1469 replies to this topic

[SinKon]

Well, a random shot is still a shot.
Shot fired is still better than surrender?

The key here is random. That is like the only things that we could use against mafia.
We just don't know.

If we vote no lynch, the mafia gets a free shot at the cop!
Think of it this way, if there is a cop among us, then he will investigate who are the mafias.
If we kill a townie, his chances of hitting a mafia increases because he wouldn't need to investigate the lynched person.
Yeah, the counter is true too. (The mafia, will have a higer chances of hitting him afterward)
But please don't forget, we hit first! we have more people and we could get lucky! XD

With a cop, is like we eliminate 2 mafias suspects everyday!
So, 13 people... 2 suspects eliminated everyday, a max of 6 days! (That is assuming Mafia don't do any killings)
No lynched on the first day is like giving the mafia an extra day to kill the cop.
If the cop is dead...this could get very ugly...

So I am saying by voting no lynch on the first day, you are helping the mafia. Therfore I vote you out.
Nothing personal but: Lynch mob > no lynch.


Who knows, we migh get lucky if you are a mafia
If not, we will name a memorial after you or something...

This is for the good of all, except you. I pretty you sure you would do the same to me or to someone else...
Well, not just you, but everyone here would do that, because is the logical thing to do.
I mean, you did vote no lynch on the first day. Why am I apologizing just now?
Anyway, I will apologize or something if you turn out not to be the mafia and you are lynched because I started a chain of reactions that caused your death...
Is not my fault if you say something from now on that casues you to get lynched.

I feel bad for trying to lynch you now... don't do that! Just die and prove your innocent.
This game brings out the evil within me...

The 'Wow, that lynch mob emote ^ is awesome' VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (1): SinKon

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (10): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Kaziocore, Aquinas, Martino, CanucksDynasty

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:40 PM.

[Narsis]

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town...

first, the lynch/no lynch debate:

the following are several likely scenarios:

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win
D4: 5/2
N4: 4/2
D5: 4/1
N5: 3/1
D6: 3/0 <--- town win

Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 8/3
D2: 7/3
N2: 6/3
D3: 6/2
N3: 5/2
D4: 5/1
N4: 4/1
D5: 4/0 <--- town win


just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win.

but let's continue:

Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10/3
N1: 10/3
D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 9/3
D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way.

Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10/3
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 8/3
D2: 7/3
N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario.


looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option.

now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win.

lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win.


now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.


anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

[Sir Jesus]

Yeah.....

Just die and prove I'm innocent. Because that helps the town.

[Narsis]

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town...

first, the lynch/no lynch debate:

the following are several likely scenarios:

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win
D4: 5/2
N4: 4/2
D5: 4/1
N5: 3/1
D6: 3/0 <--- town win

Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 8/3
D2: 7/3
N2: 6/3
D3: 6/2
N3: 5/2
D4: 5/1
N4: 4/1
D5: 4/0 <--- town win


just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win.

but let's continue:

Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10/3
N1: 10/3
D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 9/3
D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way.

Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10/3
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 8/3
D2: 7/3
N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario.


looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option.

now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win.

lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win.


now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.


anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

[Electric Mango]

@ Naris - WOW

I give your post 9.5/10

If you would have had a graph, chart, or a picture, I would have given you a 10.

Keep up the good work.

[Narsis]

sorry for the double post...

[SinKon]

See! My instinct is correct!
We HAVE to lynch on the first day!
It is the best and sometime only way!
I have the backing of Narsis!
AND Sir Jesus, you did not answer my question.
If we don't lynch on the first day, how would that make things better?

Yeah! I only joined today and I already realized what it takes make us win!
Now you are more than likely to be a mafia!
KevinH don't think I forgot about you!

Thank you Nasis!
Narsis, if we lynch both Sir Jesus and KevinH and somehow, they turn out to be townies, we are still save right?

[SinKon]

So a game this side usually have 4 mafia right?
Then they are spliting up their people and mix with us so it will make it harder for us to track them down.
This is a good strategy indeed...
We have to counter it!
Who has some good idea?

[SinKon]

AH, I hate the no editing rule....
Look, I will post in good english next time.
Sorry about the engrish, I got too excited.

[KevinH]

This doesn't make sense to me.
Yes, we don't know whom the scums are
Yes, the scums knows who we are

If we self-select, that will give the scum a potential advantage? What are you talking about?!
What advantage?
So you are saying we shouldn't self-select but be selected by scums?
That doesn't make sense to me and I believe, no one confronted you on that, so I will do it :lolcharge:
Please explain. XD

I think I answered that in this post:

By self-select, I mean allowing each player to choose where he wants to go (even within constraints). If the mafia wanted to spread out, we couldn't stop them. If the mafia wanted to do something in the cockpit, we couldn't stop them.

I am in favor of someone publishing a list and everyone following it. CD's list is as good as any.

The course we are taking now will allow the mafia to get into the room of their choice. I don't know if that matters, but we didn't need to allow it.

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.
Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

[SinKon]

OK, so you are pro list. I am cool with that.

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.
Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

Let me think this over...

[Firkked]

I know it's late and I'm tired, but Narsis still made sense about the list.

Add to that we don't know how much time before the plane crashes.

Although spreading out and tracking moves would make the most of exploration before the inevitible crash, the room split on N1/N2 still covers every spot, we won't know until D2 if there's any "pushing button Y in room Z allows access to item W in room X" scenarios. I'm putting a low probability on that scenario.

I'm still for a Hybrid list and a lynching.

A reasonable debate controlled by 3 characters with either a vote or having been FoS'd doesn't make the scenarios presented above any more or less of a self-evident truth.

Mod: As to your note on my post HERE, I did unvote on the previous page HERE. This is not to be antagonistic, I just want to show that I am adhering to standard mafia rules in an effort to prevent any future misunderstandings, this is only my 3rd game but I don't want to get an undeserved bad rep :flail:

[junkahoolik]

now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.


anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

if there is no random list, it will mean that mafia will be able to kill anyone they want because they will have access to the people they suspect. it's d1 so most likely they didn't have the chance to talk it out first. so they will not spread out yet in a organized fashion. they will however be able to see where their buddies went and choose the room where one of them didn't go. then, they will have a debate on who they think is a power role and go for a nk unhindered by any limitations. truth is that if a list does by luck put 2 mafia in the same room, they will only have a selection of 2 targets to choose from. maybe 3 if THEY are lucky in this scenario.
so yeah EM, i'm voting for a random list.

[junkahoolik]

and narsis, i didn't get your reasoning really. what's the key??

[Kaziocore]

Well, a random shot is still a shot.
Shot fired is still better than surrender?

The key here is random. That is like the only things that we could use against mafia.
We just don't know.

If we vote no lynch, the mafia gets a free shot at the cop!
Think of it this way, if there is a cop among us, then he will investigate who are the mafias.
If we kill a townie, his chances of hitting a mafia increases because he wouldn't need to investigate the lynched person.
Yeah, the counter is true too. (The mafia, will have a higer chances of hitting him afterward)
But please don't forget, we hit first! we have more people and we could get lucky! XD

With a cop, is like we eliminate 2 mafias suspects everyday!
So, 13 people... 2 suspects eliminated everyday, a max of 6 days! (That is assuming Mafia don't do any killings)
No lynched on the first day is like giving the mafia an extra day to kill the cop.
If the cop is dead...this could get very ugly...

So I am saying by voting no lynch on the first day, you are helping the mafia. Therfore I vote you out.
Nothing personal but: Lynch mob > no lynch.


Who knows, we migh get lucky if you are a mafia
If not, we will name a memorial after you or something...

This is for the good of all, except you. I pretty you sure you would do the same to me or to someone else...
Well, not just you, but everyone here would do that, because is the logical thing to do.
I mean, you did vote no lynch on the first day. Why am I apologizing just now?
Anyway, I will apologize or something if you turn out not to be the mafia and you are lynched because I started a chain of reactions that caused your death...
Is not my fault if you say something from now on that casues you to get lynched.

I feel bad for trying to lynch you now... don't do that! Just die and prove your innocent.
This game brings out the evil within me...

Actually, I prefer someone else to lynch like for example, crazyemolad. If you say even a random shot could help the town why not him? I haven't heard from him for quite a while. His last post was on Oct 28 (Page #7). Keeping inactive (or probably lurker) people won't help us. So I'm gonna FOS him...

FOS: crazyemoload

[Kaziocore]

I'll vote for him instead...

If I don't see any other guys worth lynching, I'll stick to crazyemoload since I believe a lynch would really help the townie. I'm not convinced just because SJ and KevinH voted for no lynch, they're worth lynching now. If they turn out to be townie, it would be a loss to us since I think they're both good in this game. If crazyemoload turns out to be townie, I don't think it's a great loss since we don't see him anyway that much.

Vote: crazyemoload

[Narsis]

and narsis, i didn't get your reasoning really. what's the key??

here:

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town...

first, the lynch/no lynch debate:

the following are several likely scenarios:

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win
D4: 5/2
N4: 4/2
D5: 4/1
N5: 3/1
D6: 3/0 <--- town win

Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 8/3
D2: 7/3
N2: 6/3
D3: 6/2
N3: 5/2
D4: 5/1
N4: 4/1
D5: 4/0 <--- town win


just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win.

but let's continue:

Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10/3
N1: 10/3
D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 9/3
D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way.

Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10/3
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 9/3
N1: 8/3
D2: 7/3
N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario.


looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option.

now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win.

lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win.

as an addition to the above(sorta forgot to write it earlier): the sooner the game ends the better as it means less chance of us reaching a day where mole decided that a plane would crash and thus less of a chance of it ruining the plan.

if there is no random list, it will mean that mafia will be able to kill anyone they want because they will have access to the people they suspect. it's d1 so most likely they didn't have the chance to talk it out first. so they will not spread out yet in a organized fashion. they will however be able to see where their buddies went and choose the room where one of them didn't go. then, they will have a debate on who they think is a power role and go for a nk unhindered by any limitations. truth is that if a list does by luck put 2 mafia in the same room, they will only have a selection of 2 targets to choose from. maybe 3 if THEY are lucky in this scenario.
so yeah EM, i'm voting for a random list.

that my friend is the entire point! we want mafia to choose where they are going as it allows us to figure out who they are! it's the exact same situation with voting. would you want mafia never to vote and just lurk? of course not! so why the difference here?

also just some odds:

chance of picking mafia: 1: 3/13, 2: 1/26, 3: 1/286
chance of getting mafia into same room: 2: 1/104, 3: 1/1144

a 1/104 chance of the random list even being useful by your standards. the other 103/104 will only hurt the town.

also try rereading this(bolded for emphasis):

now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.

[Narsis]

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.
Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

actually the argument is quite sound.

of course you think this in even a normal game...in this game lynching will help us out quite a bit more.

@Sinkon:

i believe you mentioned that there are usually 4 mafia...actually in a game this size i would bet more on 3 mafia and an sk, however 4 mafia isn't out of the question.


actually that's one of the reasons lynching today is best. by lynching today, we make it impossible for the mafia to win with 4 people via night kills. the only way they could win if we lynch is to nk until they hit the cop, and that only lasts for 2 nights. that's one less chance of them getting a shot at the cop. even you, KevinH, the guy that thinks a follow the cop is the best strategy in every game, has to admit that the less chance mafia have of hitting the cop the better.

[SinKon]

Anyway, Narsis, I still don't get it.
Wouldn't it be better to follow a list.
Yeah, sure then there will be no reason why a person should be in a room because he/she would be told to do so.
So? That doesn't stop us from lynching him XD
If we know there is a mafia somewhere in that room, we will just keep lynching until we get him!
Hey, the odd is much better than picking from the entire group.

I am still thinking about what KevinH said about not lynching.
My logic is, since we are lynching anyway, why not do so on the first day?
His counter, I believe, like Sir Jesus, is that the odd gets alot better on the second day.
I agree the odds get alot better but we lose the first strike. (I am still thinking about this and Narsis, I need your help)

Narsis, I read your scenarios, but please do a little bit more work as to how many townies we will lose if we go lynching the first day and still be able to win and compare that to a no lynch.

Kaziocore, we don't know if crazyemoload is inactive, a mafia staying quit or something else...

Back to my logic for a second, as I think is still sounded.
We can't kill the cop if we have one.
A cop should be pro lynch because that makes his job easier.
Anyone else is fair game. ~.~

Narsis, I really need to know, what is the upper limit of killed townies in here. It would be 3 OK lynch if this is a normal game with 13 people, if there were 4 mafia. We must get a mafia by the 4th lynch! Then no mistake could be made by then! This game has the room thingy which change something, I believe, but I don't know what.

[Falzis]

Well, what more can I add. I still believe in Narsis' justifications. But the hybrid would still work it out I believe. And the lynch is a moot debate, that was the first consensus we've had.