1469 replies to this topic

[SinKon]

Are we picking room already?
Why don't we just do it by sign up orders?
It saves the trouble of going through this.
But hey! I don't care.
(3 people in a room right?)
So I pick
Room 2 then 3 then 6 then 9.
If they are not filled.
Just put me down like this next time, unless I say otherwise. I will tell you before NOT to put me in a room sos and so who I think is a mafia, and you can be sure I will try to lynch that person the very next day. XD

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:42 PM.

[Narsis]

OK, I'll give it another go.

I assume that out of the 13 players there are 3 mafia players. I have also assumed we lynch a townie on D1. Of course the numbers change dramatically if we lynch a scum, but lets focus on the more likely scenario that we lynch a townie.

Now if we look at the first scum player. He has a 1/13 chance of being put in position 1 of room 1. However, it does not matter for us if he ends up in room 1, 2 3 or 4. Nor does it matter if he ends up in position 1,2 or 3. All that matters is that in any of the other two positions in that room is another scum.

So we randomly divide all players across all rooms and then look at the room that contains scum player 1. Together with him in this room are two more players. We have removed scum player 1, so there are 2 scum players and 9 townies left. This gives a 2 in 11 chance that the first of the two other players in the same room as scum player 1 is also scum. If that is the case we have succeeded in putting two scum together and the list was a succes.

However, if the player was a townie we are left with 2 scum and 8 townies. We will thus have a 2 in 10 chance that the last player in this room is scum. Again, if he is this is the end of the analysis and we have successfully groupen scum together.

If he was another townie, we are left with 2 scum and 7 townies. We now select the room where scum player 2 was put. Again, it does not matter which room this is, nor which position in this room he has. So we have 1 scum and 7 townies left. So that gives us a 1 in 8 chance that the first other player in this room is the last remaining scum (I see I forgot one townie in my previous analysis).

If, however, this players was another townie, then we have 1 scum and 6 townies left. In other words, we have a 1 in 7 chance that the second person in the same room as scum player 2 is the last scum.

If we combine these odds, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/8+1/7 chance that we group two scum together. These chances add up to a total of 65%. I hope it was clear this time. If not, please let me know where I am unclear or simply wrong.

still wrong(if you dont mind me saying).

it actually does matter which room...or rather the total order.

basically i went and did a bunch of combination trees and looked at all possible combinations where there could be 2 or more mafia in a room regardless of when they or which room they were chosen to be in.

the result:

a 7/286 or 2.45% chance of getting 3 mafia in a room together.

a 123/286 or 43% chance of getting 2 mafia in a room together.

this makes a total of 130/286 or 45.45% chance of getting 2 or more mafia in a room together.

(btw: if you are interested in my exact method and how it works out...feel free to ask. i could write some image or something up to show you.)

even so...getting 3 in the same room isn't a good idea. it means they wont nightkill(unless they are in the 4 room), and thus holds back
information. also it means that the cop can't investigate them.

getting 2 mafia into the same room does help in a sense...we limit their nk choices to only 3 or 4 people.

[Martino]

still wrong(if you dont mind me saying).

it actually does matter which room...or rather the total order.

basically i went and did a bunch of combination trees and looked at all possible combinations where there could be 2 or more mafia in a room regardless of when they or which room they were chosen to be in.

the result:

a 7/286 or 2.45% chance of getting 3 mafia in a room together.

a 123/286 or 43% chance of getting 2 mafia in a room together.

this makes a total of 130/286 or 45.45% chance of getting 2 or more mafia in a room together.

(btw: if you are interested in my exact method and how it works out...feel free to ask. i could write some image or something up to show you.)

even so...getting 3 in the same room isn't a good idea. it means they wont nightkill(unless they are in the 4 room), and thus holds back
information. also it means that the cop can't investigate them.

getting 2 mafia into the same room does help in a sense...we limit their nk choices to only 3 or 4 people.

I would be interested in seeing how you did it. I know my method oversimplified things a bit, so I'm curious to see where the difference comes from. Though the main point of my post stand. Our odds were much better than the initial 1% that was given.

[Narsis]

I would be interested in seeing how you did it. I know my method oversimplified things a bit, so I'm curious to see where the difference comes from. Though the main point of my post stand. Our odds were much better than the initial 1% that was given.

indeed.

i'll write something up...

[SinKon]

Please be something simple.
Well... simple enough for me to understand, please.
Thank you.

You too Martino, I hear what you say but do not get what you mean. At least with Narsis, I get, this part is good for us but this part about free picking room is no good.
You get me?

[Kaziocore]

Anyway, I don't know why you hate crazyemoload so much but he could be the cop, someone we don't want to kill.
I think, you need a better reason than that, especially when we have no lynchers among us who could be mafia or just hippies.

I doubt he is a cop. I've never seen an inactive cop before. But it's been a week now since his last post, he should have been replaced by now.

[SinKon]

We have another candidate for lynching but if he is inactive therefore not a cop, what are chances that he is a mafia?
At least if he is lurking then he might be a mafia...
Anyone see him lurking?

[SinKon]

Hello angel of doom, see you are reading.
Nothing much is happening thought...
Yeah lynching mafia is fun!
Thats right mafia! I say is a pleasure to lynch you! Whats you gonna do?
Don't kill me, look for the cop... yes look for him, not me!

[Narsis]

you replaced angel of doom...dont think you can lynch him...

[SinKon]

Oh yeah! I replaced him
I think I screwed up royally here thought...
This is very bad, sorry angel. I see you are reading again!
I probably, got you killed just now because I got so excited from being able to join a game. I said something really stupid...

Now, that I think about it.
I fingered Sir jesus and KevinH, if both of them are mafia, or at least one of them is a mafia, I will probably get a revenge kill and if they are not, I will get killed to put suspicion on them...
Either way, I get kill...
Sorry, I am new here.

[SinKon]

I have to say. This is doing miracles on my post count!
Instead of the boring "no you" "yes me" thingy of that sort. I am actually enjoying it!
I think I could achieve "Extreme Spammer" if I don't get kill
Alas, it will not happend, I am afriad....

[Electric Mango]

Pro List (7)
--------

Electric Mango
KevinH
Sir Jesus
Martino
SinKon (Angel of Doom)
Junkahoolic
Canucks Dynasty

Anti List (0)
---------

Pro Hybrid (5)
-------------

Aquinas
Falzis
Kaziocore
Firkked
Narsis


Not Voting (1)
------------

crazymolad

In any case...I'll go with the majority regarding the list.

Cd's vote tips the scales to favor Pro List.

I'll create random room assignments based off of the NYSE.

I'll post the details shortly.

[Electric Mango]

1. Narsis - Citigroup
2. Junkahoolik - Ford Motor Company
3. Electric Mango - Bank of America Corporation
4. KevinH - Shering Plough Corporation
5. Firkked - General Electric Company
6. Sir Jesus - Merck & Co Inc
7. crazyemolad - Motorola Inc.
8. angel of doom - Burlington Northern Sante Fe Corporation
9. Falzis - Pfizer Inc.
10. Kaziocore - Boston Scientific Corporation
11. Aquinas - Fannie Mae
12. CanucksDynasty - Sprint Nextel Corporation

13. Martino - Slot filler or 1st lynchee




I took the top 12 most active stocks on the NYSE.

The 1st most active I assigned to player 1, the 2nd most active I assigned to player 2, etc.

On the end of business Monday the 9th I will do another screen shot.

The top 3 biggest gainers will be in room 1

Next 3 in room 4

Next 3 in room 7

Bottom 3 in room 8

Tie breaker will go to the person highest on the sign up sheet.

[Firkked]

Oh yeah! I replaced him
I think I screwed up royally here thought...
This is very bad, sorry angel. I see you are reading again!
I probably, got you killed just now because I got so excited from being able to join a game. I said something really stupid...

Now, that I think about it.
I fingered Sir jesus and KevinH, if both of them are mafia, or at least one of them is a mafia, I will probably get a revenge kill and if they are not, I will get killed to put suspicion on them...
Either way, I get kill...
Sorry, I am new here.

FYI the mod will post the current vote count at the end of the first post of every page...

This helps for a quick check of current votes.

[SinKon]

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation?
That name sounds gay!
Why can't I get a normal one like Bank of America or GE! Hell I will even take Fannie Mae.

But seriously, Santa Fe Corp? Do they have their headquater at the North Pole with bunch of midget elves?
Come on!

[SinKon]

Where is the current vote? I don't see it even when I go a few pages back.

[SinKon]

OK, the last count was before my time.
Oh well...

[SinKon]

OH! Is a railroad company with the support of Warren Buffett!
Nevermind, as long as Warren Buffett doesn't think is gay. I am cool.

[SinKon]

Sir Jesus is lurking! or is ready to post something...

[Sir Jesus]

I guess I should put my tuition money to work...

Statistical probability of 2 mafia in one room

Assuming:
-3 mafia out of 12 [townie lynched]
-4 randomly selected rooms
-3 people assigned to a room (making a total of 12 possible "spots")

Mafia #1
-Goes to random room
-0% chance of being place with other mafia (at start)

Mafia #2
-Goes to one of 11 "spots"
-Mafia occupies room with two remaining "spots"
-There is a 2/11 chance of being placed with mafia #1
-If Mafia #2 doesn't get matched with Mafia #1, he will occupy a second room

[Keep in mind, mafia now occupy 2 of 4 rooms or 50%]

Mafia #3
-Goes to one of 10 "spots"
-Mafia occupies rooms with 4 remaining "spots"
-There is a 4/10 chance of being placed with Mafia #1 or Mafia #2


So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)......
-2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18%
-4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40%

This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1.

Let's assume #2 fails to match:
For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance


This means there is a 51% chance the mafia would be paired together randomly.


In order to calculate the odds of all 3 being in the same room, we want to apply the same process...

Mafia #1
-Produces no odds, sets up probability chain

Mafia #2
-Has a 2/11 chance of joining #1 in his room. (two of eleven spots)

Mafia #3
-Has a 1/10 chance of joining #1 and #2 in his room. (one of ten spots)


Mafia #2 has a 18% chance of joining
Mafia #3 has a 10% chance of joining

To find the probability of success we multiply the chances: .18 * .1 = 1.8%


There is a 1.8% chance that 3 mafia will be placed in the same room.