really give us a good idea of who's mafia and who's not.

anyway i think that for at least tonight when it comes we should spread out with at least one person in each area. most will have two.

so that aside... i guess the question now is...who is scum?

Electric Mango Post #19

I agree with this strategy.

I can see some possibilities where it might not be optimal:

* Maybe, just maybe, a doc can protect everyone in their compartment.
* A cop has to be in the same compartment as the person they investigate.


Here's the big reason why we should do it:

* After someone is killed, we can put suspicion on everyone in the same and adjacent compartments.

MOD: When the next morning comes, will the passengers know who spent the night with them in their compartment?

No. But all movements at the end of the day are posted in-thread.
Movements for night actions are unknown to anyone but the movers.

FOS: Aquinas and KevinH


Electric Mango Post #20

EBWP: I submitted it accidentally, will explain more when I hear about the mod ruling.

Also to make it official,

MOD: Please answer my question above.

KevinH Post #22

Since there are 13 of us and 8 locations to which we can each spend the night, maximum spread would give 5 locations with 2 players and 3 locations with 1 player. If the cop or doc is stuck in a location with only 1 player, they won't be effective. I propose we leave 2 locations empty and have 5 locations with 2 players and 1 location with 3 players.


Angel of Doom Post #23


that sounds good


Narsis Post #24

hmm...so like section 4 with 3, section 1 with 2 and section 9 with 2? or something similar.

come to think of it that would definitely narrow down suspect lists and the like. i'm assuming of course that section 4 and 1 aren't connected as well.

MOD: just to confirm but are section 4 and 1 connected?(and likewise 6 and 9)

No.

also i would like to hear why EM FOS'd Aquinas and Kevin...


Firkked Post #25

I'm all for finding out the nuts and bolts of how the map works, I'm not sure that having people follow a pre-determined strategy can benefit the town over scum (eg anytime scum know where to find town it makes their job easier).
If a strategy for placement comes into discussion later that is obvious, brilliant and definitely works in favor of the Town I will change my opinion, otherwise I feel a maximum spread strategy may confuse more than help.

This is due to the connectedness of the map. A max spread would still give scum access to 3-5 people depending on the area.

Breaking up into groups where the scum can't move would help, if there were no pro-town power roles (eg agreeing to stay in only areas 1,4,7 and 8 as they are not connected to each other and scum couldn't move to any other group as they would be 2 moves away).

This is why I'm not convinced on a strategy for where people go for the night, other than being in areas 4 or 6 gives you the most areas to move to/from (good for scum, bad for town).

Also, EM - reasons for FOS?

Narsis Post #27

doing some quick math:

if we want to limit the ability of power roles as much as possible(not really a bad idea for the first night) then splitting into areas: 2, 3, 7, and 8 in groups of 3 and one of 4 will mean that whoever dies must have been targetted by someone in their section, greatly narrowing down the suspect list. although we do limit what pro-town power roles can do consider:

1) they likely won't have someone in particular they want to target(or won't mind picking someone else)

2) there will be little to no additional limitations of who they can target nor would there be any less information available to them.


so at least for night one(and probably night two as well) i think that our best move is to split into groups of 3 and 4 spread out over sections 2, 3, 7, and 8.

Aquinas - Suggested max spread.
KevinH - Agreed, added CYA clause.
EM - FOS'd Aquinas and KevinH by quoting KevinH
AoD - Agreed with no supporting reason.
Narsis - Initial support of Max Spread, & supports free choice of rooms, changes to Non-connected after my post
Firkked - First posted statement of non-connected strategy.

EM - While I don't disagree that you had the same idea, I believe I beat you to the punch by posting first. However, my "Townie vibe" for Narsis was from his immediately seeing the folly of a 'max spread' strategy after seeing my post (and the previous mod rulings). I understand your skepticism, but that's my reason for why I gave him townie points.

FOS: Angel of Doom - Blanket support of max spread with no support reasons.

FOS: Aquinas - Suggested max spread and didn't follow up with a support of the strategy, instead went to dissecting List/Free-will

Vote: KevinH - Strongly supporting max spread strategy almost immediately after suggesting it and becoming the main proponent, plus added the convenient CYA statement in case the strategy was invalidated.

Don't forget to unvote before voting. I've still counted your vote.

Edited by molestargazer, 30 October 2009 - 03:18 PM.

[KevinH]

4. Different locations may contain items or useful things. The distance of an area to the discussion site has no relevance as to its contents.

I would say we spread out and discover as much as we can on night one about each zone and then adjust for proper benefits (penalties?) on night two and so forth.

Strongly supporting max spread strategy almost immediately after suggesting it and becoming the main proponent, plus added the convenient CYA statement in case the strategy was invalidated.

So let's see. I initially supported a strategy where we could discover as much as we could. A strategy that would narrow down the list of potential scum if a night-kill occurred.

For this, I'm accused of being scum?

[Firkked]

I'm accusing you for strongly supporting a strategy that put the town at greater risk than needed

[Firkked]

EBWOP
I'm accusing you of being scum for....

[KevinH]

At least I supported a strategy that had some pro-town basis.

"Scum-hunters" would not find that quite so bad.

[junkahoolik]

was the strategy for spreading out agreed upon?? can we start scum hunting??

[Kaziocore]

I think we've agreed to spread into 4 non-adjacent rooms.

How about guys we have a poll here to see if we should pick our own rooms or if someone will make a list

[Electric Mango]

I think we've agreed to spread into 4 non-adjacent rooms.

How about guys we have a poll here to see if we should pick our own rooms or if someone will make a list

This is a good idea. I'll keep track of the voting for us but I would like to hear from Narsis 1st. He promised a post to explain why he thinks a pick your own room strategy would work the best. Right now I think it should be random but I'm willing to hear from him first.


@ Firkked - good break down of who supported which strategy.

@ Kevin - The evidence against you isn't damning but if I had to vote for someone........

[CanucksDynasty]

No Lynch Strategy Worst Case Scenario (providing nk on N1)

D1 = no lynch
N1 = dead townie on N1 (max 3 suspects)
D2 = mis-lynch dead townie (from N1 suspects)
N2 = dead townie (may be a totally new set of suspects...max 2)
D3 = mis-lynch dead townie
N3 = dead townie (probably N1 suspect)
D4 = yay lynch mafia (N1 suspect)
N4 = dead townie
D5 = ?

So far = 6 dead townies and 1 mafia by start of D5


Lynch Strategy Worst Case Scenario (providing nk on N1)

D1 = mis-lynch dead townie
N1 = dead townie on N1 (max 2 suspects)
D2 = mis-lynch dead townie (from N1 suspects)
N2 = dead townie (probably N1 suspect
D3 = yay lynch mafia
N3 = dead townie (new set of max 2 suspects)
D4 = ?

So far = 5 dead townies and 1 mafia by start of D4


That's why I think lynching is our best option.
Right now...I'm starting to be more suspicous of those that have voted for a no-lynch
(KevinH and SJ)