1469 replies to this topic

[CanucksDynasty]

I think EM summed it up pretty nicely. I found myself skimming over the recent posts as well. The problem is not so much that Sinkon posts a lot or that his posts are lengthy. The problem is that his posts are not very coherent and that in general they are based on debatable 'facts'. For example his theory that Sir Jesus cannot be the cop because he voted no lynch did not make much sense to me. Why would the cop be any less likely to vote no lynch than any of the other players? Sure, ignoring WIFOM and the implication of voting no lynch for a moment, I could see that a no lynch is in favor of the mafia and that the mafia players would, theoretically, thus be more likely to vote no lynch. However, why would a cop be less likely to vote no lynch than a regular townie?

Anyway, because he is new, I had decided to just ignore him and give him a few days. I still can't say I am convinced he is scum. I could see a new player getting excited and jumping on every piece of evidence he thinks he can find. I can also understand that a new player may come to certain conclusions that the more experienced players know are not necessarily true. However, I have no other suspects and, therefore, I wouldn't mind lynching him. If nothing else, it would increase my motivation for reading all posts again and it would get us down to the desirable 12 players for 4 rooms.

What I found remarkable is people claiming they were already suspicious of AoD. The only thing I remember about AoD is that he was inactive. Of course, lurking is a known mafia tactic. But he did ask to be replaced. Seeing how AoD had to ask for a replacement because he didn't have enough time, I can't see how we can hold the previous inactivity of AoD against Sinkon. I, therefore, find the people quoting previous suspicions of AoD more suspicious. It offers an easy way to jump on/support the bandwagon without offering any real evidence.

AoD inactivity is partly to blame as well as SinKon posting all over the place that draws my suspicion.
I don't see why we can't use AoD's past behaviour as part of our assessment of SinKon.
From what you said...IF AoD did something obviously scummy...then we can't vote on his replacement?

SinKon (or anyone else for that matter) lynch will have served a purpose.
IF SinKon turns up townie...then you have a pool of suspects to work with (SJ, CD, EM, and Aquinas).
IF SinKon turns up mafia...that pretty much clears up those who voted for him (not 100% cuz of bussing but close enough).

What I find interesting is that you interrupted a possible lynching (or mis-lynching) that may halt further bandwagoners from voting.
Why are you so interested in protecting SinKon?
Is it because he is a new player?

Nothing said has dissuaded me to change my vote.
It'll stay on SinKon until I find someone else.

VOTE COUNT
SinKon (4): Sir Jesus, CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango, Aquinas
KevinH (1): Firkked
Sir Jesus (1): SinKon
crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

Not Voting (6): Narsis, Junkahoolik, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Martino

Edited by molestargazer, 06 November 2009 - 04:31 PM.

[CanucksDynasty]

That's why I rather have crazyemolad lynched.

I am opened to that suggestion.
Although it's probably most likely a townie role.
The only benefit would be that it would avoid having to wait for a replacement role.
And reduces the number to 12 players (as intended to get into 3 people per room).

The downside to that would be that the vote count would be useless.

[Falzis]

That's why I rather have crazyemolad lynched.

If he doesn't get back on time or replaced, I'm also amenable to lynching him

Sinkon is very hard to read in terms of his lengthy posts so I must admit I also skip some of the recent posts. I feel he has a tendency to beat around the bush which makes it hard for me to appreciate his posts. But nonetheless, I appreciate his activity and remember the time when I was also an eager beaver in my first game so I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt in terms of the newbie card. Although I can't say if there is really anything scummy in his posts since again, I skipped the most recent ones. >.< (sorry!)

EM, when's the result of your thingy?

[Martino]

AoD inactivity is partly to blame as well as SinKon posting all over the place that draws my suspicion.
I don't see why we can't use AoD's past behaviour as part of our assessment of SinKon.
From what you said...IF AoD did something obviously scummy...then we can't vote on his replacement?

That was not what I said. You can, obviously, hold SinKon accountable for any scummy moves by AoD. However, the reason for your suspicions of AoD were his low activity. However, we later found out that AoD was not inactive because he wanted to lay low, but because he did not have enough time(he asked to be replaced). I don't think it is scummy if your activity is low because you do not have enough time. Therefore, I fail to see how you can blame AoD's lack of activity on SinKon.

SinKon (or anyone else for that matter) lynch will have served a purpose.
IF SinKon turns up townie...then you have a pool of suspects to work with (SJ, CD, EM, and Aquinas).
IF SinKon turns up mafia...that pretty much clears up those who voted for him (not 100% cuz of bussing but close enough).

There is more to lynching than someone turning up townie/scum. For example, if you have a good reason to vote, I will not blame you. Not even if you lynch a townie. However, someone giving a poor reason for his vote or none at all and just jumping on the bandwagon will get flack.

What I find interesting is that you interrupted a possible lynching (or mis-lynching) that may halt further bandwagoners from voting.
Why are you so interested in protecting SinKon?
Is it because he is a new player?

I do not think I interrupted a possible lynch as he already has enough votes for a deadline lynch and at the moment it does not look like there are any other suspects. Anyway, my intention was not so much to defend him as to get people to give it some more thought. I merely stated that I am not convinced that he is scum. Would you have prefered me to just keep quiet and watch a few other people jump on the bangwagon without giving it much thought? The way that bandwagon was going I got the feeling that people were happy to lynch anyone that was not themselves. It is not like SinKon suddenly changed his poststyle in the last two pages. He has been like this since he replaced AoD. So why do four people suddenly feel the need to vote for SinKon on the same day? I think being annoyed with his poststyle had more to do with that than real suspicions he was scum.

Either way, more discussion before his lynch is always to be preferred over a quicklynch. What exactly would we have gained if three others had quickly jumped on the bandwagon and lynched him?

[molestargazer]

Crazyemolad has requested replacement.
I have no more replacements lined up, so get hunting!

[CanucksDynasty]

Either way, more discussion before his lynch is always to be preferred over a quicklynch. What exactly would we have gained if three others had quickly jumped on the bandwagon and lynched him?

Exactly what I would have hoped for. Suspicions on the those that voted for him. You would have had 7 suspects to work with. Questioned why these people had voted the way they voted. Questioned their motives and reasoning. Perhaps catch a mafia that looked for an easy lynch. With 7 suspects...I'm sure at least one of them would have been mafia.

Now with just 4 suspects, maybe one is mafia but it could be that all of them (yeah...me too) are townies.

[CanucksDynasty]

Weekend here.
Posting 48hr absence notice.
Will check in periodically to see what's up.

CD.

[junkahoolik]

mn... i kind'a lost interest in this game already... if d1 holds so much spamming and lengthy posts in and of itself i shiver to think about the next days.

[KevinH]

By that logic, everyone voting for a lynch has a higher probability of being the cop than those that voting no lynch. It would be statistically better for us to lynch you or Sir Jesus then right?

Proposition: Given that I did not vote to lynch and I am a townie, the evidence would support that I am not the cop.

Here's another one:
Given that a vote to lynch was made, the evidence would support that the voter is either a cop or a scum.
Corollary: The likelihood of a voter being a scum is 3 times that of being a cop.

The proof is left as an exercise for the reader.

[junkahoolik]

not really... no lynching is useless for the good mafia players. so they will lynch regardless if they are just simple townies just for the info. information in the hands of those who know what to do with it is a dangerous tool.

[Firkked]

not really... no lynching is useless for the good mafia players. so they will lynch regardless if they are just simple townies just for the info. information in the hands of those who know what to do with it is a dangerous tool.

Agreed

[Narsis]

Proposition: Given that I did not vote to lynch and I am a townie, the evidence would support that I am not the cop.

Here's another one:
Given that a vote to lynch was made, the evidence would support that the voter is either a cop or a scum.
Corollary: The likelihood of a voter being a scum is 3 times that of being a cop.

The proof is left as an exercise for the reader.

that is false logic.

it's like saying:

Cats are mammals.
Apes are mammals.
Apes don't have tails.
Therefore cats don't have tails.

anyone that has seen a cat can obviously prove otherwise.

so you are saying:

Mafia want a lynch.
Cops want a lynch.
We held a vote on whether to lynch or not.
Therefore, anyone that votes pro-lynch must be either mafia or a cop.

and as anyone that has played mafia before knows, townies are often pro-lynch.

[Electric Mango]

EM, when's the result of your thingy?

I took the top 12 most active stocks on the NYSE.

The 1st most active I assigned to player 1, the 2nd most active I assigned to player 2, etc.

On the end of business Monday the 9th I will do another screen shot.

The top 3 biggest gainers will be in room 1

Next 3 in room 4

Next 3 in room 7

Bottom 3 in room 8

Tie breaker will go to the person highest on the sign up sheet.

Also we must be sure that all players are active during the 48 hours after the lynch. If crazymolad is still inactive he will be randomly assigned a room number. This will mess up our strategy because he has roughly a 40% chance of putting a room count to 4 people or a 50% going into an unassigned room alone. This would be the worst case scenario because scum would nk him and we would not know which room the killer came from.

If crazymolad has not been replaced when the dead line approaches we must lynch him above all others.


MOD: Can you send out some invites to former mafia players like vgmaster etc?

[Martino]

Exactly what I would have hoped for. Suspicions on the those that voted for him. You would have had 7 suspects to work with. Questioned why these people had voted the way they voted. Questioned their motives and reasoning. Perhaps catch a mafia that looked for an easy lynch. With 7 suspects...I'm sure at least one of them would have been mafia.

Do you then think it is worth sacrificing a townie to know that at least one of seven players is mafia? I don't think so: 1 in 7 is worse than 3 in 13, so we're not exactly making any progress in this way. Of course, more than one may be mafia, but we wouldn't know that for certain. Also, we already have four people of who I suspect a few were looking for an easy lynch. Why are you so against questioning them now? Why would you have prefered me to wait until after we would have lynched him?

[Falzis]

Also we must be sure that all players are active during the 48 hours after the lynch. If crazymolad is still inactive he will be randomly assigned a room number. This will mess up our strategy because he has roughly a 40% chance of putting a room count to 4 people or a 50% going into an unassigned room alone. This would be the worst case scenario because scum would nk him and we would not know which room the killer came from.

If crazymolad has not been replaced when the dead line approaches we must lynch him above all others.
[b]

Oh yeah that would really mess things up. If no replacement is seen coming, I am really now leaning towards lynching crazy.

[CanucksDynasty]

Do you then think it is worth sacrificing a townie to know that at least one of seven players is mafia? I don't think so: 1 in 7 is worse than 3 in 13, so we're not exactly making any progress in this way. Of course, more than one may be mafia, but we wouldn't know that for certain. Also, we already have four people of who I suspect a few were looking for an easy lynch. Why are you so against questioning them now? Why would you have prefered me to wait until after we would have lynched him?

I don't have a problem with you questioning any of them. And I don't really care if it was before or after the lynch. What I wanted was to see how many more would have voted. It is most likely that no one would have placed that 7th vote (very rare in all the games I've seen and played for a D1 majority lynch).

Well you have your 4 suspects...ask your questions then.

I still think SinKon is a viable lynch target right now.
You even posted an out clause that he was also a good suspect as any.

[KevinH]

that is false logic.
...
and as anyone that has played mafia before knows, townies are often pro-lynch.

I have to explain my humor again.

Proposition: Given that I did not vote to lynch and I am a townie, the evidence would support that I am not the cop.

Humor intended by the statement that it's given that I'm a townie. Of course I'd say that.

Given that a vote to lynch was made, the evidence would support that the voter is either a cop or a scum.

Obviously, many well-intentioned townies vote to lynch.

Corollary: The likelihood of a voter being a scum is 3 times that of being a cop.

This is just based on assumptions that there are 3 scum and 1 cop. Either assumption could be false.

[Narsis]

I have to explain my humor again.

it didnt really seem as humor to me.

[Aquinas]

MOD: If the day ends with an inactive player are they allowed to camp without being randomly assigned to a room? They are, after all, inactive so I want to make sure of the scenario in that case before we assume a random placement is the case.

No. Anyone who doesnt choose a room will be randomly assigned.

Edited by molestargazer, 07 November 2009 - 06:22 PM.

[CanucksDynasty]

Also we must be sure that all players are active during the 48 hours after the lynch. If crazymolad is still inactive he will be randomly assigned a room number. This will mess up our strategy because he has roughly a 40% chance of putting a room count to 4 people or a 50% going into an unassigned room alone. This would be the worst case scenario because scum would nk him and we would not know which room the killer came from.

If crazymolad has not been replaced when the dead line approaches we must lynch him above all others.


MOD: Can you send out some invites to former mafia players like vgmaster etc?

Agreed.
Thanks to EM for bringing it up to our attention.
I guess I was right in labelling you as a townie.