1469 replies to this topic

[SinKon]

So, you are say that we should lynch everybody in a room where sombody gets kill, instead of stopping once we get the mafia in the room.

I am just putting what you suggested in context here:
51% chance that 2 mafias are in a room togater.
So, if is a 3 people room then we start lynching and we if get lucky with our first lynch and hit a mafia but then we should continue to lynch until everyone in the room is dead.

Now, I though you are a no first day lynch person.
If this happens in the room where there is 4 people (someone got kill)

YOU ARE SAYING WE SHOULD LYNCH THE OTHER 3? Even if we get the mafia on the first or second lynch?
That doesn't make any sense at all and it conflicts with your earlier stand!

I am definitely lynching you even if you are a townie!

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:43 PM.

[SinKon]

Sorry, engrish again...
Is getting late...

[Narsis]

I guess I should put my tuition money to work...

Statistical probability of 2 mafia in one room

Assuming:
-3 mafia out of 12 [townie lynched]
-4 randomly selected rooms
-3 people assigned to a room (making a total of 12 possible "spots")

Mafia #1
-Goes to random room
-0% chance of being place with other mafia (at start)

Mafia #2
-Goes to one of 11 "spots"
-Mafia occupies room with two remaining "spots"
-There is a 2/11 chance of being placed with mafia #1
-If Mafia #2 doesn't get matched with Mafia #1, he will occupy a second room

[Keep in mind, mafia now occupy 2 of 4 rooms or 50%]

Mafia #3
-Goes to one of 10 "spots"
-Mafia occupies rooms with 4 remaining "spots"
-There is a 4/10 chance of being placed with Mafia #1 or Mafia #2


So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)......
-2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18%
-4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40%

This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1.

Let's assume #2 fails to match:
For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance


This means there is a 51% chance the mafia would be paired together randomly.


In order to calculate the odds of all 3 being in the same room, we want to apply the same process...

Mafia #1
-Produces no odds, sets up probability chain

Mafia #2
-Has a 2/11 chance of joining #1 in his room. (two of eleven spots)

Mafia #3
-Has a 1/10 chance of joining #1 and #2 in his room. (one of ten spots)


Mafia #2 has a 18% chance of joining
Mafia #3 has a 10% chance of joining

To find the probability of success we multiply the chances: .18 * .1 = 1.8%


There is a 1.8% chance that 3 mafia will be placed in the same room.

that's essentially what i got, although via a different method. the difference comes from you using 12 people(a lynch secnario) and me using 13 people(a no lynch scenario). either way, it's about 50% odds.


@Sinkon: i like how you are playing and posting and all, but generally it is a good idea to think your post through before you post

although i dont always do that either...


anyway...i'm still against a random list, but like i said in the entirety of things it's not a huge deal.

[SinKon]

Narsis, is that what you proposed too?
I didn't quit understand before but if that is what you and Sir Jesus are suggesting.
That would be the worse idea in the history of bad ideas!
Who brought this up? We should lynch whoever brought this up first!
Is just bad! I haven't figure it out exactly how bad it is. My gut feeling is this is bad mojo.

Look we only get like 3 OK lynches, doing that is way too risky!

Sir Jesus do you have any idea, what are suggesting here?
I am giving you a chance to explain yourself!

[Sir Jesus]

{baseless accusations ... against my statistical analysis}
.....
I am definitely lynching you even if you are a townie!

Yeah.......

unvote
Vote: SinKon

Narsis, is that what you proposed too?
I didn't quit understand before but if that is what you and Sir Jesus are suggesting.
That would be the worse idea in the history of bad ideas!
Who brought this up? We should lynch whoever brought this up first!
Is just bad! I haven't figure it out exactly how bad it is. My gut feeling is this is bad mojo.

Look we only get like 3 OK lynches, doing that is way too risky!

Sir Jesus do you have any idea, what are suggesting here?
I am giving you a chance to explain yourself!

We should lynch whoever brought this up? Are we supposed to punish every single person whose views oppose yours, even if they are contributing new concepts? This is obviously town-like behavior. /sarcasm

You are giving me a chance to explain myself? You have already voted for me, can't play that card now. However, the last post did not carry a single letter of intention or opinion. It was simply a mathematical analysis, meant for you to infer whatever you wish.


Can we please just lynch this guy? He has already admitted he would lynch a townie, for providing an alternative viewpoint and a mathematical analysis. We cannot have people that just want to kill townies...

[Firkked]

Let's get the rooms finalized first, then we can go over the 20-25 pages of "No U!" for the lucky Lynchee.

Until then my vote will stay right where it is.

[SinKon]

Your mathematical analysis would get us all killed!
That is a mafia calculation!
You can't denial what you have posted, you went and contradicted your stand, you come up with a "Mathematical Analysis" that will make us lose.

There are 13 people if there are 3 mafias then we need 4 townies just to be save!
That is we could only lynch 3 townies! 3 mistakes!
Why? because once a lynch occur, a mafia could also do a hit! that is 6 townies dead!
6(dead townies) + 3(mafia) + 4(live townies)= 13 people!

You are saying I punish every single person whose views oppose my own. NO I don't! I was seriously considering KevinH idea because they make some sense.
You are making us waste our OK lynch!
What Mathematical Analysis?
You are telling everyone that there is more chances that another mafia is in the same room as the mafia who carried out a kill!

SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WE GONNA DO?
We will lynch the last person or two!

Instead of telling me what is your reason, or why did you make your point like that.
Twice, you ignored me!

I sincerely gave you my logic! You could go back and see my stand and all my reasons behind them. IF YOU COULD OVERCOME EVEN ONE, I would withdraw my vote.
Why would I even give you a chance to explain yourself if I am sure you are a mafia.

I understand you anger towards me but I am not sure if that is just anger because I voted you, or if that anger comes from being a mafia who just got exposed for trying to sell the town a bad deal!

[KevinH]

Why do we even care if more than one mafia is in a room?

Unless we get really lucky and all 3 mafia end up in a room by themselves, we will see a night-kill and then be suspicious of those in the room. Once one mafia from that room is lynched, we won't necessarily be suspicious of those remaining from that room.

Also consider that the mafia might not night-kill. Rather than face a 1/3 chance of getting lynched tomorrow, they can influence the townies to lynch each other and win that way. If tomorrow's lynch is essentially random, they'll only be facing 3/13 (or 3/12 if we lynch today) chances.

They face the same chances of being discovered by the cop. Do they feel lucky? ...

[junkahoolik]

i'm sick of all these room shuffles. i'm playing to hunt scum not to argue where should everyone spend the night.

[Martino]

So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)......
-2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18%
-4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40%

This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1.

Let's assume #2 fails to match:
For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance

:facepalm: I'm not quite sure how I managed to convince myself that it wouldn't be necessary to take the outcome of the previous scenario into account.
Anyway, please Sinkon try to calm down a little. I know you are excited to be playing your first mafia game and I am happy about that. However, some of your posts are not really helping us. Posts like:

Sorry, engrish again...
Is getting late...

OH! Is a railroad company with the support of Warren Buffett!
Nevermind, as long as Warren Buffett doesn't think is gay. I am cool.

Sir Jesus is lurking! or is ready to post something...

do absolutely nothing to get us any further and just provide us with more fluff to read.

[SinKon]

I think my logic is still sounded. If you could find flaws in my reasoning then I will agree with you.

@KevinH,
Sir Jesus, formula here, if we agree to it, will cause us to be suspicious of those remaining from that room, not that we shouldn't but this will probably get us lynching them. Since we get a 51% that there is another mafia in there.

@junkahoolik,
I didn't think the room thingy would matters either but just look what would happen if we follow Sir jesus formula. Once someone dies in a room, and if get luck lynching the mafia with the first lynch, we should continue to lynch because the "mathematical analysis" shoulds there is a 51% chances that another mafia is in the room.

@Martino
OK, I will admit that I am not that likeable and I am certian, for those of you who dealt with me before I will not listen to you unless, you beat my reasoning. Please just focus here on the logic, which is what, I believe, we should be doing.

I believe this is a bad idea, because we could only lynch 3 townie by mistakes
Once a lynch occur, a mafia could also do a hit! that is 6 townies dead!
6(dead townies) + 3(mafia) + 4(live townies)= 13 people!

If we are convinced by Sir Jesus data, we will mostly lynch a whole room where the mafia did a kill.
That is why I believe Sir Jesus is more than likely to be a mafia. because

He suggested, a no first day lynch (Which he is trying now, although understandable, he changed his stance)
If we followed what he said (I am still thinking about the merit of that since KevinH did make some sense, by no lynching the odds of getting a mod increase the next day)

Anyway, please follow for a sec here:
If we follow what he suggested, and a person is killed in the room with 4 people. We should, according to his "mathematical analysis" then lynch everyone else in the room reguardless if we get the mafia on our first lynch, because there is a 51% chances of another in there.

That would have 3 townies killed, 2 of our OK lynch wasted, and the mafia could do some more killing in another room.
That is why I believe this is a mafia calculation.
That is why I am voting to lynch Sir Jesus right now. (before, I chose him, because he is a no lynch person, which means he is highly unlikely to be the cop. Now I choose to lynch him because he is more than likely to be a mafia.)

If you could beat my reasoning, I will follow you. That is my logic.
Sorry, I posted all that Martino, but I am just enjoying myself, I didn't think that it would become a burden for everyone to read. I though it will be fun.
I understand your point and will not post so much from now on.
Thanks.

[Electric Mango]

SinKon ~ Welcome to the game, I'm glad to have someone playing who has so much enthusiasm. It makes the game enjoyable. I do however, find it hard to read through all of your posts. You post so much and some of them tend to ramble. Please consider tightening them up and making your points easier to find.

Good luck in the scum hunting.

\,,/

[Firkked]

i'm sick of all these room shuffles. i'm playing to hunt scum not to argue where should everyone spend the night.

QFT

Shall we dispense with the obfuscation and start getting back to why we're here?

methinks the passengers digress too much

[Narsis]

@ Sinkon:

i dont think that SJ is suggesting that we lynch the other guy right after a mafia lynch. there are other factors in play besides the probabilities from one night.


for everyone: here's a quick strategy that if applied would do wonders for the town:

D1: lynch. this would be a usual Day 1 lynch, but unlike regular Day 1 lynches, this one has the potential to make it next to impossible for the town to lose, or at least quite difficult.

N1: # people in rooms: 3, 3, 3, 3.

D2: if mafia nk, then combining usual lynching info with the knowledge that one of two people are the mafia, we have a good chance of lynching mafia. if they dont nk, and no one dies, then we go for a no lynch, and in the entirety of things this day is "skipped"(minus the fact that a cop-like role could have investigated).

N2: if we lynch mafia D2, then we "force" the survivor from that room into a 2 person room(thus if they are mafia we essentially make it so they wont nk, or if they do then they are toast; if they are town then they likely won't get nk'd if a mafia ends up in a room with them). otherwise things are as normal. room setup: 2, 2, 3, 3 or 3, 3, 3, 3.

D3: if mafia nk in a 2 person room, then we lynch him. of course we need to take into account the usual stuff, but we would have very good grounds for a lynch. if mafia nk in a 3 person room, its the usual lynch info, and if they nk'd night 1 we also have the fact that there was a greater then 50% chance that the guy that survived the lynch from the room yesterday was mafia, giving us a good shot at a lynch. if they dont nk, and no one dies, then we go for a no lynch and the day is "skipped".

N3: same as night 2, remembering to force survivors from any previous rooms where there was a night kill into a 2 person room; make sure that they arent in the same room if there are two. room setup: 2, 2, 2, 2 or 2, 2, 3, 3, or 3, 3, 3, 3.

D4-win: same as day 3, just remember to take into account the varying probabilities as the days continue.

N4-win: same as night 3, except for room setup.


if at any point we lose access to the map, then the game continues as a normal game, but with the information from the previous days.

[Falzis]

OH! Is a railroad company with the support of Warren Buffett!
Nevermind, as long as Warren Buffett doesn't think is gay. I am cool.

[Out of topic] Excuse me there are gay people in IRON and in society in general. Please avoid using the word gay to connote something as lesser in value like "that's so gay". It's not cool. [/Out of topic]

[Falzis]

anyway...i'm still against a random list, but like i said in the entirety of things it's not a huge deal.

Why the sudden shift in sentiment? Previously you were totally opposed to a random list.

FOS: Narsis

[Narsis]

Why the sudden shift in sentiment? Previously you were totally opposed to a random list.

FOS: Narsis

because as the game has gone on and the conversation continued i have seen why/how a random list would be useful. i'm still against it, but i do see it's uses. also, whether we use a list or not isn't particularly important. what is vastly more important is the information we gain from what room someone was killed in, which we will get regardless of which method we use.

[CanucksDynasty]

Why do we even care if more than one mafia is in a room?

Unless we get really lucky and all 3 mafia end up in a room by themselves, we will see a night-kill and then be suspicious of those in the room. Once one mafia from that room is lynched, we won't necessarily be suspicious of those remaining from that room.

Also consider that the mafia might not night-kill. Rather than face a 1/3 chance of getting lynched tomorrow, they can influence the townies to lynch each other and win that way. If tomorrow's lynch is essentially random, they'll only be facing 3/13 (or 3/12 if we lynch today) chances.

They face the same chances of being discovered by the cop. Do they feel lucky? ...

This.
Really...if we even pair up 2 mafia together...most likely the 3rd mafia would do the killing anyways.

[Falzis]

So a random list would be useless?

[CanucksDynasty]

So a random list would be useless?

I don't know.
The only thing I can think of is that it may limit the target to whom the mafia are grouped with.
That mafia won't get to choose a room to target a pro-town power role.
But as Narsis pointed out...a list may hide mafia's intention (ie. I went to room x cuz that was where I was told to go...etc).