BTW, I don't think we should discuss the "breadcrumb" idea any longer. Time to do it was on D1 (and we've decided it was bad) and now it's more of a distraction, taking us away from more important problems, like finding scums and confirming townies.

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,
iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,  
Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Mandarijn, King Hitler,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

BTW, I don't think we should discuss the "breadcrumb" idea any longer. Time to do it was on D1 (and we've decided it was bad) and now it's more of a distraction, taking us away from more important problems, like finding scums and confirming townies.

Discussing a strategy for the town is not a waste of time. Just because it's day 2 doesn't mean that it's too late to strategize especially considering that we never actually settled on what we wanted to do on day 1. It's just as important to figure out how we want to share the cop's information before we lose the opportunity. We can still do that while analyzing people's posts.

 

By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it.

 

As far as my reads on everyone else at this point:

 

Whitebeard: Could very well be a townie and has just acted suspiciously without knowing any better. The only way we will get a better read is if he participates more. He is still one of my top suspects based off of posting up to this point.

King Hitler: I am getting a townie feeling from KH right now.

Rhizoctonia: We have seen Rhizo as a scum and as a SK up to this point. His style feels different in this game than the other two. He appears to be genuinely trying to help.

iSocialism: Same activity as usual. Lurking does not help the town. If he is town he needs to post more actively. Unsure at this point but could be scum.

Rafay: Was a little bit more active than usual earlier on. Seems to have dropped back off of the radar now though. Same as with iSoc, if you are town we need you to participate more.

Canik: Fermion didn't get off to a great start but started to seem less suspicious before Canik took over. Canik may have re-hashed the breadcrumb plan but I think that he was just trying to change the proposal to make it a better option for us. Getting people to continue to discuss the best possible town strategy is not a bad thing. We should never stop trying to find the best way to share known information (like we get from the cop). Could be either at this point.

Chaplain of Death: Has been much less active in this game than usual. Could be either.

Imran Ehsan: Seems to be a lot less active than usual. I've seen him in games when he is town and a game when he was scum. As a townie he is usually actively scum hunting. I'm not sure what else he might have going on but this game seems out of the ordinary for him so far. Could be either but if he's town I definitely want to hear more of his thoughts.

Ali bin Turban: Seemed townie on day 1. I'm less certain now. We should definitely be analyzing people's habits and discussing them but that doesn't mean that we abandon strategy at the same time. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. Only scum would want us to get away from strategizing especially since they can't do so together during the day. Could be either but I think this could be the first game we see ABT as scum.

Mandarijn: Has also been less active than usual in this game but I know that he is busy with important things irl right now as well. I still get a generally townie feel from him though.

Vote Count:

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,

King Hitler (1): Rafay,

The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,

Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,

iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,  

Rafay (1): Rhizoctonia,

Canik (0):

Chaplain of Death (0):

Imran Ehsan (0):

Ali bin Turban (0)

Mandarijn (0)

 

No lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Mandarijn, King Hitler,

 

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

Sorry guys RL has been crazy lately. I still havent caught up with reading all the walls of texts yet. Hopefully by tomorrow I will be able to *fingers crossed*

Sounds good. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

 

[OOC] Good luck with whatever has kept you busy IRL. [/OOC]

First of all, to make it clear:

 

1. Canik, your methodology is oversimplified and it hurts your data really bad. For instance real chance of cop getting killed tonight is 25% (They got 12.5% chance to find him via rolecop ability on N1 - if they succeeded then today they'll have 100% kill chance, if not then it'll be 14.3%. So it's 12.5%*100% + 87.5%*14.3% = 25%). That's almost two times higher than you get from your numbers!!

 

2. I've already estimated what's the difference between "crumbing" and not "crumbing": http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/57112-kh-12-sharing-is-caring-mafia-day-2/page-4?do=findComment&comment=856635. For those that are to lazy to click the link, that's the summary:

 

Without our "help" as I've mentioned scums have bit over 50% chance to find who's cop after 3 nights. With our "help" that's probably around 80-90%.

 

If any of you have better numbers, please show me. But make sure they're correct.

 

3. Game lasts 20 days now. We've already discussed many options and now we're going in circles. Nothing new was told, it's all rehashing old ideas that not only are old but also dangerous to the town (and I've not seen anyone yet that would refute my arguments). What's more, now we've those few townies that remain active putting their effort into discussing theories instead of scum hunting. Discussing on what to do is necessary but it's bad when it obstruct the main goal. It's not that cop will win the game for us (and there's 25% chance he's "already" dead...we just don't know it yet). What can we hope for? One more night for the cop if we came with a very smart plan (and for the record, we've not). Reward is quite low for the risk we're taking (by risk I mean not focusing on people).

 

4. Town's free to decide on their own wether my input is useful or detrimental.

 

 

 

 

 

Now to TW's post. My scum-sense was tingling a little when I read his previous posts so I've started poking him. And with each of his answer that scum feeling is getting bigger and bigger.

 

1. It started from his posting style - no substance in it. Just making sure to be seen around.

2. He turns out to be a supporter of that dangerous "breadcrumb" idea. When I point it out he comes with very evasive answer:

 

I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately. We just need activity, participation, and information. We need whatever information that the cop can provide. We can't afford to lose it before it can be shared because otherwise we literally have nothing but instinct to act on (or the slim chance of the jail keeper targeting the correct scum member at night and preventing a kill).
 

Just another hollow statement that we need to be active and cant afford to loose cop. And on top of it, TW does not care what we'll do. Well, I do care and I don't want us to act in a way that will make it easier for the scum.

 

3. His latest post:

 

By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it.

 

That has scum written all around it. There's no arguments, no reasoning here. He's not even trying to discuss (like for instance Lyner did when I poked him), he's just evading with some emotional trick that's supposed to make me feel guilty for suspecting him.

 

Ali bin Turban: Seemed townie on day 1. I'm less certain now. We should definitely be analyzing people's habits and discussing them but that doesn't mean that we abandon strategy at the same time. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. Only scum would want us to get away from strategizing especially since they can't do so together during the day.
Could be either but I think this could be the first game we see ABT as scum.

 

Again, he's not even trying to reason as rational town would do. Rational town is never sure who's who. He'll rather show proofs of his innocence than strike blindly because he knows the risk. No, instead TW looks for an argument to hit me back. And he finds just one and really weak one and use it to come into conclusion I'm a scum. Why do I think it's weak? I believe my actions and participation speak for me (but if anyone has something against me, come out and speak, I'm not afraid to explain myself).

 

I'm looking for a scum. I'm probing people, poking them, because I don't know who they are. I'm not afraid to vote on someone just to put more pressure on him. What's TW's approach? Evade questions and strike back with accusation. At the same time he didn't even have balls to vote on me. Probably afraid to be the first one.

Well since you ask, yea...at this moment I'm starting to have something against you.  You have claimed TW has looked scummy because he said the breadcrumb idea had merit...for which he stated "Canik's proposal had merit."  You're using his liking of a plan you do not like (which I agree with it's a bad plan) as one of the reasons to lynch him, and what first made him suspicious to you...yet you have not done the same for Canik.  Not only that, you say you were "disturbed" by my recent posts because I called out Canik and not TW, for which I've stated I missed.  You called me out for voting Canik for a very reason you suspect TW, and say it's disturbing I vote Canik for this and ignore TW, yet you sit here and ignore Canik but vote TW.  But unlike me who missed your call out of TW, you have seen both people, yet no where have you suspected Canik...yet use a similar reason to vote TW.

 

Your earlier post, when you called out TW for saying Canik's idea had merit, you said you gave the benefit of the doubt to Canik because he hadn't been playing as long and have as much time to think about it.  But now we're day 2, Canik since has been pushing the idea more then anyone, even after people have said that we already discussed why it was bad, and had time to go back and read...but again, you don't suspect him.  Canik was the one who rebrought up the idea, yet you don't jump on the guy who rebrought it up and still fights for it, but the guy who said it had merit.   I'm confused how my posts disturb you because I voted Canik for agreeing with the idea which I think is bad but don't vote TW because I missed it, but you have seen both people agree on the breadcrumb, and even more Canik fight hard for the idea, yet do not vote him, and actually look to take the heat off him.  

 

I'm certainly not sold TW is for sure town, but neither am I Canik.  

 

3. Game lasts 20 days now. We've already discussed many options and now we're going in circles. Nothing new was told, it's all rehashing old ideas that not only are old but also dangerous to the town (and I've not seen anyone yet that would refute my arguments). What's more, now we've those few townies that remain active putting their effort into discussing theories instead of scum hunting. Discussing on what to do is necessary but it's bad when it obstruct the main goal. It's not that cop will win the game for us (and there's 25% chance he's "already" dead...we just don't know it yet). What can we hope for? One more night for the cop if we came with a very smart plan (and for the record, we've not). Reward is quite low for the risk we're taking (by risk I mean not focusing on people).

No one is suggesting that we should obstruct the main goal which we can agree is scum hunting. I just don't agree with your assertion that continuing to discuss strategy somehow has to hinder or detract from our scum hunting efforts. We can do both.

 

 

1. It started from his posting style - no substance in it. Just making sure to be seen around.

 

No substance in it? I suppose we will have to continue to agree to disagree on the merits of debating strategy. I commented on the strategies being presented which is more than most others have done.

 

 

2. He turns out to be a supporter of that dangerous "breadcrumb" idea. When I point it out he comes with very evasive answer:

 

I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately. We just need activity, participation, and information. We need whatever information that the cop can provide. We can't afford to lose it before it can be shared because otherwise we literally have nothing but instinct to act on (or the slim chance of the jail keeper targeting the correct scum member at night and preventing a kill).

 

Just another hollow statement that we need to be active and cant afford to loose cop. And on top of it, TW does not care what we'll do. Well, I do care and I don't want us to act in a way that will make it easier for the scum.

 

I am in favor of a plan that will get us the information that we can from the cop before we lose him. That was the whole purpose of talking strategy. My "I don't care how we decide to do it ultimately" line was saying that I was not necessarily married to the breadcrumb strategy. Not that I don't care what we do overall. You misinterpreted me.

 

As it stands right now all we have done is debate strategy but we have not come to any sort of a general consensus on the best course of action for the town. I saw the merits of the breadcrumb strategy as did several others. More than anything I was absolutely advocating for participation in the discussion. I've seen plenty of people sit there and lurk or be completely inactive in other games. When you're scum, you don't care about pressing the inactives or drawing attention to them. It's better for you to let them sit there and idle because it's fewer people that can hunt for you. A scum may make a post calling for an inactive to be replaced if others are doing so as well but they will mostly prefer not to push the matter or draw consistent attention to it.

 

I have been consistent in calling for more participation and discussion from the inactives. And what do you know, we have people lurking and not saying jack-shit anyway.

 

 

3. His latest post:

 

By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it.

 

That has scum written all around it. There's no arguments, no reasoning here. He's not even trying to discuss (like for instance Lyner did when I poked him), he's just evading with some emotional trick that's supposed to make me feel guilty for suspecting him.

 

Of course this is a line that scum would use. Believe it or not, a townie may just say this same thing when they are being wrongly accused. And yes, that is the case here.

 

 

Ali bin Turban: Seemed townie on day 1. I'm less certain now. We should definitely be analyzing people's habits and discussing them but that doesn't mean that we abandon strategy at the same time. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. Only scum would want us to get away from strategizing especially since they can't do so together during the day.

Could be either but I think this could be the first game we see ABT as scum.

 

Again, he's not even trying to reason as rational town would do. Rational town is never sure who's who. He'll rather show proofs of his innocence than strike blindly because he knows the risk. No, instead TW looks for an argument to hit me back. And he finds just one and really weak one and use it to come into conclusion I'm a scum. Why do I think it's weak? I believe my actions and participation speak for me (but if anyone has something against me, come out and speak, I'm not afraid to explain myself).

 

I am giving my current reads on people and that is how I see you. I don't believe that a townie would reasonably say "abandon strategizing in the name of wild-ass-guessing". That is still all we have to go off right now. And I didn't say ABT is scum. I said that you could be. The scum will want the town to be as disorganized as possible. Encouraging random guessing and leaving the strategy up to chance of each individual only benefits the scum in this game. What if our cop is Whitebeard or King Hitler who are both "new" to mafia? What if the cop didn't understand the importance of making sure that his information is known before he dies? What if they did know that but didn't realize what the best way to do it could be since they have no experience to draw from? That is why we need a plan.

 

 

I'm looking for a scum. I'm probing people, poking them, because I don't know who they are. I'm not afraid to vote on someone just to put more pressure on him. What's TW's approach? Evade questions and strike back with accusation. At the same time he didn't even have balls to vote on me. Probably afraid to be the first one.

 

I didn't vote for you because I still find Whitebeard's actions to be more suspicious than yours. He has not contributed anything to the scum hunt so far other than "I don't care what looks scummy" and the "OPP" posts. At least you have, even though it's off-base. My response to your accusation was to point out that you were exhibiting suspicious behavior yourself in your vote for me.

 

If our cop has any doubts about me he can go ahead and visit me tonight. He won't find scum (unless this encourages the mafia's framer to act and visit me as well) but at least he can confirm another townie which you are likely to do anyway based on the odds. In fact, other than not finding scum, there really isn't a downside to visiting me, either:

1) You will confirm that I'm town and hopefully be able to share it with your other findings before you are targeted by scum.

2) This might encourage the scum to waste one of their night actions by framing me which would be one less action that their role cop will be able to use against us to find our cop.

 

It'd be better if we found a scum with the cop's actions of course, but if you want to clear my name feel free.

At this point, I'm just skimming through the massive walls of text so if I missed something small, don't slaughter me for it. Anyway, here's what I'd like to add. Rhizo definitely has a different play style this game to me. I don't know whether he is changing it up to test the waters with a new style or this is his town style, but Rhizo is coming off as town. I honestly wouldn't clear his name just yet though. I feel the cop should investigate tW. TW isn't coming off as a huge scum feeling for me, but with AbT trying to get a lynch on him since D1 it seems, it'd be the best way to figure out what most likely is going on. If TW is scum, we have 2 options. AbT is a townie with really good perception, or AbT is another scum and they both planned an argument to throw townies off. I don't feel the second option holds much weight in this instance.

 

If TW is a townie, it's clear that AbT is trying to get a lynch on an experienced player first. I do get a huge town feel from AbT and im on the fence about TW.

 

As far as Rhizo and Canik with the bread crumb argument. I don't think reviving the argument would've been a bad idea (since I honestly favored the idea) however, the argument had engulfed most of D2 and left us with nothing. No good assessments can be made imo from the argument. Rhizo has felt the most town like to me (Mandarijn as well) Since D1 and after N1, Rhizo felt even more townie. I'm on the fence about alot of people and I have my speculations as well. Canik did seem to repair Ferm's mistakes upon entering and give off a better vibe, but I'm still a little uncomfortable with how the breadcrumb argument keeps getting brought up consistently. I think it's time to move on from that. I won't vote Canik just yet as I do feel he may be a townie and can't risk a mislynch again.

 

As far as who I feel the most scum like is at the moment.

 

Vote: Rafay.

 

No, it isn't about him voting for me either. Frankly, 1 vote isn't much to worry about. It's the reasoning for the vote. Rafay hasn't contributed much and the only thing he really has posted D2 is trying to get the lurkers to be more active, then he proceeds to go absent it seems. I'd like to hear more from him as far as his thoughts and reasonings on everyone, not just a random vote. Random votes should've stayed in D1.

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler,

Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,

King Hitler (1): Rafay,

The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,

Rhizoctonia (1): Chaplain of Death,

iSocialism (1): Whitebeard,  

Canik (0):

Chaplain of Death (0):

Imran Ehsan (0):

Ali bin Turban (0)

Mandarijn (0)

 

No lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Canik, Mandarijn,

 

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.

Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

unvote

 

Still hoping that you guys learn to cut down on post size. Only quote the parts of people's posts you intend to address, and please be a little more succinct. Text walls will inevitably still happen but we have far more walls than not right now.

 

To be honest i check this thread multiple times a day usually but i doubt I've read half the things said on D2 because of how many walls have been posted.

 

 

1. Canik, your methodology is oversimplified and it hurts your data really bad. For instance real chance of cop getting killed tonight is 25% (They got 12.5% chance to find him via rolecop ability on N1 - if they succeeded then today they'll have 100% kill chance, if not then it'll be 14.3%. So it's 12.5%*100% + 87.5%*14.3% = 25%). That's almost two times higher than you get from your numbers!!

Um, I'm not sure it really works that way. I mean, it would if you were trying to find the chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow but.. either they did find him or they didn't find him last night. If they did, then it's a 100% chance he dies.. if they didn't then it seems like it should revert back to my numbers for the actual chance during the night.

Basically, you may be right that the overall chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow is 25%, but I don't think they necessarily reflects his actual chances during the night. You get what I'm saying? It's tough to explain. xD

It's kinda like when people argue when you flip a coin 5 times and it's been tails every time, should the next chance be MORE likely to finally be heads or is it still a pure 50/50% chance? (not exactly like that but best metaphor I can think of)

Either way, I am about done debating it because we do need to start discussing other things (these a very long days tho so we still have time).. and I feel like enough people just aren't going to unite behind it and follow through.

---

Hmm.. now who to add pressure to. Rhizo & AbT stand out a bit to me because while it does appear they're trying to help, I'm not sure that they are. How quick Rhizo's opening and lengthy attack on my also seemed almost planned but, at least they're talking and active.

Imran & CoD are much less active than usual, worth keeping an eye on but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

Rafay & Whitehead are both quite inactive and need to get participate more, definitely encourage pressure on them. At least they've made votes and a couple of posts though.

iSocialism however is still the least active. Not voting at all, don't think he's posted at all today.

I think Whitehead & iSocialism are probably the best choices for now.

Vote: iSocialism

TW I'm still leaning towards town on him. KH/Mandarjin no reads yet

 

I'll answer Rhizo for now (since it's morning and I'm of to work). I felt disturbed because you were confirmed townie in my eyes. But then you've explained your actions and I'm not worrying about you any more . 

 

Secondly I'm not basing my vote on just breadcrumb stance. That would be very naive of me to think someone's a scum just because he supports it. It's sort of circumstantial evidence that may lead somewhere but does not mean much on it's own. So why I'm not jumping on Canik for it?

 

In my eyes there's a big difference between Canik and TW. Canik is new, may have missed some posts, etc (so he got benefit of a doubt at the beginning). Secondly when you ask Canik why has he chosen to support it, he starts explaining it, shows some numbers. He's working on the idea, putting some effort. Maybe I've weakness for people that use reason, but Canik feels genuine in his efforts, even though I don't agree with them. Finally as I said, breadcrumbing is to little for me to believe someone's a scum...and I believe there's nothing more we could accuse him of (please correct me if I'm wrong).

 

As for TW, I don't really know why he supports it and it's suspicious to me. I'm trying to ask him about it and I get some evasive answers, emotional trips and accusations.

 

 

 

Um, I'm not sure it really works that way. I mean, it would if you were trying to find the chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow but.. either they did find him or they didn't find him last night. If they did, then it's a
100% chance he dies.. if they didn't then it seems like it should revert back to my numbers for the actual chance during the night.

Basically, you may be right that the overall chance of cop showing up dead tomorrow is 25%, but I don't think they necessarily reflects his actual chances during the night. You get what I'm saying? It's tough to
explain. xD

Just a short explanation: You seem to be basing your numbers on a one-kill per night behavior with no other factors included. But here we got another factor - a mafia rolecop,
that basically doubles their effectiveness in finding our cop. Secondly we don't know it they find him or not, so that's why we're measuring chances with probability.

On N1 one mafia "finding out who's the cop" chances were approximately 2times more than "killing the cop" (due to rolecop ability and to the fact that killing = finding out). But on the next nights they'll be basically the same since mafia will have rolecop result from previous night (which may have found our cop).

Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12. Vote Count: Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler; iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik; Whitebeard (1): The Warrior; King Hitler (1): Rafay; The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban; Rhizoctonia (0); Canik (0); Chaplain of Death (0); Imran Ehsan (0); Ali bin Turban (0); Mandarijn (0); No lynch (0); Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline. Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

(I thought y'all might enjoy another wall of text)

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): Rhizoctonia, King Hitler,
iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik,
Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Ali bin Turban,
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Mandarijn, Chaplain of Death,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

Well I managed to skim through most of it. I need to go back and look at some of the more suspicious posts again but that can be done later.

 

My thoughts,

 

i. Lyner was targetted because he was keeping a low profile. Scum thought he may be cop. Agreed on this part with ABT. 

ii. Lyner also was suspicious of TW and Rhizo. So its also possible one (or both) TW or Rhizo is scum and with Lyner acting like a cop (see point i) scum new there is a very big chance they will get investigated and hence caught as scum. So they could not take that chance and had to take out Lyner. If this is true one (or both) of TW and Rhizo is scum.

iii. I agree with some of the others who are saying that TW is playing pretty similarly when he was scum in his previous games while Rhizo is playing a bit differently (a bit more pro town). But both these guys has by now plenty of opportunity to know what to expect when they are scum so it is possible they have fine tuned their strategies to look "more town". This is specially true for Rhizo who was lynched as scum in his last 2 games while TW was never caught in one of his games.

iv. Personally I am getting town vibes from Rhizo, mainly because he pointed out the flaw in the breadcrumbs theory on D1. So either he has really fine tuned his strategy to look town this time around or he is town for once.

 

Conclusion: TW is number 1 suspect

 

Now, Lets look at the lynch wagon.

 

Robert2424 (4): Mandarijn, Rafay, Chaplain of Death, King Hitler,

 

I thought the Robert lynch was pretty bad, We should not be lynching complete inactives. Lurkers are better choices for D1 and there are plenty of them in this game: iSoc, Rafay and Whitebeard. But still ppl went off to lynch the completely inactive Robert which I found disturbing. The hammer vote was given by King Hitler. I have found some of his posts a but scummy as well.

 

Conclusion: KH is number 2 suspect

 

In Day 2 we really should not be going for lynching another inactive person. These are safe lynches for scum. Anyone pushing to do this on D2 is scummy in my eyes. Whitebeard appears to be a crappier version of Rafay. So while lynching him or Rafay probably wont hurt the town much, it will also not give much info to the tow for scum hunting. People voting for  low profile players are suspects

 

TW and KH both fall in this category.

 

Third scum may be one of the lurkers iSoc or Rafay. I doubt WhiteBeard is scum. A scum wont be posting complete nonsense now and then to draw attention to himself They would try to keep a very low profile like iSocialism.

 

Vote: The Warrior

 

At the moment, I am getting the most town vibes from ABT and I also agree with most of his points, so I will follow him with the TW vote (in addition to my suspicion of him)

 

 

ii. Lyner also was suspicious of TW and Rhizo. So its also possible one (or both) TW or Rhizo is scum and with Lyner acting like a cop (see point i) scum new there is a very big chance they will get investigated and hence caught as scum. So they could not take that chance and had to take out Lyner. If this is true one (or both) of TW and Rhizo is scum.

 

Lyner mentioned very late on day 1 (~13 hours before deadline) that he was suspicious of me. If I was scum, killing him at night would be the stupidest thing I could have done. What would be gained by me killing Lyner exactly? With only one person saying I felt scummy up to that point I wasn't in any danger of being lynched. The only thing killing Lyner would do would be to immediately make me a suspect. If I was scum I would have been better served to get rid of someone like ABT or you (knowing your play style even though you weren't doing much yet).

 

And again I'm not afraid of the cop investigating me. If he wants to clear my name, I welcome it. The odds are that he would have found another townie anyway. He may as well clear my name in the process to help us avoid a mislynch so that we aren't at even more of a disadvantage.

 

If I am investigated, one of the following will happen:

1) He confirms that I am a townie and shows that those pushing for me are either misguided or scum. Either way it gives us more to work off of moving forward.

2) The mafia chooses to have their framer use one of their night actions to frame me which is one less action their role cop can use to find our cop.

 

The only downside to the cop investigating me tonight is that it would be a waste of one of his actions that could be used to actually find scum.

 

Since Lyner's suspicions were called into question let's analyze them:

-Votes for Rafay (post #30) because of his lurking habits.

-Votes no lynch (post #84) because he doesn't want to lynch the cop.

-Votes for Fermion (post #141) to follow Imran's lead.

-ABT votes for Lyner (post #152) calling into question his actions. This sets off a series of exchanges between the two.

-Lyner says that he won't forget about ABT pushing for him in later days (post #164).

-Votes no lynch but mentions Rafay's activity and notes that he has gone inactive again after he's out of the spotlight and says TW and Rhizo feel a bit scummy (post #188).

 

So there could be several reasons why Lyner was targeted at night:

1) Rafay is scum and figured that Lyner would eventually end up voting to lynch him at a later time.

2) Canik (Fermion) is scum and didn't like being called out by Lyner. This option is highly unlikely since Lyner claimed that he was just following Imran's lead and ended up unvoting for him. It's doubtful that Canik would have held this grudge.

3) ABT is scum and thought Lyner could be the cop or killed him because of Lyner's comment about not forgetting about ABT's attempt to lynch him in the later days.

4) TW or Rhizo is scum and killed Lyner because of his comment about us feeling scummy. As mentioned above, this scenario would have been completely foolish to go through with. A passing comment about either of us feeling scummy would have been a bad reason to kill him, especially when the comment was still going to be fresh in everyone's mind since it was made only ~13 hours before deadline.

5) Someone else thought that Lyner was the cop and pushed the scum to target him. 

6) Lyner was targeted because he is an experienced player. This reason is also unlikely because other experienced players were far more active up to that point.

 

If Lyner was targeted by someone that had a negative interaction with him on day 1 it is far more likely that it was someone that actually believed Lyner had a reason to pressure them at a later time. If that was the case that would leave Rafay or ABT. Based off of Rafay's habits I think that he is the better candidate there but the exchange between Lyner and ABT keeps ABT on that list as well in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

People voting for low profile players are suspects TW and KH both fall in this category.

 

Third scum may be one of the lurkers iSoc or Rafay. I doubt WhiteBeard is scum. A scum wont be posting complete nonsense now and then to draw attention to himself They would try to keep a very low profile like iSocialism.

 

You say that people voting for low profile players are suspects but then go on to say that one of the scum could be a lurker like iSoc or Rafay. Isn't lurking a way to keep a low profile? If you think that one of the lurkers can be scum then making a blanket statement that "voting for low profile players makes you a suspect" doesn't make sense.

 

This is whitebeard's first game. We have no idea what his play style looks like. A "seasoned" scum wouldn't post complete nonsense and draw attention to himself, a new player might. My standing vote for Whitebeard is based off of his existing posts because they are still the most suspicious.

 

And again I'm not afraid of the cop investigating me. If he wants to clear my name, I welcome it. The odds are that he would have found another townie anyway. He may as well clear my name in the process to help us avoid a mislynch so that we aren't at even more of a disadvantage.

 

If I am investigated, one of the following will happen:

1) He confirms that I am a townie and shows that those pushing for me are either misguided or scum. Either way it gives us more to work off of moving forward.

2) The mafia chooses to have their framer use one of their night actions to frame me which is one less action their role cop can use to find our cop.

 

The only downside to the cop investigating me tonight is that it would be a waste of one of his actions that could be used to actually find scum.

I'll cut my responses not to make wall of text. What you propose is extremely bad idea. As a matter of fact you're literally asking cop to waste his action.

What is investigation worth with the knowledge that framer can alter its results if he pleases so? If you get scum result, you'll argue you got framed. If you get town result I won't believe (and probably not only me) it because of the blatant setup that is possible here.

 

To be honest I'm pretty sure all scums would love to spend 3 of their actions to get confirmed as town. Why to be in a hurry of finding cop when you got shielded from him?

 

You get another scumpoint in my eyes for this idea.

 

Also what's up with that constant repeating that you're town and we should not waste our time on you? What kind of argument is that? Or maybe you are asking us to trust you?

 

 

Lyner mentioned very late on day 1 (~13 hours before deadline) that he was suspicious of me. If I was scum, killing him at night would be the stupidest thing I could have done. What would be gained by me killing Lyner exactly? With only one person saying I felt scummy up to that point I wasn't in any danger of being lynched. The only thing killing Lyner would do would be to immediately make me a suspect. If I was scum I would have been better served to get rid of someone like ABT or you (knowing your play style even though you weren't doing much yet).

 

You ignored the scenario I posted. If you were scum and you thought Lyner was the cop (because of his keeping a low profile) and him posting clearly that you and Rhizo look suspicious to him, you would think there is a high probability of Cop Lyner to investigate you at night. So, even though you knew killing him will put you on the spotlight on the next day it is still better than the cop investigating you and confirming 100% you are scum. In this scenario, taking out the cop is a lot more beneficial to the town instead of other active players who are scum hunting. Me and ABT had pretty much indicated on Day 1 that we are VTs..i think someone else did too but I cant remember now...so we were not at the top the scum hit list.

 

 

You say that people voting for low profile players are suspects but then go on to say that one of the scum could be a lurker like iSoc or Rafay. Isn't lurking a way to keep a low profile? If you think that one of the lurkers can be scum then making a blanket statement that "voting for low profile players makes you a suspect" doesn't make sense.

 

I said voting to lynch another lurker/inactive on D2 is not a good idea. We should try to get a lynch which gives us more info to scum hunt on D3. Whitebeard is a very safe lynch. If he turns up town you can say.."oh well..he was posting so scummily, you cant blame us for lynching him". He may very well be scum as the other lurkers iSoc or Rafay, but he should not be the lynch target on D2 is my point. We try to take out the active scums first and theres a couple of them at least I think.

O the two scum have come out to play. I will be going into detail of the contradictions later when I'm at a computer. For now

 

Unvote

Responding further to TW. I see you're defending your argument that:

 

"By all means ABT, go ahead and continue your quest to have me lynched. I'm sure that the mafia will appreciate you wasting your time and everyone else's. The rest of the town on the other hand will not appreciate it."

 

I don't see why a town would use this argument (desperate one, sure - desperate ones tend to make desperate moves). It has no discussion value, it's just an emotional attack. Town that's wrongly accused will try to explain his motives and reasoning because it's natural for him. He's not afraid because he's done nothing wrong - after all he's a town. Scum does not have that comfort (obviously he can't explain his motives) so he's prone to respond emotionally.

 

Just imagine everyone how easy it is for you to explain yourself when you know you're not guilty...and how hard it becomes when you can't force yourself to admit mistake.

 

Secondly, I don't see you pressing people to post. Posting "People need to post more" or stating obvious facts "iSocialism is lurking, he could be a scum" is no pressure. That's just repeating what everyone thinks. What did you do about Lyner apart from writing "Lyner needs to post more" i one of your many summaries? Did it make Lyner post more? Or maybe it was me who prodded him and forced into more active stance? 

You're forced to be active, because everyone would notice your lurking instantly (it would be extremely odd for a generally active person to lurk) so you're active in a way that gives town little benefits.

 

Thirdly your theories about me are extremely weak.

 

1. During D1 I spend a lot of time on theory-craft and after 20 days when I make a statement on D2 that we finally need to start focusing on people instead of theories that's a proof I'm in your eyes trying to disorganize town? Why would I spend a lot of time before on trying to organize town then? Care to explain that?

Also that "wild-ass-guessing", as you call scum hunting, is the very essence of mafia and we will not get away from it, because cop won't be able to find every scum for us. It surely hasn't stopped you from reassuring everyone that you're ready to jump on robert's bandwagon should there be less votes than required to lynch him.

 

2. Your other theory:

 

ABT is scum and thought Lyner could be the cop or killed him because of Lyner's comment about not forgetting about ABT's attempt to lynch him in the later days.

 

Are you're suggesting that I've started to poke Lyner at the end of the day just to kill him at night? Or maybe you're suggesting that I've got scared by his remark so much that I've killed him? Also isn't that contradicting with your other statement that was supposed to prove you're town because of your "activity"??

 

When you're scum, you don't care about pressing the inactives or drawing attention to them. It's better for you to let them sit there and idle because it's fewer people that can hunt for you.

 

Finally, you've been on Fermion's bandwagon (to be clear, I was 3rd), jumped as a 4th one  - quite a safe number, to stay away from the heat should he turn out not to be a town (coupled with that you were not pressing him). You're also constantly reminding us about Whitebeard. This is not much on it's own, but I'm mentioning that to show that If you turn out to be scum, those two are most likely to be confirmed townies (Canik for sure, Whitebeard less so).

Theres another reason that Lyner could have been targetted. One scum tactic is to kill the obvious person and then claim that you are being setup because nobody in their right mind would make them self look so suspicious. I've done it before. The fact that you dropped that line just makes is sound scummier to me, though it could indeed be a setup, I tend to agree with ABT and Imran analysis of your recent posts and play style (i.e. you asking the cop to investigate you when it literally wastes the cop's action because scum have a framer.)

 

vote TW

Vote Count:

The Warrior (3): Ali bin Turban, Imran Ehsan, Chaplain of Death,
iSocialism (2): Whitebeard, Canik,
Rafay (1): King Hitler,
Whitebeard (1): The Warrior,
King Hitler (1): Rafay,
Rhizoctonia (0):
Canik (0):
Chaplain of Death (0):
Imran Ehsan (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Mandarijn (0)

No lynch (0):

Not voting: iSocialism, Mandarijn, Rhizoctonia,

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 13:00 EDT Sunday, June 12.

Please note that Mafia Framer can only force a "guilty" result on a townie, not an "innocent" result on a mafia (which is the Tailor or Lawyer role).
 

Welp this can be a quick game if town was smart, 2 scum have revealed themselves.

 

Let's start with #1

 

ABT

 

I asked ABT why he suspected TW because he said Canik's idea had merit, but yet still hasn't suspected Canik, this even after Canik continues to push for it come D2.  You didn't answer it, you mostly beat around the bush and then repeat what you already said, which I even indicated.  You said one of the reasons was Canik was new to it, that he maybe not had enough time to read everything.  For this, I can agree with a bit and it's a legitimate reason, though I still think he likely did, he read enough to know about the whole idea...me calling out the holes of it was only a few posts past it.  But that goes out the window when it's D2, he's had time, and Canik still is the one trying to push it.  You haven't called him out, you haven't suspected him, you if anything have been passive with him.  Now you can say your vote isn't merely on something agreeing with the breadcrumb idea, but in fact, that's the very reason and only reason you suddenly suspected TW.  You only suspected him because he said Canik's idea (not even TW's idea) had merit.  Yet, Canik keep pushing and that doesn't seem suspicious to you.  If it is for 1 person, it should be for another.  Everything else you've done is try beyond hard to look at ways of making TW's responses look scummy.  

 

Scum Hunting - You're not scum hunting, you're not trying to get people active, all you're doing is trying incredibly hard to find a way to make anything TW says as scummish.  You've taken it beyond too far, you literally take apart everything and try to make it scummish.  All you've done is spent this whole day trying to make it all about TW, so worse case secnerio the whole day is you too arguing and TW is left as the only option.  This was the exact thing that happened to me when I was a SK, it was all about me and at the end of the day, it was the only option to go off of.  That's all you're doing...just trying to make this all about TW.  You're not looking to find scum, your fixated on one person.

 

You call out TW for saying for a cop to invesitagte him.  You're already looking for a way to setup him as scum no matter what.  Again, you are pushing a lynch on TW beyond hard.

 

've come before forum failure, but Rhizo's wall of text has broken my morale and forced me to retreat   (not that I'm much better with posting a lot). There's a lesson to learn from recent events for everyone. Never make a replacement at the end of the day on a guy that risks getting lynched. We'd be much better of lynching Fermion and getting Canik to replace Robert. But that's past no

 

 

Really?  That I find funny because where was your vote on Fermion/Canik at the end?  O that's right, it was no where to be seen.  If you thought it was such a better idea to  lynch Fermion over Robert...why did you switch it off him, or vote with me before deadline for Fermion?  O and don't say you took it off Fermion because Canik took over and he was active...you took your vote off him before he was even replaced.  At the end of the day, your vote was on Lyner...a wasted vote, as no one besides you suspected him, and you now say Fermion would of been better, but you failed to change.  No, instead you hid from the lynch vote because you knew Robert was town and didn't want to be involved in a lynching of a town.

 

You and Imran want to agree with the reason why Lyner got lynched.  I find it to be a bunch of crap.  The reason he likely got lynched was to look to push suspicion on me or TW.  Now, you'd have a hard time pushing it on me, as I was adamant against lynching Robert who was found to be town from early on.  So who does that leave, TW, and looky there, here is Imran/ABT looking to use Lyner as a reason to push a lynch on TW...because your fairy tale reason Lyner got hit.  No, I completely disagree, I played as scum in another, and I know many wanted to get the likes of ABT/Imran/Mand out quickly for their experience and activity...and yet that didn't happen.  I find it more suspicious you two especially weren't lynched...instead of someone who wasn't all the active.  

 

inally, you've been on Fermion's bandwagon (to be clear, I was 3rd), jumped as a 4th one  - quite a safe number, to stay away from the heat should he turn out not to be a town (coupled with that you were not pressing him)

 

 

Lol?  Another failed attempt.  Is no way being 4th on Fermion bandwagon is not even close to being safer.  In actuality, Imran is now using KH jumping on 4th on Robert as a reason to suspect him.  Jumping on 3rd is a lot safer then being the last one, the needed 4th vote.  

 

Also what's up with that constant repeating that you're town and we should not waste our time on you? What kind of argument is that? Or maybe you are asking us to trust you?

 

I don't know, imagine the fact you're wasting time trying to push a lynch on him instead of an actual scum...maybe because you're scum.  You're the one keep saying he's not town and trying to change everything he says around...of course he has to try to plead he's town because you keep suggesting different.

 

Nothing factual to back this up of course, but I get town vibes from Imran (and AbT/TW too)

 

 

Imagine that, 2 of the people I suspect are people came out instantly as town.  This was the very reason I wanted to lynch Canik, because this would give me a good idea if Canik was trying to just give him scum buddies some Town cred, while throwing a townie in the mix as well.  See if Canik was lynched and found to be town, they probably would get some heat off them...yet neither pushed for it, and we went Robert who told us nothing.

 

 

Now onto person #2

 

Imran

 

Imran is the individual who posts more then anyone when he's town.  Yet this game, he suddenly has gone inactive yet pops back up when there is a needed push on TW.  Now, we all have real life, I know this, but yet two other games where real life was the culprit for me not posting I wasn't given the benefit of the doubt.  In fact, ABT pushed hard for me for that very reason because there was no issue with lynching me, I wasn't scum hunting or anything.  In fact, I even made a post during the day that my real life was busy, just like Imran did, yet wasn't given the benefit of the doubt.  I was forced to be active in those games because If I didn't I was for sure dead and I gave up little time I had with my wife for it.  Even this very game, ABT called out how he hates when people try to use the "real life" excuse for not posting, for which I called him out for.  But yet, Imran has sat here not posting, and ABT hasn't gone after him like he did me in other games.  If I'm not gonna get the benefit of the doubt in other games, do you think I am going to give someone who wouldn't for me?  No, Imran has been on these boards, he found the time to make a thread about Game of Thrones through this all, and hasn't posted anything but now suddenly pops out when ABT needs momentum to kill TW.  Yea, awful convenient.  

 

Now let's dig into Imran.  Imran is the one who always pushes a lynch D1, yet was no where to be found on D1 for who got lynched, he in fact voted off someone who didn't stand a chance to get lynched instead of jumping on Robert.  He in fact, took his vote off Fermion just so he wouldn't maybe get a late lynch on him.  His reasoning, it's better to lynch a totally inactive one then an active one.  So if you felt it was better to lynch an inactive one, why didn't you vote Robert?  Why did you make sure to take your vote of Fermion/Canik?  O, because you didn't want to be associated with the lynch of a townie, and now look to turn that around on KH because he was the deciding vote.  Now we're day 2, now Imran is all against voting a lurker or an inactive person, and instead wants to go after an active player.  His reasoning to not vote Canik Day 1 was because he rather an inactive over and active, now Day 2 comes, and it's the exact opposite.  You had the opportunity to not vote an inactive on Day 1, you had the opportunity to vote someone who would give us something as well as likely help clear your name, but no you didn't...voting an inactive one in your book is better then voting an active one...yet now it's not.

 

 said voting to lynch another lurker/inactive on D2 is not a good idea. We should try to get a lynch which gives us more info to scum hunt on D3.

 

 

Why not do the same Day 1?  Why not use the lynch to gain information.  What does lynching an inactive or a lurker give us for day 2?  I pointed out several benefits of lynching Canik and information we could gain, you ignored it and voted a lurker who would of gave us the same information we got from Robert.  

 

We try to take out the active scums first and theres a couple of them at least I think.

 

 

Of course scum would want the active ones out first, what are they left with...whitebeard who rarely posts, Rafay and Isocialism who are quiet...yea easy win

 

I have found some of his posts a but scummy as well.

 

 

So elaborative on what posts of KH made him scummy.  KH has looked more townie then most, I find this funny.  

 

Me and ABT had pretty much indicated on Day 1 that we are VTs..i think someone else did too but I cant remember now...so we were not at the top the scum hit list.

 

 

This just takes the cake though.  If anyone thinks Imran is town after this, then we are doomed to lose.

 

1.  I don't remember anyone giving off that vibe

2.  Why in the hell would a VT do that, that would literally be the stupidest move and only helps scum

3.  This is obvious attempt to explain why Imran/ABT are getting lynched at night.

 

I didn't see anyone suggest such, and if in fact you did that as a VT, then you do not want to win.  Why in the hell would a VT indicate they're a VT on day 1...for which you're suggesting 2 of you did, possibly a 3rd.  This would knock out 3 people the scum already do not have to fool with, making the chance of not only finding the cop but other power roles that much easier.  After day 1 and the mislynch on Robert, the town would not have to worry about 3 people, with 2 chances of finding a power role N1.  Like seriously?  This alone would be the most unhelpful possible thing ever...to save yourselves, a VT by indicating it, and instead helping scum hit a PR more.  You know better then doing that if you're in fact a VT.  All this is, is you trying to make up an excuse on why the two of you won't be getting killed at night so when it happens people aren't questioning it, or get it down enough where it wont matter anymore.  

 

Vote: Imran

 

If people can't really see my last point especially makes Imran highly suspicious, the rest of town do not want to win.  Either it's his attempt to make an excuse of why Imran/ABT aren't being lynched at night when really they're scum, or he really is a VT and has only looked to help Scum by trying to indicate he is a VT.  Either way, neither are good, and he's gotta go.  And if he's found to be scum...it just helps the case that ABT is as well, as they're working together.  

 

Scum = Imran, ABT

 

The 3rd scum = At this point it's pointing at Canik or Whitebeard.  

3.  This is obvious attempt to explain why Imran/ABT are getting lynched at night.

 

 

*Aren't