1469 replies to this topic

[Aquinas]

EBWOP

FOS: SinKon

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (1): CanucksDynasty
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore
SinKon (1): Sir Jesus

No Lynch (1): SinKon

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:44 PM.

[SinKon]

Hey, everyone else beside me, sir jesus and KevinH could follow the random list and be placed into a room. The last person will be placed with us.

Use the "about to be lynched person" as bait, is better then just lynching him/her because you don't know if he is a mafia or not. Just like me and Sir Jesus, even though I believe very storngly that he is a mafia, I don't know if he is a maifa or not.

Yeah, I know I am risking lynching because of this no lynch stand that I am taking now and that I pissed off Sir Jesus so it becomes understandable that even if he is going to be one of those people now trying to lynch me he has a perfect reason since I called for blood first.

I am taking the same heat as KevinH right now and sir jesus did.
There are 3 things KevinH comments that influence me the most.

1) The mafia want us to lynch each other because is their best chance.
2) They wouldn't do night kill, because that will expose them.
3) We can't lose if we just wait a little longer.

If the concern before was who gets to be place in the room with 4 people, I have the solution.
I don't see why not no lynch right now. Before I think it would be best if we strike first but now there is high chance that the mafia wouldn't even do a night kill.
Lets not forget, there could be a cop too.

If you have anything to counter that, say it.

[CanucksDynasty]

@SinKon - As mentioned in earlier posts...the reason for a lynch is to get voting patterns (useful in later rounds) and to get max 3 people into 4 rooms. Such that if a nightkill were to happen...we would have 50% chance to lynch mafia. If no nightkill happens...then we can avoid a lynch on D2 (provided we are still in the plane) to allow the cop to do another investigation. If we go with a no lynch...then if nightkill happens...we would have 3 suspects instead of 2. The town doesn't necessarily need to lynch on D2. Thus the status quo remain.

This could be a viable option.
Anyone else has thoughts on this?

The only problem I see is that in the previous plane crash game ... there was X days and we were rescued.
The mafia and town did not win.
Only the survivor won (whose win condition was to be alive at the end game).

[CanucksDynasty]

MOD - any word on crazyemolad? he hasn't posted in ages

Send me a PM and remind me to get prod checks done.
I have very little time tonight.

Edited by molestargazer, 05 November 2009 - 08:14 PM.

[SinKon]

3 suspects in the same room and we begin lynching or 2 suspect in the same room and we begin lynching.
Either one of these guarantee one mafia kills which why KevinH point is so powerful.
The mafia would risk it, I believe.

[SinKon]

Sorry, wouldn't risk it. LOL
Even if they do, once we get a mafia, we still have more townies!

[SinKon]

How many days were they rescued?
Were there a cop, how could the mafias lasted so long?

I mean, if there were a cop and the Mafia can't do night kill without getting caught then they should've been dropping like flies. What happend over there?

[CanucksDynasty]

No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2...

D1 - no lynch
N1 - nk in room with 4 people (3 suspects = 2 townies + mafia #1) = 1 dead townie
D2 - no lynch
N2 - nk in room with 3 people (2 suspects...I presume it'll be the same group) = 1 dead townie
D3 - mis-lynch = 1 dead townie
N3 - nk from mafia #1 = 1 dead townie
D4 - lynch mafia #1 = 1 dead mafia
N4 - nk from mafia #2 = 1 dead townie
D5 - ?

So at the beginning of D5 ... we get 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia.

Same result as lynching on D1 but it takes one extra day (ie. D5 instead of D4).

[CanucksDynasty]

How many days were they rescued?
Were there a cop, how could the mafias lasted so long?

I mean, if there were a cop and the Mafia can't do night kill without getting caught then they should've been dropping like flies. What happend over there?

I was a replacement player so I don't remember all the details.
There were 2 planes that crashed onto an island.
And there was no rooms (ie. 1-9).
After so many days...everyone was rescued.
Thus only the "survivor" won cuz he met his win condition.
The mafia lost cuz they didn't eliminate everyone else.
The town lost cuz they didn't eliminate mafia.

This game has a totally different setup.
But I can assume that the plane will crash and after X days...we'll be rescued.

[Kaziocore]

when did it crash in the previous game?

[SinKon]

Even though I am for no lynch right now and that this No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2 is very good to make the point that we shouldn't lynch until the mafia does a kill, because

1) we give the cop one extra day to investigate and
2) The number of suspects is greatly reduced compare to a day one random lynch.
3) Is the same number of dead townies

I want to tell you what we will be missing.
We will miss the first strike, which have 1 out of 13 chances of lynching a mafia.

So compare these two options and see what we will gain and lose then make your decision.

Is your decision.
If KevinH posted like that I am sure we would've done no lynch a long time ago but is still your choice.

Do you like a 1/13 chance or 1/3 chance of lynching a mafia?

Also, like to point out that only me, KevinH, Sir Jesus, and one other will be at the greatest risk of getting kill first.
I hope you all appreciate our sacrifice if we do get kill. We deserve a medal!
I am betting the mafia wouldn't not take such a risk. Hey, I am a high-roller. XD

Lets not forget the medal even if we don't die when we win. We like the bravest townies award.
Still, if I die, I want Sir Jesus to get lynch. I am still very suspicious of him.
Thank you.

[Narsis]

when did it crash in the previous game?

sigh. Night 1 i believe. however, i distinctly remember mole saying to me before the game started that we wouldn't be rescued like in the first game.

also in the first game, there was two planes not one so they kinda had to crash to get everyone together. this game is entirely different.


anyway...

@Sinkon:

you seem to forget:

1) if there are 4 mafia and they nk every night, they could win by D4/5, assuming we myslynch on Days 2-4. if we do lynch, then even if there are 4 mafia, they cannot win.

2) if they dont nk, which is a likely scenario but only if they all end up in 3 person rooms, then the town will win regardless of whether there are 10 of us or 9 of us.

3) a lynch strategy doesnt mean lynch every day. it means lynch every day, starting at Day 1, but only if the mafia nk'd the night before, except on Day 1 which there is a lynch regardless.

4) should we lose the cop early in the game and then the mafia stops nk'ing we need the additional info from a lynch. without it, it becomes quite a bit more difficult to find the mafia.

5) if the plane crashes we also will need the information.

6) it's not a matter of 1/13 vs 1/3. if it was then obviously a no lynch would be best. it's a 1/13 vs a 0/13 and a 1/2 vs a 1/3. i'll take the 1/13 and 1/2 over the 0/13 and 1/3 simply due to the better odds.

[CanucksDynasty]

ugh....19 pages of more rambling

MOD: Can I suicide if it appears that a no lynch will occur on D1?

No.

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:45 PM.

[SinKon]

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining
N1: 9/3
D2: 8/3
N2: 7/3
D3: 6/3
N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win
D4: 5/2
N4: 4/2
D5: 4/1
N5: 3/1
D6: 3/0 <--- town win

Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias
No lynch (9 townies/4 mafias)
Night 1: kill happend in room with 4 people (3 suspects in room A)

Day 2: 8 townies/ 4 mafias
mislynch (7 townies/ 4 mafias)
Night 2: kill happend in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room B, 2 suspects in room A)

Day 3: 6 townies/4 mafias
mislynch (5 townies/4 mafias)
Night 3 (4 townies and 4 mafais)



Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias
mis lynch (8 townies/ 4 mafia)
Night 1: kill happens in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room AA)

Day 2: (7 townies/ 4 mafia)
mis lynch (6 townies/4 mafia) (1 mafia left)
Night 2: (5 townies/ 4 mafia)

Day 3: (5 townies/4 mafia)
lynch mafia (5 townies/ 3 mafia)
Night 3: kill happens in a room with 3 people (4 townies/ 3 mafia) (2suspects in room BB)

Day 4: (4 townies/ 3 mafia)
mislynch (3 townies/ 3 mafia)

Ok, I have to think this over again but Narsis, we still can lose with lynching, but that would give us one more mis-lynch.
A better option?

Wait a miunte, why don't ask mole how many mafia are there?
Mod, how many mafias are here?

[CanucksDynasty]

Wait a miunte, why don't ask mole how many mafia are there?
Mod, how many mafias are here?

Cuz he won't tell you.
It's part of the game to figure things out.

[SinKon]

But if we don't know how many mafias are there then how do we know if we lynched a mafia or a townie?

When someone dies, their role is revealed.

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 03:45 PM.

[Narsis]

Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias
No lynch (9 townies/4 mafias)
Night 1: kill happend in room with 4 people (3 suspects in room A)

Day 2: 8 townies/ 4 mafias
mislynch (7 townies/ 4 mafias)
Night 2: kill happend in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room B, 2 suspects in room A)

Day 3: 6 townies/4 mafias
mislynch (5 townies/4 mafias)
Night 3 (4 townies and 4 mafais)



Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias
mis lynch (8 townies/ 4 mafia)
Night 1: kill happens in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room AA)

Day 2: (7 townies/ 4 mafia)
mis lynch (6 townies/4 mafia) (1 mafia left)
Night 2: (5 townies/ 4 mafia)

Day 3: (5 townies/4 mafia)
lynch mafia (5 townies/ 3 mafia)
Night 3: kill happens in a room with 3 people (4 townies/ 3 mafia) (2suspects in room BB)

Day 4: (4 townies/ 3 mafia)
mislynch (3 townies/ 3 mafia)

Ok, I have to think this over again but Narsis, we still can lose with lynching, but that would give us one more mis-lynch.
A better option?

Wait a miunte, why don't ask mole how many mafia are there?
Mod, how many mafias are here?

this is correct. however, it is impossible for us to myslynch on D4 and beyond. why? because we will be split into only 2 person rooms during the night. that means that if mafia nk at all then we know 100% who is mafia.

[SinKon]

You are right.
Oh. I am going to take a beating here... ~.~

unvote: no lynch
vote: Sir Jesus

[CanucksDynasty]

But if we don't know how many mafias are there then how do we know if we lynched a mafia or a townie?

We only find out once they are dead.

For example...
Day 1 lynched Sinkon.
"The mob gathers a rope and hangs Sinkon. You find nothing on him. Sinkon = townie".

Look at past games in this forum and you'll see what I mean.

[CanucksDynasty]

You are right.
Oh. I am going to take a beating here... ~.~

unvote: no lynch
vote: Sir Jesus

Yeah...you're going to take a beating...



unvote
Vote: SinKon




While I don't agree with KevinH and SJ no lynch stance...somehow their recent posts makes me less suspicious of them.

I did have suspicions about AoD before he asked for a replacement.
He posted very little and didn't contribute much.
Now SinKon has replaced him.
And he comes out guns blazing on SJ, flops between no lynch and lynch, and back to SJ.
Not sure what to think about that.

Normally I'd give newbies a free pass on D1.
So they don't get turned off from the game.

But my gut is telling me different.
I get the feeling that SinKon may be trying a bit too hard.
Maybe it's his first game and all.
I don't know.