Endgame - CLICK ME

 

TEXAS JUSTICE II

During the night, you hear a shot echoing from the town hall. Each townsperson alerts the other, and slowly a small crowd of people, each carrying a rifle, run to the hall. Slowly, carefully, you search the hall. Entering the Mayor's office, you see Mole Stargazer shot dead, his blood leaking all over his desk. Clutched in his hand is a note, written in a hurried scrawl.

 

"People!

The town is not safe! The mafia are about to kill me, I've not given them money.

Find them! Shoot them! Hur

 

The note trails off into a scribble, adorned with blood. Looking around with a shudder, you realise there are Mafia amongst you. The doors are slammed shut, and the rifles are readied - but you're willing to try discussion first.

Edited April 29, 200917 yr by molestargazer

I seen that Kevin just nominated vgmmaster so I went back through all of her posts and read them all again. Over all I have a good feel about vgm. She's been consistent with past playing styles in that she's aggressively going after people and she's of course suspicious of me. But seriously, she's been consistent in supporting shooting the person with no bullet theory and stuck with that with after Sir Jesus fired his weapon. She has also frequently volunteered to be the shooter. Not just one time but I believe as many as three. There were only a few posts that raised my eye so I'll post those with my comments for all to see as well and you can make your own decision.

 

@Sir Jesus - I'm assuming your new (I don't recognize your name in the mafia arena), let me explain. Now, my numbers may be off as it's been some time since I last played (not counting the recent mini), but iirc, the size of the mafia is roughly 1/4 of the players in the game. So in a 12 player game, one would suspect there to be 3 mafia members. With this being a 9 person game, mathematically, 2 sounds like the number which has the highest probability of happening.

 

Also, him?

 

Perhaps her and Sir Jesus are scum buddies and this was a clever way to create distance between them.

 

[

 

Kind of a random thought here, but we've been focusing on who should die first and be the first shooter and all that. But what about the last shooter? Any plans for that? I'm also wondering if we might have people willing to be the last shooter. Or among the last at least.

 

She later said this was a trap but could it have been she was fishing for names. Scum would love to have that information so they know who to target. If a scum is next to be the shooter he/she would target one of our trusted members instead of the townie w/ no bullet. Or maybe if one of the scum was listed as most trusted they could use that to their advantage as well.

I don't want Kevin to die. He's one of the few that we can trust. Also just because a mafia member fires their bullet they still must be killed for the town to win.

 

 

I don't know why, but I get the feeling Mango enjoys killing me early. I feel like Ovidius >_> (how's that for an old player reference? ).

 

About the both scum comment, I already explained about the math and several others have backed me up on that saying that 2 scum is indeed the most likely. Both may not have been the correct word to use, but yet, I feel it still applies in this situation. For me being suspicious on you Mango, all I said was that your comment of not knowing how the town wins rubbed me the wrong way. (post #22 under win conditions for reference). However, you are trying to come up with a way for the town to win (or so it appears that way). All I did was point out potential flaws. It's better to know the weaknesses in a plan then to assume it's all strong and follow blindly.

 

And you know what. While I won't act obviously as I want people to get their thoughts in, I could see you as being scum Mango. You suggesting that I should be the first to die is interesting. But I look at it this way. While I'm not in disagreement with your plan or Narsis's or Kevin's for that matter, I'm not following like a blind sheep either. I'm trying to raise objections so our plan becomes stronger and not just filled out with random names or whatever. And call me crazy, but the people who are saying that (I agree with whoever) would appear more scummy on my radar in all honesty. Anybody can say that they agree with such and such and try to play it safe as they can, but it takes somebody to voice her opinion, whether for or against a plan. If that gets them killed, so be it, but it's better then saying yes to everything. Saying yes to everything is what scum either want or want to do (depending on which side of the coin they're on). If your scum and the sheep follow you, you can get through with little to no problems for at least a while. But if somebody raises their hand and speaks up, the scum start to sweat. And I think that if I die and your scum, the sheep will follow into your hands, just so you can herd them up and watch them kill each other one by one.

 

I don't know. I just find it funny how I'm the only one pointing the stuff like this out and the first to possibly be on the chopping block.

 

Keep these two posts in mind.

 

This seems like quite a scripted conversation....

 

We lost Aquinas.

 

We lost Aquinas' bullet.

 

Who was responsible? Sir Jesus.

 

He may or may not have had the best of intentions but my Scummeter points toward him more than anyone else.

 

I'm willing to shoot, but we should then have some discussion about who will shoot me ...

 

 

Who else is willing to shoot and be shot?

 

Fixed it for you

I really think KevinH and Narsis should be some of the last left alive. I have the strongest pro-town feelings about them[him]. I wouldn't mind seeing Curufinwe[a townie] fire the next shot. He hasn't necessarily done anything scum like but I just have stronger townie feelings about everyone else. I believe vgm recommended him as well.

 

 

I think we need to be consistent. For all I know, Sir Jesus is a townie. I just think he's the best option we have now.

 

If I shoot and Sir Jesus is proven a townie, I still want the the plan to continue and have someone shoot me. I won't have my bullet, so it won't matter if I die.

 

If we deviate from the plan, then somebody with a bullet must be shot. If the target ends up as a townie, then we will have lost another townie bullet.

O wow bravo, you are such a brave townie!

 

This is 100% correct and 100% the reason why we should not have KevinH be the shooter. He's scoring very high on my townie meter and it will always be best if we pick the non towniest out of all us to kill Sir Jesus. I posted an example why earlier that I'll post again that may help explain why. It's exactly what Kevin said but formatted differently.

Oh but Kevinh, you shouldn't die because you are obviously so townie because of your last statement!

 

Perhaps this is an attempt by scum to influence the flow of the game away from a pro-town strategy.

 

I hereby nominate Vgmmaster[a townie] to shoot Sir Jesus.

 

Now KevinH and EM have been seated high in townieness. I'm not saying for sure that they are scum, but please stay vigilant fellow townies.

As far as deviating from the plan, I was saying it for this reason. Let's say Jesus is shot and is town. That makes it 5-2. Then that shooter is shot and it becomes 4-2. Anytime after this could be seen as an opportunity for the scum and to possibly create confusion. I don't know if they'd go that early or not, but this is the earliest I would expect them to try something, provided that both are still alive at that point. Also provided it's 2 scum and not 3, but as mentioned 2 still seems the most likely.

 

If we can follow the plan, that's all good. I'm just trying to look at it worse case scenario.

As far as deviating from the plan, I was saying it for this reason. Let's say Jesus is shot and is town. That makes it 5-2. Then that shooter is shot and it becomes 4-2. Anytime after this could be seen as an opportunity for the scum and to possibly create confusion. I don't know if they'd go that early or not, but this is the earliest I would expect them to try something, provided that both are still alive at that point. Also provided it's 2 scum and not 3, but as mentioned 2 still seems the most likely.

 

If we can follow the plan, that's all good. I'm just trying to look at it worse case scenario.

 

 

I agree with what vgm says. With two scum alive I don't see them making a move until its less than 4 townie(w/ bullets) vs 2 scum. If they deviated from the plan they would almost certainly be shot on sight. But if it got to 3 vs 2 they would of course both fire and the game would end.

 

We still have a couple chances and I would guess we will get at least 1 scum by the time it gets to 5 players. There are still 8 alive now and if we can get 1 out of the next 3 right we'll be sitting pretty good. Let's hope there are only 2 scum.

Well, if we're talking about math, then the strategy is flawed. Statistically, you'd have a higher chance of killing townies than scums with more townies than mafia in game. I'm not sure if you've thought of that. vgm points out a good point and makes me think the strategy is prone to abuse (or can be taken advantage by scum). Again, I think with that plan, there's a higher propensity to choose townies to die instead of mafia. Even if it's 1-1 death, we're just all going by random here. So if we speak purely of chances, with that strategy, there's more chances to kill townies.

 

I don't want Sir Jesus killed. I think he's a townie. Making a move this early in the game = not scumtell. If based on this we can ascertain that Sir Jesus is a townie, even without a bullet, we know he's a townie so he will add to the numbers at the end of the day. Or he could be an added target, in which case mafia loses a bullet so win for us still.

if SJ does turn up to be a townie...then we may need to deviate from the plan. the reason: if his shooter is also townie and we shoot him and the scum is smart then the town just lost the game. thus, after SJ is shot and if he turns up townie...then we need to choose extremely carefully who we shoot next and who shoots them. deviating from the plan at that point could be the only way to win.

Well, if we're talking about math, then the strategy is flawed. Statistically, you'd have a higher chance of killing townies than scums with more townies than mafia in game. I'm not sure if you've thought of that. vgm points out a good point and makes me think the strategy is prone to abuse (or can be taken advantage by scum). Again, I think with that plan, there's a higher propensity to choose townies to die instead of mafia. Even if it's 1-1 death, we're just all going by random here. So if we speak purely of chances, with that strategy, there's more chances to kill townies.

 

I don't want Sir Jesus killed. I think he's a townie. Making a move this early in the game = not scumtell. If based on this we can ascertain that Sir Jesus is a townie, even without a bullet, we know he's a townie so he will add to the numbers at the end of the day. Or he could be an added target, in which case mafia loses a bullet so win for us still.

 

without his bullet SJ is a burden to the town. numbers at the end of the day mean little. it's all about the bullets. we could outnumber the mafia entirely, but if both sides have no bullets, mafia win. thus even a player without a bullet is a burden and dangerous.

if SJ does turn up to be a townie...then we may need to deviate from the plan. the reason: if his shooter is also townie and we shoot him and the scum is smart then the town just lost the game. thus, after SJ is shot and if he turns up townie...then we need to choose extremely carefully who we shoot next and who shoots them. deviating from the plan at that point could be the only way to win.

 

Thank you, I'm glad people are beginning to understand what I mean. The plan is very controllable by those with information and coordination. Guess who has the only information and coordination: scum.

 

I really don't understand why people want my head so badly. You have seen what my only options were, anything other then my decision would have had a better chance to benefit scum. What have I done wrong this game? And if you say "you killed a townie!" then for the love of God gain some perspective.

well...you acted rashly and aggressively and although provoked no one else had shown any support for Aquinas. usually that shows scum or a powerrole. since there are no powerroles...

Everyone here has a powerrole. I didn't want mine taken away, as would the other 8 players in this game. That is not an indicator of being scum.

I'm not especially convinced that Vgm is scum. But I haven't been convinced about anybody else, either.

 

Yes, probability indicates that the next person shot will be a townie.

Would you rather shoot a townie with a bullet or a townie without a bullet?

This being the weekend...posting my 48hr absence.

Will post more on Monday.

 

CD.

 

Noted.

 

Not needed to prod anyone - yays!

Edited April 18, 200917 yr by molestargazer

I'm not especially convinced that Vgm is scum. But I haven't been convinced about anybody else, either.

 

Elaborate? People are playing a shrewd game which for a first timer (me), makes everyone hard to read, and to identify scum. However my thoughts are that the scum will now try to blend in more than ever? Yes? No? Surely to make sure that they survive to a certain point, they will be blending like mad?

 

 

Yes, probability indicates that the next person shot will be a townie.

Would you rather shoot a townie with a bullet or a townie without a bullet?

 

And most likely yes, we will mess up the next shootee, however surely someone with out a bullet is of no concern to us, we should focus on the scum with a bullet? If the scum doesn't have a bullet, then they are essentially useless.

 

My thoughts.

Discuss

Elaborate? People are playing a shrewd game which for a first timer (me), makes everyone hard to read, and to identify scum. However my thoughts are that the scum will now try to blend in more than ever? Yes? No? Surely to make sure that they survive to a certain point, they will be blending like mad?

 

Scum will always try to blend in.

 

 

 

 

And most likely yes, we will mess up the next shootee, however surely someone with out a bullet is of no concern to us, we should focus on the scum with a bullet? If the scum doesn't have a bullet, then they are essentially useless.

Wrong. If a scum doesn't have a bullet they are still a threat. We must kill all mafia in order to win.

 

You should have said if a townie doesn't have a bullet they are useless.

 

My thoughts.

Discuss

Ohh I see where you are coming from now, the scum can still communicate...

No, it's that the game ends when all of the bullets are used up. If a scum is still alive then they win.

Ohh yeah, d'oh.

But I still don't think Sir Jesus is scum.

It's hard to know who is scum and who is not.

 

Sir Jesus killed a townie and that is more than anyone else has done.

 

For the town to maximize its chances, Sir Jesus must be the target.

OOC: Posting just so you all know I'm not dead here. Slowness here / and crap elsewhere...yeah... >_>

 

Anyways, yeah, as I mentioned earlier, I'm still a fan of killing Jesus and not deviating from our current plan until afterwards (maybe the kill after that one even).

So who's going to kill Sir Jesus?

I still volunteer to do it myself.

Pfft not bothered if I do it either....

The scum are doing a really good job in hiding their identity so far. I've read through these pages over and over trying to find suspicious clues about all of you and there is nothing that stands out on anybody. I shouldn't say there are not things that may be questionable but that you have all acted pro townie for the most part. I can not see anyone standing out as being scummy. That being said, I still have my suspicions on who I feel may be scum. I don't want to say what it is just yet as I still want to keep watching for future tells to be discussed later.

 

Also what are everyone's opinion on moving on and picking our next shooter now?

No, i have to completly agree with you EM, every one is playing a closed game, 'tis a very good game if you asked me.

 

With regards to moving on, I believe that we should continue with the past method and do votes, one for shootee, and shooter.