1469 replies to this topic

[CanucksDynasty]

Point taken, but that's only one of the many townies that would not be the cop. Alternatively, the mafia get lucky and kill the cop and all the previous investigations are lost to the grave.

But in your post...you said some should do it and not everyone.
There are probably 9 townies left (with 3 mafia).

IF that is the case...say only 6 people posts.
As EM suggested...it's most likely that the cop investigated a townie.
Then those posting that would indicate that one of them is a cop.
That's 1 in 6.
IF a couple of mafia also post then those odds are reduced to 1 in 4.
And if someone claimed a mafia was townie...then it's reduced even further to 1 in 3.

IF cop has already found a mafia...I don't see why he wouldn't share that info.
It would avoid a mis-lynch.
Room movements seemed to be removed, thus enabling a doc to protect the cop.

VOTE COUNT
junkahoolik (2): Martino, Firkked
KevinH (1): Electric Mango


Not Voting (9): Narsis, Junkahoolik, KevinH, Sir Jesus, angel of doom, Falzis, Kaziocore, Aquinas, CanucksDynasty

With 12 alive, 7 is needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 24 November 2009 - 06:01 PM.

[Aquinas]

a basic idea in scum hunting is lynch all those who lie. townies don't need to lie. besides, if a townie lies it won't be helpful for the town because it will create confusion in the long run. so usually, when there are 2 cop claims, one of them is lying and the lier is mafia. of course that depends on the settings of the game. for instance, if there is 1 sane cop and a cop or more that can't investigate well (receives the answers to investigations to be all mafia or all townie or all the opposite of the players affiliation) then they are all telling the truth and no need to lynch them. the real problem is that you can only find out someone's true identity if you lynch him.

nobody claimed cop yet.

So, you are okay with a lynch when there are opposing cop claims but not at this point in the game? It confuses me when your strategy now is follow the cop but you'd throw that up to a fifty fifty chance of lynching a cop in the case of a counterclaim. If you got it right and lynched the scum counterclaim you'd surely have a dead townie cop in the morning anyway.

[Aquinas]

But in your post...you said some should do it and not everyone.
There are probably 9 townies left (with 3 mafia).

IF that is the case...say only 6 people posts.
As EM suggested...it's most likely that the cop investigated a townie.
Then those posting that would indicate that one of them is a cop.
That's 1 in 6.
IF a couple of mafia also post then those odds are reduced to 1 in 4.
And if someone claimed a mafia was townie...then it's reduced even further to 1 in 3.

IF cop has already found a mafia...I don't see why he wouldn't share that info.
It would avoid a mis-lynch.
Room movements seemed to be removed, thus enabling a doc to protect the cop.

Assuming there is a doctor...

[CanucksDynasty]

Follow up to KevinH here...I think that is a possible scenario but I don't see where that is coming from. Why would we be able to assume that?

To clarify something Junkahoolik said, that I may be the cop because I dismissed suspicion of SinKon: that was on the qualifier that he posted less random nonsense during Day 2 which isn't that case thus far, clearly. Still I don't find it to be malicious or purposefully detracting from the town goals and I'm hoping to let him slide. I'd like to hear more from Junkahoolik and KevinH still about there reasoning for a no lynch strategy. I think its pretty obvious Night 2 will come with a night kill. We need to be proactive otherwise we end up with two dead townies on Day 3 without any townie action. Will be end up with three dead townies if we lynch, the odds say, "yes". However, we're not playing the odds. KevinH if you are truly not convinced of anyone's scumminess at the end of the day vote no lynch but, don't throw it off the table just yet. Do you have anyone in mind that could be mafia at this point? Who do you think we should be looking at more closely? I'll offer the same questions to Junkahoolik but, he seems more assertive about making sure we don't lynch which makes me a little more suspicious of him.

FOS: Junkahoolik

Is that question directed to me?

The assumption is that in a 13 player game there will be approximately 3 mafia (with power-roles added to balance the game out). I don't know if a SK was added or not so I have not included a SK in my assumption. Also...I'm also assuming there is doc as well as a cop.

IF there are 3 mafia (and everyone has voted), I seriously doubt that all 3 mafia had voted for the same person. It is also unlikely that all 3 mafia voted for SinKon cuz if he happened to be lynched and turned up townie...all 3 mafia would have suspicion casted upon them. Remember that SinKon had the most votes prior to crazyemolad getting the votes. Probably (I am assuming) 1 mafia voted for SinKon (even if he might be mafia) or Falzis (junkahoolic voted for him). So that leaves 2 mafia that voted for crazyemolad.

That's my assumption.

IF I am correct then 2 out of 7 voted for crazyemolad. And that's where I'll start my scum-hunting.

[KevinH]

KevinH if you are truly not convinced of anyone's scumminess at the end of the day vote no lynch but, don't throw it off the table just yet. Do you have anyone in mind that could be mafia at this point?

I don't have any really strong feelings.
There's an OMGUS on EM.

CD is giving bad advice:

But in your post...you said some should do it and not everyone.
...
IF cop has already found a mafia...I don't see why he wouldn't share that info.
It would avoid a mis-lynch.
Room movements seemed to be removed, thus enabling a doc to protect the cop.

Assuming there is a doctor...

There's no guarantee that there's a doc or that the doc could protect the cop. The cop should definitely not role-claim just because he finds a scum.

5. Players may only carry out night actions on players they in the same area as.
5-1. Any players with night powers may move ONE area adjacent to the one they chose to carry out their actions. This is done by PMing their move with their action. RULE 5-1 HAS BEEN REMOVED.

Rule 5-1 has been removed but there is no mention of Rule 5 being removed.
Mod: Is it still true that "Players may only carry out night actions on players they in the same area as." (sic)?
Yes.

Edited by molestargazer, 23 November 2009 - 08:28 PM.

[KevinH]

The assumption is that in a 13 player game there will be approximately 3 mafia
...
IF I am correct then 2 out of 7 voted for crazyemolad. And that's where I'll start my scum-hunting.

That's pretty weak logic.

Here's an alternative:

At the point it became apparent that crazyemolad was going to be lynched, the mafia would not have wanted to bandwagon. Only 1 of the first 4 was probably scum and the last 3 were misguided townies.
Of the remaining 5 that didn't vote for crazyemolad, 2 must be scum.

I don't put faith in the alternative I presented any more than the original case.

[KevinH]

While I'm on a roll ...

Since the lynch of crazyemolad was in the best interest of the town at the time, none of the mafia would want that to happen. The 3 mafia votes would be among the last 3 on crazyemolad or the 5 that didn't vote for him.

[CanucksDynasty]

So you're assuming there is a cop but no doc???

[CanucksDynasty]

That's pretty weak logic.

Here's an alternative:

At the point it became apparent that crazyemolad was going to be lynched, the mafia would not have wanted to bandwagon. Only 1 of the first 4 was probably scum and the last 3 were misguided townies.
Of the remaining 5 that didn't vote for crazyemolad, 2 must be scum.

I don't put faith in the alternative I presented any more than the original case.

So you're assuming only 1 mafia voted for crazy and 2 mafia voted for Sinkon/Falzis???

[CanucksDynasty]

While I'm on a roll ...

Since the lynch of crazyemolad was in the best interest of the town at the time, none of the mafia would want that to happen. The 3 mafia votes would be among the last 3 on crazyemolad or the 5 that didn't vote for him.

It's a possibility.
It's also a possibility that the mafia knew that this was the best course for townie and voted early to seem townie-like.
See what I did there??

Regardless...my posts are my assumptions.
If you think differently...then by all means suggest something other than no lynch.
Cuz as many have stated...a no lynch is not the way to go as we will undoubtedly see a nk this time around.

[Electric Mango]

To further my reasons for my vote on KevinH:

Day 1 he suggested that everyone spread out to different rooms. If we had followed that strategy, the mafia would have killed one of us Night 1.

Day 2 he thinks we should no lynch - a bad strategy since it's all but certain that mafia will start their night killing. This also goes against his previous style of play where he would vote no lynch on day 1 but push for a lynch on day 2.

Day 2 he also suggested that some of us drop clues on who we think is guilty/innocent so that the cop can give us information without exposing himself. As CD has pointed out, this is a bad strategy that will only help the mafia narrow down who is/is not the cop.

So to sum it all up:

Anti town strategy Day 1
Anti town strategy Day 2
Not following his normal style of play

[Electric Mango]

There's an OMGUS on EM.

I'd like more clarification on this as well because I don't see it.

[Firkked]

Every time I start to go against my gut feeling something turns up.

EM makes good points against KevinH, additionally I see no OMGUS.

I disagree that the results of D1 lynch favored anyone but the mod - The town lost one of it's own and the mafia was under no pressure to NK with a townie down. The mod didn't have to find a replacement for an inactive player.

[CanucksDynasty]

There are mafia amongst us. They can influence our lynch. They could win that way. Especially if there's not a cop.

I'm willing to assume that there is a cop and that the mafia had a night-kill option but didn't use it for fear of exposing themselves. Meanwhile, the cop learned something about somebody. I'm looking to follow....

You want to follow the cop.

I believe Falzis is townie-aligned.

If I get night-killed and am shown to be a cop, then the surviving townies can look back to this post and know the results of my investigation.

If I am night-killed and am shown to be the vanilla townie that I am, then the surviving townies can disregard.

I suggest some of us make similar posts like this so the cop can blend in. Everyone shouldn't do it in case the cop got a guilty result but doesn't want to role-claim just now.

You suggest a way for cop to share his info if he investigated a townie.

Point taken, but that's only one of the many townies that would not be the cop. Alternatively, the mafia get lucky and kill the cop and all the previous investigations are lost to the grave.

You say info gets lost if mafia gets lucky.

There's no guarantee that there's a doc or that the doc could protect the cop. The cop should definitely not role-claim just because he finds a scum.

You want cop to remain quiet if he found scum.

??????

So if cop remains quiet about finding scum but didn't somehow urge/reveal to the town that suspect and we get a mis-lynch/no lynch instead AND then mafia got lucky...didn't we miss that chance to lynch a mafia?


NOTE: to the cop....do what you think is best.

[KevinH]

Day 1 he suggested that everyone spread out to different rooms. If we had followed that strategy, the mafia would have killed one of us Night 1.

I addressed this before but to refresh your memory:

I propose we leave 2 locations empty and have 5 locations with 2 players and 1 location with 3 players.

I agree that 4 separate locations is a better strategy than the one I suggested but mine would only be slightly less optimal.

Regarding my consistent pro-town play:

Day 2 he thinks we should no lynch - a bad strategy since it's all but certain that mafia will start their night killing. This also goes against his previous style of play where he would vote no lynch on day 1 but push for a lynch on day 2.

I'm only suggesting that it could be a possible valid strategy. I have not voted no-lynch and am open to lynching if it is in the town's best interest. In previous games, there were usually strong suspects so a day 2 lynch was warranted. It's not quite so clear here.

Day 2 he also suggested that some of us drop clues on who we think is guilty/innocent so that the cop can give us information without exposing himself. As CD has pointed out, this is a bad strategy that will only help the mafia narrow down who is/is not the cop.

So instead, EM and CD want the cop's investigations to be lost if the cop is killed. Is that a scum-tell or what?

I'd like more clarification on this as well because I don't see it.

More clarification on the OMGUS:

Do you have anyone in mind that could be mafia at this point?

I don't have any really strong feelings.
There's an OMGUS on EM.

In the context of answering the question of who could be mafia, I was answering that I could think EM is mafia because he voted for me, not that he was responding to something I said about him.

[junkahoolik]

cd, when i proposed that strategy yesterday, you and narsis said that the cop could keep quiet if he found a scum and only claim when he found 2 or more. now you say this?? i'm confused...

[KevinH]

??????

So if cop remains quiet about finding scum but didn't somehow urge/reveal to the town that suspect and we get a mis-lynch/no lynch instead AND then mafia got lucky...didn't we miss that chance to lynch a mafia?

I said the cop shouldn't role-claim.

The cop can make accusations without stating he is the cop. For instance, EM is making accusations against me. If he is killed and discovered to be the cop, then those accusations might hold more merit. (Unfortunately, he was in a different room from me so his misguided accusations are definitely not due to an investigation.)

[CanucksDynasty]

cd, when i proposed that strategy yesterday, you and narsis said that the cop could keep quiet if he found a scum and only claim when he found 2 or more. now you say this?? i'm confused...

Can you please find a quote where I said this?
I don't recall saying such a thing.

The only thing I remember is that you wanted the cop to claim first on D1 (that's without any night actions).
It's a bit different if a cop has actually found scum.

And I definitely don't remember saying that a cop should wait until he's found 2 or more mafia.

It's 35 pages already...so forgive if I don't go sifting through the pages.

As for the cop to roleclaim...that's for the cop to decide.
Personally if I was the cop and found scum (assuming that there is a doc), I would tell everyone so as to lynch mafia.
Also, remember the game mechanics were still in play.
It would have been impossible for the doc to hide his identity and protect the doc at the same time.

Of course it now depends on whether the power roles have no resitrictions regarding movements during night.

[CanucksDynasty]

So instead, EM and CD want the cop's investigations to be lost if the cop is killed. Is that a scum-tell or what?

WIFOM


Really now. I pointed out how if we did something as you suggested...it would have possibly revealed the cop's identity.
You also avoided my previous questions about how many mafia voted for crazy and how many voted for SinKon/Falzis.
Also you didn't explain why you think there would be a cop and no doc.

In all the games I've played...those 2 roles usually go hand in hand.
So why no doc???

Also...it's up to the cop to decide the merit of roleclaiming if he has found scum.
In no way should the cop roleclaim if he just found townie.

[Narsis]

In no way should the cop roleclaim if he just found townie.

unless he was about to be lynched...