1469 replies to this topic

[SinKon]

This.
Really...if we even pair up 2 mafia together...most likely the 3rd mafia would do the killing anyways.

I agree! So the formula that shows there is a 51% chances that 2 mafia would end up in a room togather is misleading!
Once we lynch the mafia in a room, we should stop lynching the other person in that room.

I believe the mafias only has one intention- to kill us all before we lynch them. I think the only thing we should worry about is not lynching the cop. Other than that we should be find like Narsis said.

The only thing I am worry about is that if they kill one person in a room, then kill another person in another room, before we lynch the mafia in the first room.
If they do a rush on us, could we resiste it or maybe counter it.
I will give an example:
One person got killed in Room A, two people left, 1 has to be the mafia
We lynch, killed a townie, the mafia still lives and could go around killing before we could lynch him the next day.
I will bet people will run!
I don't think anyone is going to follow that list because is just sitting duck
If they all run to the same room, and a kill happens there...who are we going to lynch?

@Falzis
Sorry. I am not against gay or lesbian that just came out...
... What? ^ lol.

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore
SinKon (1): Sir Jesus

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:43 PM.

[Falzis]

I apologize too... was kinda harsh.

Well, if the consensus is still a pro-list, let's go ahead already with that. We've exhausted the discussion on this topic already. We're waiting for Electric Mango's list right?

[CanucksDynasty]

I agree! So the formula that shows there is a 51% chances that 2 mafia would end up in a room togather is misleading!
Once we lynch the mafia in a room, we should stop lynching the other person in that room.

I believe the mafias only has one intention- to kill us all before we lynch them. I think the only thing we should worry about is not lynching the cop. Other than that we should be find like Narsis said.

The only thing I am worry about is that if they kill one person in a room, then kill another person in another room, before we lynch the mafia in the first room.
If they do a rush on us, could we resiste it or maybe counter it.
I will give an example:
One person got killed in Room A, two people left, 1 has to be the mafia
We lynch, killed a townie, the mafia still lives and could go around killing before we could lynch him the next day.
I will bet people will run!
I don't think anyone is going to follow that list because is just sitting duck
If they all run to the same room, and a kill happens there...who are we going to lynch?

@Falzis
Sorry. I am not against gay or lesbian that just came out...

Yes...but the other person can still be considered a suspect.
Otherwise mafia would employ that method to fool the town.
Nobody is confirmed until the cop reveals his investigation or the player is dead.

If we lynch a townie instead of the mafia on N1...then of course we can assume that the mafia guy will go whereever he pleases.
But it be best if the rest of the town follows the same structured plan so as to limit the possible targets and avoid mass confusion.

I don't understand your thinking that everyone will run into the same room.
That would only serve to help the mafia.

[Narsis]

from my understanding:

there is a greater then 51% chance of halving the number of targets available to the mafia. if all three are in separate rooms, that makes 6 possible targets. if two are in a room together and one free floating that makes only 3 targets.

so the question is: is the 51% chance that there are three less chances at power roles getting targetted worth the loss of the intentions? imo no. part of this does come from my own playstyle: i never trust on power roles to be the deciding factor in a game, although i dont mind if they are.

[SinKon]

Well, I am not saying everyone would get in one room, well thats what I said but what I meant was a lot of people might get in one room. If the mafia keeps moving, we might have that situation.
For example the mafia goes to room 4, hey, everyone avoid room 4 then before the upadate, he/she moves to room 5, everybody in room 5 got out, then the mafia keeps moving until there is room where is a bunch of people.

No one is going to stay with the confirmed killer but the confirmed killer doesn't kill.
Another mafia kill in the room with lots of people.
We lynch the confirmed killer the next day
Now we have a bunch of suspects, a lot more than we had before if everyone stayed in their room.

And yeah, I believe power player(s) will be doing most of the running but hey, is fair for anyone to run too.
I mean the reason: I don't wanna die? works very well here.

@Mod, Can we just make sure this doesn't happend? Once you lock in your room, you can't change it?

[CanucksDynasty]

@Mod, Can we just make sure this doesn't happend? Once you lock in your room, you can't change it?

See below quote...you can only move once.

A map with "useful items" in different locations, sounds fun.

MOD: May we move to multiple locations in one night before the 48 hour deadline under GM rule #3 expires (ie initially move to First Class, after several people move deciding to change to another location)? and if so are we limited to a certain number of moves to prevent an "ebay sniping" strategy variant?

with 3 weeks, more or less, for the day to play out I'll wait to vote until more people have shown up.

You may only move once in the 48 hour period (Move to ONE place and that's it).

[KevinH]

I believe the mafias only has one intention- to kill us all before we lynch them

... or sit back while we lynch the good guys.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the mafia won't night-kill.

It would be much less risky to guide the townies into lynching each other.

They will want the "useful items" too.

[Narsis]

... or sit back while we lynch the good guys.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the mafia won't night-kill.

It would be much less risky to guide the townies into lynching each other.

They will want the "useful items" too.

right. which is why when the mafia dont nk, we dont lynch the following day. this forces them to act, or be caught by whatever cop may be out there.

[SinKon]

@KevinH
Your no lynch stand sounds more and more logical.
So, they wouldn't night kill because that will get themselves killed.
We will just have to wait until the cop catches up with them.
Even if there is no cop we can't lose but we can't win neither.
Then, we will have to go back to lynching again... well thats for later.

Could the mod taken out the cop all togather?
We will find out after 12 days? LOL
After he checks everyone.
Ok, I will go with your idea for now.


unvote

[junkahoolik]

not lynching for townies is as useful as having a nuke in a nuke war and not using it. i'm with narsis on this one.

[Falzis]

We lynch today and if no NK happens, we shouldn't lynch the next day.

[Electric Mango]

We lynch today and if no NK happens, we shouldn't lynch the next day.

What this man says

[Aquinas]

Right, lynching today is necessary. We need that information.

If we are going to officially go with the list strategy instead of anything else, that information is even more valuable because gaining information is not a benefit of that strategy in my opinion. However, I agree with Falzis when he says we've exhausted that discussion already. I haven't had much more to say on the subject, my position hasn't changed. I'm going to go back and skim through the last few pages again now, but I think we need to close that up and move on.

[Aquinas]

Yeah, reading that again I realize that I am tired of it. I don't find it fun to do all this number crunching at all. Theoretically, I still think we'd find the best advantage using the Hybrid Method I asserted earlier (for the same reasons). Gaining as much information as possible to make the most educated lynch vote I can is my priority. If we use the full list method which seems to be the case at the moment, thats fine I suppose. Its better than random assignments anyway.

I think we've thrown this discussion around as much as is necessary. Can we finalize a strategy and implement it at this point?

[Falzis]

I think we're waiting for EM's stock market changes report for the randomization of list placements.

[CanucksDynasty]

And moving right along...

@Everyone - any suspicions on anyone?

[SinKon]

I been thinking of KevinH's strategy after he countered my point on lynching here:

I think I answered that in this post:



The course we are taking now will allow the mafia to get into the room of their choice. I don't know if that matters, but we didn't need to allow it.

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.
Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

Then I am now convinced that he has the right strategy after he counter my point again here.

... or sit back while we lynch the good guys.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the mafia won't night-kill.

It would be much less risky to guide the townies into lynching each other.

They will want the "useful items" too.

I been think why he wasn't able to convince others.
I believe I have an answer now after reading his posts again.
He did not back up his idea with his life.
I believe in order to convince others to my view, I will have to be the first one to test it. Lead by example, so to speak. XD
I will do that for him now.

If you are all worry about the room assignment, how there will be 1 room with 4 people in it and therefore the mafia would do a kill there, and none of you wanted to risk being there. I have a proposal.

I will put my life on the line!
I will back up with my belief with my life!
I will go to that room with 4 people with KevinH, Sir Jesus and one brave or unlucky volunteer.

If anyone gets kill there, you could exterminate the room with me in it.
I believe in KevinH idea that the mafia will not do a night kill because that will get themselves lynched!

There is one conditon. When I get kill in that room, I WANT Sir Jesus TO BE LYNCHED FIRST!
The reason why I want him lynched first is that I believe if I get kill then he is the one who would've done it.

1) He voted no lynch when almost everyone believed that lynching is good for the town,

2) He gave the formula there that shows there is more than 51% chance the two mafia would end up in the same room.
(That information by itself can not harm people, but how it will be used will kill us all!, also he could deny that he suggested killing the rest of the room after we lynch the mafia in that room. Just like what he is doing now. He is claiming that is just a simple "mathematics analysis")

3) When I confronted him on two occansions, he did not give his reason is like he doesn't know why is good.

So I believe he gets on the side that would get us killed and therfore a mafia.
However, I can't be sure, maybe he just didn't feel like answering me or something.
If I get killed, then we will be sure.

Regardless, KevinH idea will help us win. Even if there is no cop, we can't lose, then we will really have to worry about when the plane gonna crash. XD

Now you have nothing to worry about. Since the other rooms only have 3 people in each, if one gets kill, there are only two suspects.

Still not convinced?
How about this, instead of getting lucky, we use the person who would be lynched as a bait?

[SinKon]

vote: no lynch

[Sir Jesus]

I will put my life on the line!
I will back up with my belief with my life!
I will go to that room with 4 people with KevinH, Sir Jesus and one brave or unlucky volunteer.

Yeah ..... this is already starting to look like a bad idea.

"Let's have a totally random list that has fixed variables and gives mafia members no choice in their location. Then let's take that same list, and rearrange it so that I can determine who I'm in a room with, but no one else. Why? Because KevinH is using sound logic and I have a death wish on SJ because he took the time to do a solid analysis for the town. That way I can pursue my personal vendetta only at the cost of changing the entire set of variables and circumstances."

SinKon wants to eliminate me, mostly based on the arguments that:
- I provided very useful information to the town's decision making
- I voted "No Lynch"

Both of these reasons are awful. By the way, did anyone notice how he all of a sudden changed his mind when the bandwagon switched directions?

If anyone gets kill there, you could exterminate the room with me in it.

We should be looking to exterminate the people in any room with a warm corpse.

There is one conditon. When I get kill in that room, I WANT Sir Jesus TO BE LYNCHED FIRST!
The reason why I want him lynched first is that I believe if I get kill then he is the one who would've done it.

1) He voted no lynch when almost everyone believed that lynching is good for the town,

2) He gave the formula there that shows there is more than 51% chance the two mafia would end up in the same room.
(That information by itself can not harm people, but how it will be used will kill us all!, also he could deny that he suggested killing the rest of the room after we lynch the mafia in that room. Just like what he is doing now. He is claiming that is just a simple "mathematics analysis")

3) When I confronted him on two occansions, he did not give his reason is like he doesn't know why is good.

Again, these are totally baseless accusations. Just because "everyone believes" something differently from me, does not mean that I am of an anti-town faction. In fact, it symbolizes that I am willing to stand up for what I believe is right for the town, even at the cost of receiving votes. However a mafia member would act just like you, always siding with the mob so you can do your dirty work at night.

I did an analysis for the town to use as evidence in their arguments. Why would an anti-town faction want to give true statistics on a situation, when they could bias it to their advantage? I could have agreed with any of the figures presented...

You confronted me and said that I was inferring something .... which is just silly. My post contained a short joke at the top, and a solid mathematical analysis + proof. There was zero opinion in that post.

What do I infer from the information I derived? That a rigid/random placement is beneficial to the town because there is a good chance they will get stuck with one another, limiting their kill abilities. Of course there are several reasons to support the random list that I will not repeat (again, and again).

So I believe he gets on the side that would get us killed and therfore a mafia.
However, I can't be sure, maybe he just didn't feel like answering me or something.
If I get killed, then we will be sure.

We can be sure that someone is trying to frame me, if you are killed.

Regardless, KevinH idea will help us win. Even if there is no cop, we can't lose, then we will really have to worry about when the plane gonna crash. XD

Now you have nothing to worry about. Since the other rooms only have 3 people in each, if one gets kill, there are only two suspects.

Still not convinced?
How about this, instead of getting lucky, we use the person who would be lynched as a bait?

Bait? What are you talking about? How can we use someone as bait, when they themselves could be the killer!?!?!?!?!?!???!?!?

SFOS: SinKon

*sigh* This is tiresome.



Regarding the random placement, we should not have EM derive our positioning until we come to a lynch or no-lynch or deadline. Why?

Because who the mafia votes for will be EXTREMELY influenced by the positioning within the plane. If I'm mafia and we occupy rooms 2, 3, and 4, we would obviously try to lynch someone in room 1.

EM, you should tell us our assignments either:
- One day before deadline,
- L-1 / NL-1

[Aquinas]

I don't have any suspicions to speak of yet. A suspicions being someone I suspect to be scum.

However, I don't much trust Sinkon being mindful of Sir Jesus' prior post to this (which is to long to justify a quote, just scroll up) and

Yeah.......

unvote
Vote: SinKon



We should lynch whoever brought this up? Are we supposed to punish every single person whose views oppose yours, even if they are contributing new concepts? This is obviously town-like behavior. /sarcasm

You are giving me a chance to explain myself? You have already voted for me, can't play that card now. However, the last post did not carry a single letter of intention or opinion. It was simply a mathematical analysis, meant for you to infer whatever you wish.


Can we please just lynch this guy? He has already admitted he would lynch a townie, for providing an alternative viewpoint and a mathematical analysis. We cannot have people that just want to kill townies...

I don't necessarily suspect him to be scum just yet however. I believe him to be actively working to forward a strategy just like everyone else. Although he may be misguided and statements like "I'd lynch a townie anyway" deeply concern me. At this point:

FOS: SinKon

This is where my vote would go if I was forced into a vote at this time (thankfully we aren't). Furthermore, if it comes down to a decision between SinKon, Sir Jesus (and KevinH, has there been some implication of him as well?) and there is no further development besides a similar back and forth, I'd be voting SinKon to be lynched.