459 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

[OOC] Eh...that's not good. We shouldn't make replacements on a lynch day, especially given current circumstances. Canik could safely wait till one of the inactives gets lynched and replace the other one.

 

KevinH, let's assume Fermion/Canik gets lynched and turns out to be town. Would it be possible for him to replace Robert on such event? I mean being any town on D1 would not provide any information that wouldn't be publicly known (even his role would be revealed upon death) and he hasn't played long enough so that people would be confused with such swap. Because it would be much better for the game to have active player instead of inactive one [/OOC]

 

Rhizo, why do make such connection between Mandarjin and Fermion/Canik? I might have lost it somewhere but I didn't notice that.

[Imran Ehsan]

I didnt find Canik's post that scummy tbh. I am gonna unvote him in case of a late vote to lynch him. I dont like the robert lynch as well but a completely inactive player is better than an active one.

 

Unvote

[Canik]

So you haven't said anything that makes me think much differently....honestly what you said is exactly what Mandarijn mentioned which we've disputed would be likely lead to the cop being found quicker. Not only that, but suggesting townies makes various scum claims would only play into helping the Scum if we did that because it's likely more people will guess wrong on who the scum is, allowing the Scum to narrow down their list of who the cop is. If people are going to guess each day of who a townie/scum is, they have a lot better chance of guessing who a town player is and getting it right then guessing a scum player and getting it right. The more people who guess wrong, the quicker the list of who the possible cop is gets smaller.

The general idea is the same but I don't think anyone suggested executing it as I did. Though maybe I missed it, there was a lot to read. Correct me if I'm wrong.

And yeah, I realize the idea was largely rejected because it could lead to scum narrowing down who the cop is and one of the proposed solutions was to claim both a town & scum each day, but then we wouldn't know which one was true. I tried to solve both those issues with my proposal.

It doesn't completely solve the narrowing down issue, but with a little luck there will be multiple claims on actual scum. Plus the cop is actually quite likely to post a town result. That should make it pretty damn hard for scum to figure out who the cop is, so the cop would be pretty safe while leaving a bread-trail for us in case he dies by chance before he can reveal his info.

And I remind everyone, we only need the cop to stay under cover for a couple of nights. After which he'd be revealing himself anyway and would be out of/low on shots.

I won't be terribly offended if the idea is still rejected, tho I am a little offended if I get lynched for trying to help

I didn't say "Hey guys this plan is perfect we should definitely do this".. I just had an idea for how it might work and thought I'd throw it out there to be considered.
 

[The Warrior]

I think that Canik's proposal has merit. Regardless of how we each decide to post our thoughts the one thing that is clear is that we need any info that our cop gets and have it on the table in case he is killed at night. The idea of everybody posting one name each day and saying "town" or "scum" along with it would leave that breadcrumb trail for if/whenever our cop is targeted. With every single one of us posting a name each day there is a very high likelihood of more than one person giving a correct guess on a town or scum. It could help the scum narrow down the possible list of candidates to be the cop but even if it takes them two days to find him that is at least two more days worth of information that we have at our disposal.

More than anything we need everyone to actively post their thoughts each day. We need as much conversation as possible to analyze people's posts and to weed out the scum.

I am satisfied with Canik's responses so far so I will be removing my vote on him.

Unvote Canik.

I am not satisfied with Whitebeard's posts however. What is going on there? They continue to be suspicious to me.

Vote Whitebeard.

[Ali bin Turban]

Canik we've been through this and it's a bad tactic. You might want to check my post again if you've missed it: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-1/page-4#entry856635 .

 

I think that Canik's proposal has merit. Regardless of how we each decide to post our thoughts the one thing that is clear is that we need any info that our cop gets and have it on the table in case he is killed at night. The idea of everybody posting one name each day and saying "town" or "scum" along with it would leave that breadcrumb trail for if/whenever our cop is targeted. With every single one of us posting a name each day there is a very high likelihood of more than one person giving a correct guess on a town or scum. It could help the scum narrow down the possible list of candidates to be the cop but even if it takes them two days to find him that is at least two more days worth of information that we have at our disposal.

More than anything we need everyone to actively post their thoughts each day. We need as much conversation as possible to analyze people's posts and to weed out the scum.

I am satisfied with Canik's responses so far so I will be removing my vote on him.

Unvote Canik.

I am not satisfied with Whitebeard's posts however. What is going on there? They continue to be suspicious to me.

Vote Whitebeard.

But you mister are now added to my suspects list. This is a terrible idea (even though I took my part in conceiving it) and it was already discussed why. I understand that Canik didn't get as much time as we did to think about it and also could missed some posts, but you on the other hand were taking part in that discussion and still are trying to support it. 

[The Warrior]

I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately. We just need activity, participation, and information. We need whatever information that the cop can provide. We can't afford to lose it before it can be shared because otherwise we literally have nothing but instinct to act on (or the slim chance of the jail keeper targeting the correct scum member at night and preventing a kill).

[Rhizoctonia]

I'm sorry, at this point I do not see anyone looking to be helpful town.  I had some ideas of who else was town, but at this point the actions of these people make me completely second guess it.  The mere fact people are looking to vote off Robert which will give us no information to go on is beyond stupid to me.  Robert hasn't posted, no one has been able to get a vibe off him, and the best we can hope for is that he's scum...because otherwise it's a complete waste.  I would much rather vote off someone whose said some things and got vibes off of then someone who hasn't said a word, and hopefully will get replaced and could end up being a helpful town. 

 

I don't get what Canik said has suddenly made him look town.  He's said nothing, he actually did the same as Fermion did and merely restating what other people have.  Unless I'm not reading what he's trying to say, it merely looks like a reworded idea that Mandarijn had already suggested, that everyone each day guesses a person and their role which then allows the cop to do the same, but scum wont be able to know exactly who the scum is because it'll be mixed in with everyone else.  This idea was already suggested, this idea was already discussed, and this idea was already shown why it would be a bad idea.  Obviously Canik read the idea from Mandarijn...so it seems odd that he wouldn't read a few posts later of how it was a bad idea.  I understand he just took over, and is far behind, but I'm not buying it, not that much has really been said.  I don't see anything in his response that makes me suspect him less then when Fermion was playing, and simply a regurgitated idea that most agreed is not a good choice.  

I feel bad for Canik, as I agree that he probably should of replaced after this lynch, and I'd hate someone to just replace someone and get lynched, but nonetheless I still think it's the best choice.  Fermion gave me a bad vibe early on, as well as he did for others, and I believe that voting Canik would give us a lot more information one way or the other for day 2 if he's lynched.  His first response he listed the likes of ABT/Imran/TW as looking townie....if he's lynched and found to be scum it would make me ponder if some of the people he named were scum buddies that he was trying to help get town points.  Not only that, but he again suggested an idea that was already discussed as being bad choice, for which even after it was suggested it was a bad idea Imran was still for which makes me a bit suspicious, and Mandarijn being the one to bring it up.  If he was found to be scum, my attention would be drawn to Imran who was one of the people Canik listed he thought was town, as well as still being for Mandarijn's idea after the downside of doing so was discussed.  If he was found to be town, then it would leave me to less suspect the likes of the 3 people he felt was "town."

 

So sorry, at this point I'm beyond frustrated.  I don't see how a lynch on Robert is going to be helpful, and at this point anyone voting him and/or not voting someone that has given off some vibes has lost my townie points.  The only hope is Robert is Scum, which god hope he is, because otherwise you'll have set yourselves up badly for D2.  Each game I've played everyone wants to talk about it being as important to do a good lynch on a town to get information for the next day, and to me, it seems no one is doing so.  There is a lot more information to lynch Fermion/Canik with what he's said and suggested then someone who hasn't said a thing.   It sucks for Canik to be lynched instantly after replacing someone, but unfortunately he is the person I see most useful going forward if he's found to be scum or town.  Was hoping to win a game this time around....but at this point I see the likes of true townies trying to ruin it.  

 but scum wont be able to know exactly who the scum is because it'll be mixed in with everyone else. 

 

 

Meant to read but the scum wont be able to known exactly who the cop is because it'll be mixed up with everyone elses.

[Lyner]

Again, D2 will not be different. Let's play a guessing game and assume we lynch Robert and he turns out to be a town. Then at night, lets say, KH is killed. What will you make out of it? Pretty much nothing. We need to put more effort than just being content with lynching inactives and waiting for the cop that may or may not yeld results.

 

But if you're so confident, please tell me what is your plan for the upcoming days? How do you imagine they'll play out?

 

Then I'd give townie points for those who're on Robert wagon for making a stance and trying to find scums, and I'd suspect those who're avoiding to votes on either major wagon to lower his profile.

 

We pressure lurkers if nobody active were suspicious enough for the next days, as you can see Rafay goes away again after we stopped pressuring him

 

 

Anyway we're reaching deadline and I think there is no-one who reaches half majority? Can we have an extension since Canik replaced Fermion?

 

Vote: No Lynch

 

 

TW and Rhizo feels a bit scummy right now

[Canik]

Canik we've been through this and it's a bad tactic. You might want to check my post again if you've missed it: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-1/page-4#entry856635 .

I did see that post but I didn't fully comprehend it at the time and had to read 5 more pages after that. I do fully understand it now and it does bring up important considerations.

Without our "help" as I've mentioned scums have bit over 50% chance to
find who's cop after 3 nights. With our "help" that's probably around
80-90%.

Though, I'm still not sure the idea is that terrible. After 3 nights, the Cop will have used 3 investigations and posted them. So even if he says nothing and is killed on night 4, we'd then know who the cop was and instantly get all his results.

Whereas if we don't try that plan, and the cop dies too soon, we get nothing. Not to mention, the cop would probably reveal himself around that time anyway. We will only have a shot or two left, which should probably be used by Jailkeep/Vigilante. So what great benefit is there to keep the cop safe & under cover past that point? I see the potential for some benefit, could maybe use 1 more investigation, but I'm not sure that's worth the risk of getting nothing. Basically, one bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the bush, and in this scenario I feel like it's more like 1.2 birds in the bush, not even 2 birds.

He's said nothing, he actually did the same as Fermion did and merely restating what other people have. Unless I'm not reading what he's trying to say, it merely looks like a reworded idea that Mandarijn had already suggested

If you were expecting a completely original thought after all that's been discussed, you're expecting quite a bit.

It is true my suggestion is basically the same as Mandjarin's just slightly tweaked, but I think some of you gave up on it too early. The risk doesn't seem that high, since shots are limited so cop can't keep investigating after a point, but the benefit of the bread-crumbs would be very significant.
 

[Rhizoctonia]

Again, D2 will not be different. Let's play a guessing game and assume we lynch Robert and he turns out to be a town. Then at night, lets say, KH is killed. What will you make out of it? Pretty much nothing. We need to put more effort than just being content with lynching inactives and waiting for the cop that may or may not yeld results.
 
But if you're so confident, please tell me what is your plan for the upcoming days? How do you imagine they'll play out?

 
Then I'd give townie points for those who're on Robert wagon for making a stance and trying to find scums, and I'd suspect those who're avoiding to votes on either major wagon to lower his profile.
 
We pressure lurkers if nobody active were suspicious enough for the next days, as you can see Rafay goes away again after we stopped pressuring him
 
 
Anyway we're reaching deadline and I think there is no-one who reaches half majority? Can we have an extension since Canik replaced Fermion?
 
Vote: No Lynch
 
 
TW and Rhizo feels a bit scummy right now

There isn't really a need for an extension...as it takes 4 at deadline and Robert already has that.

And to remark about me being scummish, not sure what has made you think that, but o well I suppose. My posts have only tried to help Town from showing how an idea some thought would be good could be in fact costly to do, and try to scum hunt. I don't see how killing off an inactive who hasn't said s single word to give people a clue is worth doing, as we're going to be at the same situation we are at D2 as we are now. If people are going to push a lynch D1, it certainly should be for someone who may give us information for the next day from what they said. I've been told in multiple games that lynching town is just as important as lynching scum....yet I don't see what important information we'll get from hitting Robert....at least go after someone whose either been suspicious or made claims of other people.

I'm trying to win, and lynching an inactive is not going to win it for us. He either is scum and get lucky or we wasted our lynch that provided no additional help, and now cost us a town that maybe could get replaced.

[Lyner]

Oh so Robert did reach half majority, no need for extension then

 

 

 

Well Rhizo, if you don't agree that lynching Robert will benefit town then the only choice is 'No Lynch', no?

[Imran Ehsan]

Well Rhizo, if you don't agree that lynching Robert will benefit town then the only choice is 'No Lynch', no?

 

No. There are other valid targets as well.

 

Lurkers: iSocialism, Rafay

Scummy posts (but probably nooby posts): Whitebeard

 

I will go back to my previous choice.

 

Vote: iSocialism

[Lyner]

I want to hear Rhizo's opinion since he supported 'no lynch day 1' a few days ago

[KevinH]

Robert2424 had half-majority at the deadlie so he is lynched.
I won't count Imran's latest vote (not that it matters but just on principal).

Vote Count:

Robert2424 (4): Mandarijn, Rafay, Chaplain of Death, King Hitler,
Canik (1): Rhizoctonia,
Imran Ehsan (1): iSocialism,
Lyner (1): Ali bin Turban,
iSocialism (1): Canik, 
Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
Rafay (0):
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Chaplain of death (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (2): Whitebeard, Lyner,

Not voting: Robert2424, Imran Ehsan,

 

Robert2424, Vanilla Townie, is lynched

 
It is now Night 1.
X and Y are both currently 4.
I will tell the townie power poles the new value of X after the night, but not post it in thread.

Please send night actions to me by 12:00 EDT Wednesday, June 1.
 

[KevinH]

Night 1 ends.

Unfortunately for the town ...

Lyner, Vanilla townie, has been killed in the night.


Vote Count:

Canik (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
iSocialism (0):  
Whitebeard (0):
Rafay (0):
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Chaplain of death (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, Mandarijn, Rafay, Chaplain of Death, King Hitler, Rhizoctonia, iSocialism, Ali bin Turban, Canik, The Warrior, Whitebeard,

 

 
It is now Day 2.

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.
 

[KevinH]

Town power roles have been informed of the new value of X.

[The Warrior]

Well we're starting day two down 2 vanilla townies.. Our only consolation is that we didn't lynch one of our power roles and the scum didn't find the cop.

 

I think that it's reasonably safe to assume that the values of 'X' and 'Y' are probably both 3 now.

 

Assuming that the scum's role cop used his night action that would mean that with 8 other players (non-scum) to choose from there is a 37.5% (3-in-8) chance that they have identified one of our power roles and a 62.5% (5-in-8) chance that they have identified a third vanilla townie.

 

Assuming that our cop used his night action that would mean that with 11 players (other than himself) alive to choose from there was a 27.27% (3-in-11) chance that he identified scum and a 72.72% (8-in-11) chance that he identified another townie.

 

Hopefully the cop got lucky!

[SeaBeeGipson]

So far, in my opinion. Rhizo and AbT are townies. Scum wouldn't kill someone that had a scum trying to lynch then, wouldn't make sense to me to leave an obvious trail like that. Rhizo was very against killing Robert. If he was scum and knew Robert was a townie, he would've just stayed quiet and let it happen. The only part about Rhizo making me feel iffy is Lyner was questioning him alot the end of D1, then ends up lynched. However, in my head at least, it makes him feel more townie, as if scum is trying to set Rhizo up.

X value should be 3 if everything went well. Vig obviously didn't use his ability (unless by some strange, unlikely event scum didn't kill anyone and vig killed lyner.) Jail keeper shouldn't have used his ability as there was no use D1 and if the cop did his job according to plan, we'd be at 3. I agree with TW on that.

Now, as far as moving on from that. With this information, it is likely someone on the Robert wagon is a scum. I know I'm part of the wagon, even casting the killing vote, but it's a point that needs to be brought up. I'm going to end my assumptions from what happened so far at that. Interesting to hear what others make of this.

[Mandarijn]

I guess we should start with pressuring the lurkers again...

 

Rafay, iSoc, Whitebeard! You guys need to participate more!!! 

[Rhizoctonia]

So far, in my opinion. Rhizo and AbT are townies. Scum wouldn't kill someone that had a scum trying to lynch then, wouldn't make sense to me to leave an obvious trail like that. Rhizo was very against killing Robert. If he was scum and knew Robert was a townie, he would've just stayed quiet and let it happen. The only part about Rhizo making me feel iffy is Lyner was questioning him alot the end of D1, then ends up lynched. However, in my head at least, it makes him feel more townie, as if scum is trying to set Rhizo up.

X value should be 3 if everything went well. Vig obviously didn't use his ability (unless by some strange, unlikely event scum didn't kill anyone and vig killed lyner.) Jail keeper shouldn't have used his ability as there was no use D1 and if the cop did his job according to plan, we'd be at 3. I agree with TW on that.

Now, as far as moving on from that. With this information, it is likely someone on the Robert wagon is a scum. I know I'm part of the wagon, even casting the killing vote, but it's a point that needs to be brought up. I'm going to end my assumptions from what happened so far at that. Interesting to hear what others make of this.

 

 

You revealed what I was hoping someone would start doing.  My plan early on this day was to wait and not talk for awhile and see who jumped on trying to push a lynch on me, due to the fact Lyner was questioning me a bit near the end and he suddenly ended up dead that it's a reason he got lynched.  I was hoping to sit back and wait for the scum to come out and start that push, so then it would expose them.  Either people would believe me and we could flip the script on them and lynch one of them that was pushing the lynch, or worse case people wouldn't believe me, I'd die, and then people would get a good idea of who some scum were, since some were probably the ones really trying to see me get lynched.

 

Here's what I take from things.  I wondered why Lyner was the one the scum targeted.  I was quite surprised because though I know he's well versed in Mafia I believe, he wasn't really the most active or looking to scum hunt.  TBH, if I was scum, I'd look to take out some of the most active/experienced/analytical players, the likes of Imran/ABT/Mand/TW, just because they're good at finding scum (at least they have shown in 2 games I've played).  The only reason I can think of to target Lyner is his brief callout of TW and I, and them look to push the lynch on me or TW because he ended up dead.  So I wait to see if anyone still tries to do so.  I'm not sold yet that TW is for sure town, so I'm not crossing him off, but I imagine that was the scum's plan is to look to make a reason to push a lynch on me or TW (if TW's town).  What worries me is that they didn't take out 1 of the guy's I expected they would (Imran/ABT/Mand/TW), so there's probably a good chance at least one of them might be which I know they likely know how to play scum well which is going to be hard to know.  I also feel I could of been right with my suspicion/push of CAnik/Fermion and they didn't kill me last night because they felt if I was killed, it would push more suspicion on Canik.

 

I hope people believe I'm town.  I've tried to help town by trying to state holes in strategies early on that could hurt town, and the fact I tried hard not to see Robert killed who was town.   I would hope people could see a Scum wouldn't try as hard as I was to save a townie.  I obviously didn't know Robert was town, and was glad he came up town because if he came up scum I knew town would likely mislynch again to kill me because I tried hard not to get him lynched.  I didn't like the vote on Robert, and what I feared happened did.  We killed off a inactive town that we could of hopefully got a replacement for, and doing so, we gained nothing.  The only good scenario was Robert was scum...anything else was going to be bad.  We gained nothing from it, Robert didn't suspect anyone, Robert didn't claim anything, Robert literally said nothing.  I get an inactive player isn't any help, but if we were going to lynch on D1, I wanted it to be something that we could then use if we mislynched, and some other reason besides inactivity.

 

I voted Fermion/Canik because I got suspicious vibe from Fermion before Canik took over.  Though Canik didn't increase my suspicion on the few posts he made, he didn't actually change my mind either.  His responses were pretty standard, mostly suggesting an Idea that was already mentioned and agreed by most was a bad idea.  Lynching him on D1 would of been a lot better choice.  He gave off suspicion to a few people to start, he suggested a few people he felt was "town," and pushed a lynch on Isocialism I believe at the end.  Had he been found scum we could of likely wrote isocialism off as town, and the people he suggest were town we could possibly suspect as him trying to help his fellow scum buddies gain points.  If he was town, then people pushing the lynch (I would likely be target #1) we could to suspect as scum, as well as take his feelings on scum/town as possible something.  We gained a lot more from that lynch then Robert....all we succeeded with Robert was losing a person that was not helping nor hurting us, and didn't give us anything to work off.  

 

For now, unless some other reasonable suspicion arises, my vote is Canik.

 

Vote:  Canik

 

Fermion made me suspicious early on, Canik neither helped that nor hurt that, and found his posts nothing but repeated information others said, from his idea to his vote on isocialism.  I also might have been saved last night from a kill to not put more suspicion on him.  

 

For now I also suspect Imran a bit.  Imran at the end after looking to get Canik lynched suddenly switched it off him so "a late night lynch couldn't happen."  He then switched his vote to someone who wasn't going to get lynched anyway, following Canik.  For someone who was so sold early on to vote Fermion, I don't see anything Canik said that would alleviate suspicion, merely didn't add to it.  For someone who is the biggest pusher for a lynch D1, he wasn't even involved in a vote to lynch anyone possible.  Can see Imran looking to suspect a fellow scum early on to later go back to and say, "Hey I suspected him early on, and voted against him," though had no intention of keeping the vote at deadline and switching it as he did.  Imran's an intelligent guy and a strong mafia player...though atm I don't believe there's enough merit there to fully suspect him, but I am not writing my thoughts off.  IMO, he would be a top target for Scum to knock off for his experience and ability to catch scum (at least that would be me)...tbh the longer he's not killed at night, the more I suspect him.  I'll wait to see how he continues to vote.

 

Whitebeard - Suspicious early on too.  Hasn't added anything besides his random OPP posts.  Hopefully he starts to add something or my suspicion is going to stay.

 

Mandarijn, Rafay, Chaplain of Death, King Hitler - Could be a scum in the mist of this vote.  Though I don't see more then 1 scum at most bandwagonning on here if any.  Could be just 4 townies voting and doing the work for the scum without them having to get involved, but not sure.