@Preston... I love the stats you presented. The funny thing about stats is that it takes very little to make them support your assumptions.

Let me see, if I can make some stats for the scenarios you mentioned

 

1) I am mafia - i.e. I cant be Security Guard.

 

The town cop would role claim on day 2 and I would be lynched. The probability of this scenario is 27.3 %.

 

2) Assuming I am town and the security guard who forces a town lynch

 

Chances of this happening are 8/11 * 1/8 * 2/3 = 6.06%

 

3) Assuming I am town and the security guard who gets lucky

 

8/11 * 1/8 * 1/3 = 3.03%

 

4) Assuming that I am town and that mafia kills me at night

 

8/11 * 1/8 = 9.1 %

 

Well.. I dont see things going horribly wrong for town under any scenario.

 

I really like how you managed to manipulate the numbers to show that if I am left alive, town looses the game.

The only real given in my stats is that you have roleclaimed security guard while under suspicion. I present the scenarios as I saw them for how things could turn out tomorrow.

 

For one, your odds dont add up to 100%. If you include one side of a scenario, you need to include the other side otherwise things become imbalanced and the values dont make sense. The main difference between our lists is that you add the 1/8 odds-you-are-security-guard. I assumed that if you were town, then you were telling the truth - and since what town would SEE doesnt change, then it doesnt make much difference. If you include that 1/8, you also need to include the 7/8 opposite case. For example:

 

2a) Assuming d3mon is town and the security guard who forces a town lynch: 8/11 * 1/8 * 2/3 = 6.06%

2b) Assuming d3mon is town and not the security guard, but who forces a town lynch: 8/11 * 7/8 * 2/3 = 42.4%

 

I combined those largely because in either case town would see you suggesting a lynch target and then a townie dying, and because frankly if you're townie and NOT telling the truth at this stage then a counter-claim on you on day 2 would probably also result in your lynch.

If you are only listing yourself as 1/8 likely to be security guard, does that mean that we should NOT assume you are telling the truth?

 

A very interesting part of your analysis is that while you have tried to take apart every post that I made, you dont suspect CD at all.

 

Let me remind you about a list of scummy actions on his part (perhaps your too)

 

1) I dropped a hint about my role and he immediately jumped on it and asked for a full role claim. You supported his actions. Sounds scummy to me.

 

2) He role claims under circumstances that dont require a role claim. Moreover, his role claim proves nothing but you still dont suspect him. Again, I find this very suspicious.

 

3) There are tons of inconsistencies in his posting. At one time he claims that all the townie roles in last round were very powerful.. later he states that there were enough roles to balance the security guard role. Sounds scummy to me but you ignore it as if it was just another comment.

 

4) Both you and CD initially pressed for a role claim. I did and you said paraphrase or lynch. Again, I did... your reaction.. too late...we will lynch you anyway.

Since much of this day has turned into an examination of you, it's no surprise that many of my posts have been responses/analysis of your words and counter-accusations. People respond more to someone questioning their analysis; you'll note I have responded to KevinH rather at length as well.

 

@1 & @2: This has been said before, but I'll repeat it: the setting/intent of one's roleclaim and the role they claim both affect how easily that claim is believed. Last game we ended up pursuing and lynching EM, insomniac, because his roleclaim happened under suspicion - he threw it out there in an attempt to clear his name. Roleclaims in defense are always suspect, especially when they claim big targets.

 

@3: Last game all townies last town had 'power roles' - i.e. roles of SOME kind. This does not mean they were all 'very powerful'. Several of the roles were intended to actually hamper the security guard - one person who did nothing but present a false positive by moving every night (insomniac), a role that also moved every night but could find info if scum used their janitor (curious child) and an infinite-use pro-town role that would also show up (friendly neighbor).

 

@4: The key word has been "paraphrase". You gave just the role name 'Security Guard' with nothing else. By "paraphrase" we were asking you to basically take your role PM and run it through a thesaurus and give us the whole thing with synonyms that didnt destroy the meaning. We were looking for the details about how your role was implemented THIS game and how realistic/mole-like your PM sounded. We would then be able to pick apart your role PM for consistency, believability, etc. We asked you for the paraphrase several times; I held off voting until you returned largely because I was waiting for you to do so. The fact that you refused to ever provide that detail - all you did was point to the LAST game's role PM - increased our belief that you do not HAVE a security guard role PM from THIS game to paraphrase.

 

I also find it very disheartining to see so many inactives. Assuming that all scum members are active, this is seriously tipping the balance in the favour of mafia.

 

A hammer vote on me could come pretty soon. Assuming that town would be looking at my posts to decide who is scum, I would say that CD and Preston sound really scummy to me.

Narsis and Herodez need to respond, yes. I am interested in what Narsis thought of you, since you were on his list from very early on.

 

If you ARE town, then you've done a very good job of making a spectacle of yourself and not giving people defending you (largely KevinH) much of anything to work with.

 

I know you're new. I know it's possible that you are town and didnt realize that by mentioning the "past game survivor" bit you were letting slip you had a role. If you'd been cooperative and provided the paraphrase detail when most of the town asked for it instead of first saying you won't roleclaim then turning around and roleclaiming later, your claim would have been easier to believe. Not all of this game is hard mod-confirmed fact; behavior and the way people act when challenged is key. It's been difficult to explain your behavior if you are truly pro-town with such an important role.

 

If you're truly the security guard and just played badly, then there's not much else to say; we made a mistake. I hope this isn't the case.

 

The only thing currently making me waver at all is that if you're new it's possible you really HAVE played this badly. Though I still have trouble understanding why you'd give up and take death without a roleclaim if you really ARE the security guard... that makes no sense at all. Explain why you would just give up and die without a fight if you actually are the security guard.

 

I don't want anyone lynched, not even those probable scum who are after d3mon.

 

While CanucksDynasty and Preston have pressed the case, I believe it is quite possible that they are misguided townies. It will be helpful to the town later on to have posts with analysis like they make.

 

I was only trying to point out the weak arguments. Those that I ignored could possibly be true.

 

My role is one-use only and wouldn't help the town that much. I might or might not use it tonight. If d3mon is truly the security guard and uses his role tonight, he would know if actually did use my role. That would be a way of confirming him as a townie. Yes, he could guess with a 50% chance of success but there are probably other townies with similar weak roles that could further confirm him. They don't even have to announce it ahead of time.

 

I suggest that we not risk lynching the security guard.

 

d3mon, use your one search tonight and report what you see. Those of us with townie roles will be able to disprove your report if it is wrong. You might be scum and you might make a lucky guess, but I think that probability is much less than the alternatives.

 

I urge the townies that are voting for d3mon to unvote. Why would we want to lynch the one claimed investigative role that has no counter-claim? Stop the insanity!

I wish this would work KevinH. Unfortunately your plan does not provide ANY means to identify who is and isnt scum - everyone that d3mon lists will be forced to roleclaim, and everyone will of course claim some sort of role. At least one will be lying, the scum who nightkilled someone - but EVERYONE will be suspect, and many normal townies would be outed regardless of whether d3mon is scum or not. I know this is how security guard works, but when scum could manipulating this list it's a dangerous power to give them; who do THEY want to see roleclaim?

 

Still. Is there SOME way we can make this work? Part of the problem with discussing tomorrow's test NOW is that it tells scum everything we're thinking; its impossible to "catch" them, so it has to instead be some kind of logic trap.

 

For this test, If d3mon is scum his list cannot have real movement information, and hence will be a list of random targets.

If d3mon is town but fakeclaiming, his list cannot have real movement information - or alternately he wouldn't provide a list.

If d3mon is town and security guard, his list will have real movement information.

 

If d3mon is not security guard, there MAY be a real cop roleclaim on day 2. I say 'may' because we dont necessarily have a 'movement-detector' cop: we could have one of the types that is able to examine one person per night. The danger is that if that's the kind of cop we have and on night 1 he finds NOTHING, he probably wont roleclaim - and d3mon's list will go unchallenged.

 

If d3mon is not security guard and a real cop roleclaims on day 2, d3mon will most likely be lynched. This includes if he is town and fakeclaiming to either draw scum nightkill or avoid death.

 

If d3mon's list is unchallenged, then all those named will be forced to roleclaim.

If d3mon is scum and names someone that didnt move/use a role, that person will say it wasnt them and possibly be forced to do a full roleclaim on day 2 - more likely they'll claim vanilla townie. They will be suspect because they will appear to be scum trying to avoid getting caught.

If d3mon is scum and doesnt name someone who moved, that person can challenge the list - but that person will also be suspect for trying to discredit d3mon.

 

If d3mon is security guard and names someone that moved, that person can say "yes that was me" and do a full roleclaim. If that was a one-use role, then there's no further extra danger. If that was a multi-use role then that person is now outed and is a target night 2 onward. Anyone outed in this manner is suspect because this is also how scum would show up: they would fakeclaim and try to get away with it.

If d3mon is security guard and someone claims they moved and were not shown, or named and did not move, then those people would be suspect for trying to discredit d3mon - but it would also put d3mon's list (and whoever had said 'yes that was me') in question.

 

If d3mon is scum and names two townies and two scum as his findings, his fellow scum can collaborate with him and fakeclaim/verify his results to place additional suspicion on those who would probably say "no wait, that wasnt me" - especially if d3mon gets lucky and one of the two townies named really DID move. People d3mon did NOT name that moved would be able to speak up and try to discredit him, but it's possible that such people would be in the minority and hence look suspicious themselves.

 

If d3mon is security guard and a false-positive townie is lynched based on his information, then d3mon will still look suspect - but a less so if a lot of people are sticking up for him by saying he verified their night moves. If fewer people use their roles tonight then it will be harder to verify him, but it reduces chances of a false positive - less for a scum to hide in. If more people use their roles tonight then it will be easier to verify him, but who is actually scum will be lost in the mass and a false-positive will be very likely; we'll have essentially destroyed the security guard's usefulness.

 

At this point I've sat here FAR too long looking back over posts and trying to work out the logic of how a test could work, and the preview shows me an ungodly long post so I'm going to stop now.

 

d3m0n- You've seriously acted like scum in my eyes thus far. I believe anyone who suspects you is entirely justified in doing so, but it IS possible that you've just played this badly due to being new. If you are town, then answer what you meant by your post where you said you would take being lynched with no roleclaim, if you are the security guard. I also will ask you one last time to provide a PARAPHRASE of your role pm. You have NOT provided this so far. Respond to both of those things quickly and we'll see where it goes.

 

KevinH- I'm having trouble seeing how testing d3mon can work without forcing townie roleclaims, allowing scum co-conspirators to skew the process, or ruining the security guard's effectiveness through too many false-positive townie actions. If you can lay out a better plan that addresses these issues I /might/ be persuaded to go along with it, but per my above analysis I seriously cannot think of a way to test d3mon that would not end with the town at a major disadvantage... and it's VERY hard for me to ignore d3mon's behavior to this point.

 

-Preston

@KevinH - have you even considered that the real cop may have voted for d3mon and chose to remain hidden?

 

IF he's scum - then hooray for the town.

IF he's town - then we have a voting list to work with.

It's Day 1. Nobody knows nothin' ... not even the real cop.

 

My plan is not a guaranteed clearance of d3mon but it could certainly condemn him as scum or shift the probability of townie greatly in his favor.

 

First, you need to believe that I am townie and that I have a role.

If d3mon is scum, he has a 50% chance of guessing whether I do my thing or not.

 

Next, if another townies moves and isn't identified, that townie can role-claim and condemn d3mon -- we have to decide whether the townie that says they moved is truly a townie but if we then lynch d3mon the real townie, we'll have a clear indication of the scum that condemned d3mon.

 

If he identifies additional people as moving, then we have to decide whether those identified are scum or townie. They could say that they did move but they were townies and we'd have to decide if we beleive them. They could say they didn't move and condemn d3mon and we're in the same situation as the previous paragraph.

 

Regardless, we'll have some interesting things to talk about on day 2 if we do it this way. Otherwise, I'll get to say either "I told you so" or "you got lucky this time" and then we'll be guessing at the next lynch candidate with either 3/9 or 2/9 odds assuming the scum get a night-kill.

so your saying he needs to use his role( if he has it ) and tell us who moved? all someone has to do is claim they didn't move and he would be found out

 

Problem there is its a game of who is lying and who is telling the truth. It becomes of game of trust instead of logic

 

but anyway i want this disscussion to continue till deadline or for as long as possible that way he has a chance to do what he can

 

also sorry for being here more working 6 days a week does that to ya

Kevin, I agree with a lot of things in your post. What I would like to see 1st though is a summary from d3mon that gives more detail to his role. If there is a security guard, there may be different mechanics to the role than last game. I wouldn't put it past mole to add a few wrinkles to the game.

 

What concerns me is that he will not do that even though it will probably mean his own death. When deadline approaches and the town is set for a lynch, you better give them everything they ask for or it's going to be your head in the noose.

 

The town will almost always lynch on D1 regardless of how strong the case us. Look at this game as a case in point. You were the leading candidate because you made an April fools joke. If d3mon is what he says he us then he better do whatever it takes to stay alive.

d3mon has had plenty of chances to paraphrase his role. He linked a role from last game.

 

Question: Why couldn't he paraphrase his role from the pm he got????

 

Answer: He doesn't have it.

 

VOTE COUNT

d3mon (5): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, TerrorChrist, CaoCao, Preston

ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango

KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez

TerrorChrist (1): d3mon

CanucksDynasty (1): KevinH

 

Not Voting (0)

 

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

Edited April 15, 201115 yr by molestargazer

This has been a surprisingly active day 1. I wouldnt be surprised if mole ended up extending it upon request. This is a serious discussion that NEEDS to happen, and it should happen now.

 

We also need to hear from narsis and more from nerau, and if herodez is going to be replaced then lets get his replacement in here. The absolute WORST would be if d3mon is town and all the scum are largely sitting silent right now... letting us do this to ourselves and laughing about it.

 

Unvote

This should have been at the end of my huge post, after the questions; no point in letting this day end with the questions unanswered.

 

@d3mon: when you check into the thread read the questions I asked you at the end of my giant post and respond to them.

 

@Kevin: I'll take a look at your plan post again tomorrow; I've spent too much time examining the subject today. Short version: It's not only a question of "would the plan clear/condemn d3mon and possibly save our security guard", but rather a question of "would the plan result in fewer townie deaths/more scum deaths." I think that if d3mon gives us exactly what his claimed guard role can and cannot do, that will give us more to work with/test.

 

-Preston

d3mon has had plenty of chances to paraphrase his role. He linked a role from last game.

 

Question: Why couldn't he paraphrase his role from the pm he got????

 

Answer: He doesn't have it.

That's the same line of thinking I've expressed CD. However I am giving him one last chance to do so on this train of thought: he somehow did not understand what we meant by 'paraphrase'. His response/accusation to me earlier acted like he thought he had done exactly what we asked for, and he is still being lynched. It's a little bit of a stretch, but if he's genuinely new we have to ensure there is NO miscommunication here.

 

Quoting my own previous post:

By "paraphrase" we were asking you to basically take your role PM and run it through a thesaurus and give us the whole thing with synonyms that didnt destroy the meaning. We were looking for the details about how your role was implemented THIS game and how realistic/mole-like your PM sounded.

 

If d3mon again refuses to provide a paraphrase or respond to my other question at THIS stage in the game, I'll set my vote back on him and be virtually certain that he is scum.

 

-Preston

It's Day 1. Nobody knows nothin' ... not even the real cop.

 

Why do you keep saying this? We know how others have behaved. In my case, that is the foundation upon which I have cast my vote.

@KevinH - if there is a real cop then there probably isn't a security guard.

I don't want anyone lynched, not even those probable scum who are after d3mon.

 

While CanucksDynasty and Preston have pressed the case, I believe it is quite possible that they are misguided townies. It will be helpful to the town later on to have posts with analysis like they make.

 

I was only trying to point out the weak arguments. Those that I ignored could possibly be true.

 

My role is one-use only and wouldn't help the town that much. I might or might not use it tonight. If d3mon is truly the security guard and uses his role tonight, he would know if actually did use my role. That would be a way of confirming him as a townie. Yes, he could guess with a 50% chance of success but there are probably other townies with similar weak roles that could further confirm him. They don't even have to announce it ahead of time.

 

I suggest that we not risk lynching the security guard.

 

d3mon, use your one search tonight and report what you see. Those of us with townie roles will be able to disprove your report if it is wrong. You might be scum and you might make a lucky guess, but I think that probability is much less than the alternatives.

 

I urge the townies that are voting for d3mon to unvote. Why would we want to lynch the one claimed investigative role that has no counter-claim? Stop the insanity!

 

Again...this post assumes d3mon IS the security guard. Notice the language used.

 

BTW...your example of him confirming your movement at night doesn't prove anything if you are mafia too.

Why do you keep saying this? We know how others have behaved. In my case, that is the foundation upon which I have cast my vote.

 

I want people to keep perspective that the behavior isn't a good indicator. If d3mon is scum, how hard would it be to make up a paraphrase? He said it's the same as last time so what more do we need?

 

@KevinH - if there is a real cop then there probably isn't a security guard.

 

I agree. So maybe one person does know the truth.

 

Again...this post assumes d3mon IS the security guard. Notice the language used.

 

BTW...your example of him confirming your movement at night doesn't prove anything if you are mafia too.

 

I said that in my post. A foundation of my plan is that I'm a townie. Everyone will know that after CD night-kills me.

k.. Let me see if I can answer the questions that preston raised in his very long post

 

I know it's possible that you are town and didnt realize that by mentioning the "past game survivor" bit you were letting slip you had a role

I never said that I was a "survivor" from the last round. I just said that I am a character from last round and mentioned that there is atleast one mafia character back from the dead(indicated in mole's game description).

 

I wonder where you got the survivor bit. It fits into my role claim now but I never claimed that because it would indicate that I had one of the three survivor roles from the last round.

 

If you are town, then answer what you meant by your post where you said you would take being lynched with no roleclaim, if you are the security guard.

 

I felt it was pretty awkward to demand a role claim on day 1 and was sure that someone would challenge the need for it. Showing apprehension for a lynch would have indicated that I had a power role and would have provided a target to Mafia for night kill. Well.. all this is pretty moot right now.

 

I also will ask you one last time to provide a PARAPHRASE of your role pm. You have NOT provided this so far. Respond to both of those things quickly and we'll see where it goes.

 

I didn't paraphrase because I felt that if someone didn't trust me now... IMHO once I paraphrased... he would just say that this is only copied from the last round. Still, I have nothing to loose and here it goes

 

 

"After my really bad experience at the swimming pool, I decided to take a job at the irontown supermarket. Unfortunately, since I have a limited skill set.. I got the same job i.e. Security Guard. Once during the game.. I can PM mole and find out the players that moved at night"

 

Now, I wonder if preston can answer one of my questions...

 

Why did you think that I was a survivor from last round? I find that suspicious but again... who cares about my suspicions

All of your posts on D1 doesn't add up. I see no reason why you had to tell everyone that you were a character from the past game. What was the point in doing that? You had 1 vote on you when you laid out that hint. And that vote was a random one as well.

 

It's deadline today. So it's either lynch d3mon, lynch someone else, or no-lynch. I'm never in favour of a no-lynch and someone has to go. Sorry but I'm sticking with my vote on you.

I want people to keep perspective that the behavior isn't a good indicator. If d3mon is scum, how hard would it be to make up a paraphrase? He said it's the same as last time so what more do we need?

 

 

Then tell people to keep perspective, don't say we don't know anything. We know how people have behaved. You may feel it isn't a good indicator, but it is something we know. It may not be much, but it is what we have to work with. My joke about cleaning the floor -which came, btw, from a 7 year job in the local supermarket- is indeed a proof that behaviour may not say everything. But do we really want to lose a full day, and a good guy, just because we don't have any historical data on night actions? From what I have seen, I am convinced that two people (D3mon, and EM) are scum. One of these is the one I vote for.

 

I'd hate to see this day end in a no-vote, and have a goodie die, when in the end, the main suspect turns out to be, indeed, mafia. And anyone who immediately starts the game with pointing fingers, without ANY real grounds, is a clear suspect to me. I don't think accusing people jokingly is a smart idea if you are a townie, but for a baddie, it's great.

 

My vote for D3mon stands strong (knowing that as a propagist of a lynch, I will be a target next day if he turns out to be a townie. That's a chance I am willing to take.)

Deadline's in a few hours.

I can't believe D1 will end in a no lynch. 2 more votes are required to lynch d3mon.

 

Just watch and see that neither d3mon or KevinH will be nightkilled.

Demon still has 4 votes right? That should be enough for half majority deadline lynch.

Demon still has 4 votes right? That should be enough for half majority deadline lynch.

 

You're right. I totally forgot the half-majority on deadline day...which requires only 3 votes.

(Got mixed up cuz of the rules at ODN forums require a majoity lynch on deadline day)

 

OK. Keeping my fingers crossed that we got it right.

Man, can't we just move the deadline forward... the suspense is killing me....

I show CD, TC, cao cao, and ccabal all voting for d3mon. A half majoriy only calls for 3 votes. TC and CD both seem set on the lynch, ccabal and cao cao would both need to unvote.

Oh my... the post above is feeding my suspicion.

TC, your view on me is so twisted I could wish everyone a good weekend and you would think it's suspicious.

EM.. let me try that... everyone have a gr8 weekend... :drinks:

I show CD, TC, cao cao, and ccabal all voting for d3mon. A half majoriy only calls for 3 votes. TC and CD both seem set on the lynch, ccabal and cao cao would both need to unvote.

Yeah...I'm keeping my vote on d3mon. When I think someone is mafia...it's really hard for me to view them as townie. Much like last game where I was convinced you were mafia but turned up townie. It's a flaw in my gameplay.