1469 replies to this topic

[Narsis]

Anyway, Narsis, I still don't get it.
Wouldn't it be better to follow a list.
Yeah, sure then there will be no reason why a person should be in a room because he/she would be told to do so.
So? That doesn't stop us from lynching him XD
If we know there is a mafia somewhere in that room, we will just keep lynching until we get him!
Hey, the odd is much better than picking from the entire group.

indeed. that is why i said that the list/no list debate is more or less useless. if the mafia keep nk'ing then we will win regardless. however, if the mafia stop nk'ing for any reason, or if we lose the map mechanic, then the additional information from letting them choose becomes worth quite a bit more.

I am still thinking about what KevinH said about not lynching.
My logic is, since we are lynching anyway, why not do so on the first day?
His counter, I believe, like Sir Jesus, is that the odd gets alot better on the second day.
I agree the odds get alot better but we lose the first strike. (I am still thinking about this and Narsis, I need your help)

Narsis, I read your scenarios, but please do a little bit more work as to how many townies we will lose if we go lynching the first day and still be able to win and compare that to a no lynch.

Kaziocore, we don't know if crazyemoload is inactive, a mafia staying quit or something else...

Back to my logic for a second, as I think is still sounded.
We can't kill the cop if we have one.
A cop should be pro lynch because that makes his job easier.
Anyone else is fair game. ~.~

Narsis, I really need to know, what is the upper limit of killed townies in here. It would be 3 OK lynch if this is a normal game with 13 people, if there were 4 mafia. We must get a mafia by the 4th lynch! Then no mistake could be made by then! This game has the room thingy which change something, I believe, but I don't know what.

if you read the scenarios, the numbers i posted for each day are remaining town/mafia after that day. so by no lynching, we would have only 3 townies remaining and would take us to Day 6. with a lynch, we would have 4 remaining and done by Day 5.

of course that's scenario's 1 and 2. for 3/4, then a no lynch would be best...but it doesnt really matter much either way.

for 5/6 it depends on what the mafia do and how lucky they are. if they stop nk'ing by N3, then it will likely continue as a normal game, but without nks, giving the town a major advantage.


in general i can only predict how many will be alive for scenarios 1/2. for the rest it comes down to things that i cannot predict, ie. how well the mafia blends in with the town, whether we have a cop or not, and how skilled the town is at picking out the mafia. even so, the town is in a very strong position.

also, with 4 mafia we could myslynch only twice and still win. even then those two mylynches is the max possible if the mafia nk. afterwards it will be impossible for the town to lose if they keep nk'ing.

with a no lynch however, the mafia will get 3 nks for a total of 5 dead townies. that would make it a mafia win if they have 4. with a lynch, they could only nk twice making it only 4 dead townies.

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (1): SinKon
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (9): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino, CanucksDynasty

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:41 PM.

[Kaziocore]

Kaziocore, we don't know if crazyemoload is inactive, a mafia staying quit or something else...

If he's inactive then he's lurking which is worse.

[Martino]

also just some odds:

chance of picking mafia: 1: 3/13, 2: 1/26, 3: 1/286
chance of getting mafia into same room: 2: 1/104, 3: 1/1144

a 1/104 chance of the random list even being useful by your standards. the other 103/104 will only hurt the town.

That math is horribly wrong. How on earth can we have a less than one percent chance of coupling scum together if we have only 13 players?

Let's assume we have 3 scum in 13 players, we lynch a townie today and we put everyone else randomly in a room. It doesn't matter in which room the first scum ends up, so for simplicity let's put him in room 1. Then there is a 2/11 chance that one of the other two scum is the first other player that was put into that room. If instead a townie get's put into that room, there is a 2/10 chance that one of the other scum is the third player in that room. Assuming that we put yet another townie this leaves 2 scum and 7 townies for the other 3 rooms. For simplicity lets put scum number two in room 2. Then we have a 1/7 chance that the final scum is the second person in this room and a 1/6 chance that he is the third person in this room. Adding all together, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/7+1/6 chance that we put scum together in a room. Or about 69%. Those odds don't look so bad to me.

[Falzis]

Alright you guys got me lost on the permutations.

[CanucksDynasty]

That math is horribly wrong. How on earth can we have a less than one percent chance of coupling scum together if we have only 13 players?

Let's assume we have 3 scum in 13 players, we lynch a townie today and we put everyone else randomly in a room. It doesn't matter in which room the first scum ends up, so for simplicity let's put him in room 1. Then there is a 2/11 chance that one of the other two scum is the first other player that was put into that room. If instead a townie get's put into that room, there is a 2/10 chance that one of the other scum is the third player in that room. Assuming that we put yet another townie this leaves 2 scum and 7 townies for the other 3 rooms. For simplicity lets put scum number two in room 2. Then we have a 1/7 chance that the final scum is the second person in this room and a 1/6 chance that he is the third person in this room. Adding all together, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/7+1/6 chance that we put scum together in a room. Or about 69%. Those odds don't look so bad to me.

If I used your math...I would have won the lottery years ago.

We have 13 players with a presumed 3 mafia.

For getting all 3 mafia....

There are 13 possibilities to get one mafia. There are 12 possibilities of getting a 2nd mafia and finally 11 possiblities of getting the 3rd mafia.
If we mutlitply them we get 13x12x11 = 1716.
There are 3 choices for the first mafia, 2 choices for the 2nd mafia, 1 choice for the 3rd mafia.
Multiply them we get 3x2x1= 6

So the odds of getting all 3 in the same room is 6/1716 = 1/286 = 0.35%

For getting at least 2 out of 3 mafia....
There are 3 ways to include exactly 2 mafia out of 3 mafia. The remaining number must be one of the 10 players left after the 3 mafia have been excluded. Thus we get 3x10 = 30 ways to pick 2 of 3 mafia out of 13 players.

So the odds of getting 2 mafia out of 13 players in the same room is 30/286 = 1/95 = 1%

Note: It doesn't matter that there are 4 rooms.
The goal is to correctly group at least 2 out of 3 mafia in one room.


Now tell how you like your odds???

[CanucksDynasty]

EBWOP

That sould be 1716 instead of 286.

For getting at least 2 out of 3 mafia....
There are 3 ways to include exactly 2 mafia out of 3 mafia. The remaining number must be one of the 10 players left after the 3 mafia have been excluded. Thus we get 3x10 = 30 ways to pick 2 of 3 mafia out of 13 players.

So the odds of getting 2 mafia out of 13 players in the same room is 30/1716 = 1/57 = 1.75%

[CanucksDynasty]

Meh...maybe my math is just plain wrong.
In any case...I'll go with the majority regarding the list.

As for the lynch...

Vote: Sir Jesus

I'm suspicous of his no lynch stance.
He gets my vote for the time being.

[SinKon]

The lynch is a moot debate? Moot?
What consensus? with whom?
What make you say that?
It is the only way we could lynch mafia?

Are you pro lynch or no lynch Falzis?
Pick a side! You are being very ambagious here.

[junkahoolik]

i think it's wrong... it's too little if you as me. and i know it's a long shot to hope we get 2 in the same room the main goal was not allowing them to chose their target freely.

[SinKon]

We can't assume 3. There could be 4 just not 5!
I am terrible at math so just tell me how many save lynched we get if there were 4 mafias?

Narsis, I am still saying pro list, in fact I want everybody to get assign to a different room and STAY THERE FOREVER!!! XD Well, not forever, and we don't have that many room, just a few days to let cop check everybody in his/her room then we move on.

Hey, if the cop get kills for not picking the mafia before he gets kill, that Is kinda not our fault, but his scarafice will be worth something! We will exterminate that room if we have to but get a sure kill!

AND we will lynch anybody moving on their own!

Martino, please break up your reasons and points and have them on different lines, It is kinda harder to understand when you bunch them up... I don't understand you, therefore you are wrong! XD

Kaziocore, there is somthing seriously wrong with you pic there... dangling a carrot infront of underage girls....
Anyway, I don't know why you hate crazyemoload so much but he could be the cop, someone we don't want to kill.
I think, you need a better reason than that, especially when we have no lynchers among us who could be mafia or just hippies.

[Martino]

As I said in my first post, it doesn not matter in which room you put the first mafia. He will inevitably end up in a room. You shouldn't be multiplying by the percentage that scum 1 ends up in a certain room. I think that is the biggest mistake both you and Narsis made. We are not trying to get 2 scum in positions 1 and 2 of room 1, we are trying to get 2 scum in any two positions in any room.

[SinKon]

I don't care what room the scums get put in! As long as is not in my room and we get them killed!
Beside, we don't know who the scums are!
Are you pro lynch or no lynch?
That is my question!

[Martino]

Martino, please break up your reasons and points and have them on different lines, It is kinda harder to understand when you bunch them up... I don't understand you, therefore you are wrong! XD

OK, I'll give it another go.

I assume that out of the 13 players there are 3 mafia players. I have also assumed we lynch a townie on D1. Of course the numbers change dramatically if we lynch a scum, but lets focus on the more likely scenario that we lynch a townie.

Now if we look at the first scum player. He has a 1/13 chance of being put in position 1 of room 1. However, it does not matter for us if he ends up in room 1, 2 3 or 4. Nor does it matter if he ends up in position 1,2 or 3. All that matters is that in any of the other two positions in that room is another scum.

So we randomly divide all players across all rooms and then look at the room that contains scum player 1. Together with him in this room are two more players. We have removed scum player 1, so there are 2 scum players and 9 townies left. This gives a 2 in 11 chance that the first of the two other players in the same room as scum player 1 is also scum. If that is the case we have succeeded in putting two scum together and the list was a succes.

However, if the player was a townie we are left with 2 scum and 8 townies. We will thus have a 2 in 10 chance that the last player in this room is scum. Again, if he is this is the end of the analysis and we have successfully groupen scum together.

If he was another townie, we are left with 2 scum and 7 townies. We now select the room where scum player 2 was put. Again, it does not matter which room this is, nor which position in this room he has. So we have 1 scum and 7 townies left. So that gives us a 1 in 8 chance that the first other player in this room is the last remaining scum (I see I forgot one townie in my previous analysis).

If, however, this players was another townie, then we have 1 scum and 6 townies left. In other words, we have a 1 in 7 chance that the second person in the same room as scum player 2 is the last scum.

If we combine these odds, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/8+1/7 chance that we group two scum together. These chances add up to a total of 65%. I hope it was clear this time. If not, please let me know where I am unclear or simply wrong.

[Martino]

I don't care what room the scums get put in! As long as is not in my room and we get them killed!
Beside, we don't know who the scums are!
Are you pro lynch or no lynch?
That is my question!

About the no lynch vs lynch. I'm strongly in favor of lynching. First of all, we gain absolutely no information from voting no lynch. Secondly, we greatly increase the chance of a nightkill because the scum will be much more tempted to kill if they are in a room with 4 than when they are in a room with 3. Finally, we have much worse odds of finding the scum if a nightkill happens (assuming that one scum will be in the room with 4 players).

[Falzis]

The lynch is a moot debate? Moot?
What consensus? with whom?
What make you say that?
It is the only way we could lynch mafia?

Are you pro lynch or no lynch Falzis?
Pick a side! You are being very ambagious here.

I was, am and forever will be pro lynch unless it's obvious a no lynch strategy is conducive to a game's set up. Which isn't the case in this game. It's moot because it's obvious we benefit more from lynching than not. Not because we can be lucky and lynch a mafia but because we can get information and the 3-people-per-room-thingy.

[SinKon]

Cool!
I think the rooms are great. As to putting scums togather, well I don't get it but if it works then it works.

The rooms are great because if the scums do a kill there, well our suspects just went from 13 to 3!
Hey! is those are some good chances. If we failed to lynch the mafia the next lynch is 50/50!
If we failed again... 3rd time's the charm?

If they do other killings in another room... and we haven't lynched the mafia in the first room then we could mix those two rooms and play Sudoku with them. I believe that is what we need to think about.

[Falzis]

OK, I'll give it another go.

I assume that out of the 13 players there are 3 mafia players. I have also assumed we lynch a townie on D1. Of course the numbers change dramatically if we lynch a scum, but lets focus on the more likely scenario that we lynch a townie.

Now if we look at the first scum player. He has a 1/13 chance of being put in position 1 of room 1. However, it does not matter for us if he ends up in room 1, 2 3 or 4. Nor does it matter if he ends up in position 1,2 or 3. All that matters is that in any of the other two positions in that room is another scum.

So we randomly divide all players across all rooms and then look at the room that contains scum player 1. Together with him in this room are two more players. We have removed scum player 1, so there are 2 scum players and 9 townies left. This gives a 2 in 11 chance that the first of the two other players in the same room as scum player 1 is also scum. If that is the case we have succeeded in putting two scum together and the list was a succes.

However, if the player was a townie we are left with 2 scum and 8 townies. We will thus have a 2 in 10 chance that the last player in this room is scum. Again, if he is this is the end of the analysis and we have successfully groupen scum together.

If he was another townie, we are left with 2 scum and 7 townies. We now select the room where scum player 2 was put. Again, it does not matter which room this is, nor which position in this room he has. So we have 1 scum and 7 townies left. So that gives us a 1 in 8 chance that the first other player in this room is the last remaining scum (I see I forgot one townie in my previous analysis).

If, however, this players was another townie, then we have 1 scum and 6 townies left. In other words, we have a 1 in 7 chance that the second person in the same room as scum player 2 is the last scum.

If we combine these odds, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/8+1/7 chance that we group two scum together. These chances add up to a total of 65%. I hope it was clear this time. If not, please let me know where I am unclear or simply wrong.

So you think a random list assigning people's room is better than a hybrid or a free-for-all? Sorry I can't condense your post I'm getting dizzy from the permutations and SinKon's unique posting style.

[SinKon]

I was, am and forever will be pro lynch unless it's obvious a no lynch strategy is conducive to a game's set up. Which isn't the case in this game. It's moot because it's obvious we benefit more from lynching than not. Not because we can be lucky and lynch a mafia but because we can get information and the 3-people-per-room-thingy.

That is the point of lynching! Getting lucky!

The room thingy is for us to get luckier.
Instead of using a 13 sided dice, we use a 3 sided dice (well...for the sake of the argument, lets say there is one)
If that fails, we use a coin. XD

But I am cool, as long as you are pro lynch.

[Martino]

So you think a random list assigning people's room is better than a hybrid or a free-for-all? Sorry I can't condense your post I'm getting dizzy from the permutations and SinKon's unique posting style.

Yes, I was trying to show that using a list will give us a good chance of putting at least two scum together in one room. Something which would greatly limit the nightkill possibilities for the scum.

[CanucksDynasty]

List/no list...I don't really care at this point.
15 pages of rambling.

So far I think 1 vote for crazy and 2 votes for SJ.

Anybody else want to chime in/vote on who they think is suspicious?


*********

Rooms #2,3,6,9 to be chosen only (I assume since Narsis posted and nobody cares).

PRO-HYBIRD LIST

1. Narsis - #6
2. Junkahoolik
3. Electric Mango
4. KevinH
5. Firkked
6. Sir Jesus
7. crazyemolad
8. angel of doom
9. Falzis
10. Kaziocore
11. Aquinas
12. CanucksDynasty
13. Martino

Note: some things will probably change depending on who gets lynched.

So junk is the next to choose...