I read back through all of Kevins posts and didn't see any posts where Kevin defended d3mon. What are you two talking about?

 

Read KevinH post before mine where I said he seemed to be defending him. Not once does he even suggest that d3mon is mafia false roleclaiming townie to save his own skin. His posts already assumes that d3mon is townie.

 

In a previous post, KevinH mentions that he has a small weak townie power role. I find that extremely odd. Why was there a need for KevinH to share that info? Was it to deflect the attention d3mon was currently attracting?

 

VOTE COUNT

d3mon (3): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, Preston

ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango

KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez

TerrorChrist (2): CaoCao, d3mon

Electric Mango (1): TerrorChrist

 

No Lynch (1): KevinH

 

Not Voting (0):

 

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

Edited April 12, 201115 yr by molestargazer

If the full role-claim is made, we need to decide if we believe it.

 

The mafia will know whether he's a townie or not.

Why does it seem that KevinH is defending d3mon so much?

Read KevinH post before mine where I said he seemed to be defending him. Not once does he even suggest that d3mon is mafia false roleclaiming townie to save his own skin. His posts already assumes that d3mon is townie.

 

Deciding if we believe it implies d3mon lied and might be scum.

 

The "or not" is the suggestion that d3mon might be scum.

 

I think there's a 3/11 chance that d3mon might be scum.

Deciding if we believe it implies d3mon lied and might be scum.

 

The "or not" is the suggestion that d3mon might be scum.

 

I think there's a 3/11 chance that d3mon might be scum.

And that's where I get the impression that you were defending him. You use very vague words that are un-assuming. See Preston's post compared to your post. Preston clearly suggests d3mon could be mafia but you do not.

I think there is an 8/11 chance that d3mon is townie.

 

Call that a defense if you will but I'd do the same for anybody.

@Preston: contrary to what you stated earlier, I have not only been asking questions, but I have also stated my position on D3mon a while ago. For me, there are two suspects, Electronic_Mango (whom I voted for before), and D3mon.

 

Both are strong suspects for me, so either of them would get my vote in the end.

 

As I prefer my vote to not go lost, I will shift my vote from the first suspect to the second.

 

Unvote

Vote: D3mon

Let's not have any more votes on d3mon until he's given a chance to respond. I'm not sure what the vote count on him is but it's got to be close to six and I don't want to lose a potential power role due to people jumping the gun.

 

D3mon, it's time to lay it all on the line as it looks like your head is on the chopping block.

I would have to say that scum has really played well..

 

I claim that I am the security guard. Does this change anything?

 

P.S. I will be out of town tomorrow.. so might not be able to post. Have fun discussing if my claim is true.

A quick scan shows that d3mon has 4 votes (ccabal, CD, Preston and TC).

I would have to say that scum has really played well..

 

I claim that I am the security guard. Does this change anything?

 

P.S. I will be out of town tomorrow.. so might not be able to post. Have fun discussing if my claim is true.

Convenient that you would claim a much needed townie power role. If the real cop outs you...then he'd be exposed.

 

I suspect you are lying (given your non-chalent post of having fun discussing if your claim is true).

 

My vote on you remains.

I find it very interesting that my first suspect is now calling upon people to not vote on my second suspect....

I hate weekends so that normal i haven't been here

 

i agree there is still a slim chance he is telling the truth but more than likely he is lying

I agree with CD and Nerau, d3mons roleclaim doesn't look that strong.

I agree with CD and Nerau, d3mons roleclaim doesn't look that strong.

That's because it's not. He could have easily paraphrased his role to persuade us to reconsider. The lack of detail provided for a very important townie power role leads me to believe that he is lying.

I would have to say that scum has really played well..

 

I claim that I am the security guard. Does this change anything?

 

P.S. I will be out of town tomorrow.. so might not be able to post. Have fun discussing if my claim is true.

I'm going to hold to my earlier statement and unvote pending analysis of this roleclaim... it seems like EM/CD have already gotten started, but with THIS role being claimed... damn

 

Unvote

 

Okay, analysis:

 

d3mon could be scum with a bold claim, he could be town with a fake claim to try and stay alive, or he could be town with a real claim.

For sake of sanity I'm going to ignore the townie/fake role case: he already had a post about preferring death to roleclaim, and to change that around to a lie I feel is less likely. Plus if he's town, at this point lying would be anti-town; Im HOPING he wouldnt make that mistake!

 

d3mon as scum

1) This roleclaim has no detail on it. He could have taken the name from peoples' posts and/or the previous game thread.

2) It's a major role that would cripple the town if lost, so it's designed to try and make people not lynch him. 1/11 odds of him actually HAVING this role.

3) In all of our analysis we've basically said that he'd probably need to claim a major role to be potentially kept alive - this qualifies.

4) Per CD's post the real cop can't counterclaim without exposing themselves - and no I would NOT suggest that they do so since we dont know if we have a protective role or not.

5) For supposedly having security guard, he waited a LONG time to actually say it - more importantly he said he would choose death on turn 1 with no roleclaim. If youre the security guard, WHY would you do that??

6) That "have fun discussing if my claim is true" makes me wonder if he's messing with us.

 

d3mon as town

1) His earlier reference to "survivor from previous game" is consistent with him being security guard if true

2) His having this role would somewhat explain his increased reluctance to roleclaim.

3) Claiming security guard is risky because it risks counterclaim from any other investigative role/cop. We may not have a cop this game that EXACTLY matches the cop from last game, but the presence of any other role would almost certainly expose this as a false claim. Granted the cop cant counterclaim for fear of exposing themselves, but it's still a risky thing for scum to pull.

 

Odds of d3mon having THIS ability are slim, but it IS possible. The obvious question is can this ability be tested in any meaningful way.

 

IF we let d3mon live, that mean he has to at minimum have night 1 to use this ability; he would present results on day 2. Scum would very probably try to kill him (if he's town), and for the sake of the test our protective doc (if any) would have to TRY and protect d3mon. Ironically this is the scenario where the doc from last game would have been useful; let d3mon die, and if he WAS the guard then revive him to report results.

 

The problems with this scenario:

1) If d3mon is scum with a role fighting to stay alive, we're letting him use that role instead of preventing it.

2) We dont know if we have a doc. If we DO, then we're forcing him to protect a specific target, which means scum would be free to target ANYONE else; probably CD or some other veteran whose absence would hurt the town.

3) If d3mon's security guard follows the profile from last game, then the report may contain false positives; i.e. lynching a townie based on his info wouldn't completely disprove his role. Only a scum lynch resulting from his info would even remotely prove it, and even then it could be a sacrifice to fake-prove him town.

4) Based on the above, we'd be forced into letting a potential scum dictate a pool of candidates for our day 2 lynch.

 

When a cop roleclaims unprompted with results to report, the fact that they did not HAVE to roleclaim contributes to their potential trustworthiness - which is later proven/disproven by the accuracy of their named targets, or alternately after they die. Unless d3mon has some kind of a day cop role, there is no possible way he could already have results - and if he DID he would have said so already and made day 1 a LOT easier (which why I dont think mole would make such a role). With this degree of suspicion already on him, I have difficulty seeing a valid way to test d3mon's security guard claim that doesnt screw over the town.

 

My gut reaction is that we cannot test this without exposing the town to crazy levels of potential harm, which is horrible because of how severe the damage will be if this role is real. A nice choice for your fake claim, if scum; but you failed to follow through by providing detail/paraphrasing your role as we'd previously asked you to do.

 

I still want to see d3mon give us specifics about what his claimed role provides; limits, etc. If he dies and is security guard after all, knowing what he WOULD have been able to provide may give us context to understand the rest of this game (i.e. last game the mechanic seemed to be 'movement' and lots of one-shot roles - hence someone claiming insomniac/moving made sense).

 

I'm willing to wait the day until d3mon returns to get this answer, but I'm fairly sure he's still going to get my vote after that.

 

Ive already seen CD/EM's initial responses, but I'd like peoples' thoughts on this - having our cop potentially hang in the balance is huge.

 

-Preston

I'm going to type "I told you so" in all caps if the claimed security guard gets lynched.

 

A priori odds are 1/11 but that changes if there is no counterclaim.

 

The odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 200 million, but eventually somebody does win.

I'm going to type "I told you so" in all caps if the claimed security guard gets lynched.

 

A priori odds are 1/11 but that changes if there is no counterclaim.

 

The odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 200 million, but eventually somebody does win.

That's fine. I'll say "I told you so" when he turns up mafia.

3/11 chance that I don't have to type in all caps; 8/11 chance that I will.

Well, if we lynch d3mon and he DOES turn out to be the security guard, this game will rapidly turn into a train wreck. But as Preston stated, there's no real way to verify his townieness, and following a potential scum's lead could be even more dangerous.

 

The problem is that d3mon has been acting increasingly suspiciously so far. If he's not mafia...well, he's not playing townie right (no offense intended)

If lynching d3mon proved that he was actually a townie (cop or anything else being a mute point), CD would be very high on my list of suspects afterwards. Unlike Kevin and Preston he doesn't seem to want to talk about the claim, just wants d3mon to be lynched.

If lynching d3mon proved that he was actually a scum, Kevin would be very high on my list of suspects afterwards. He has reiterated multiple times that he thinks d3mon is a townie and would make me think he was trying to protect him.

 

However at this point I think it comes down to the specifics of d3mon's role which he for some reason did not reveal. Either this is because he is saving it to keep the actual scum from knowing if they need to kill him or not, or this is because it is a fake claim and he is using his day away from the forums to come up with an idea amongst his fellow scum.

 

Would it be worthwhile to consider a no-lynch in order to give d3mon a chance to prove himself (if it is like in last game he will be able to tell who moved and any who are townie would be able to prove it) or have the mafia kill him. If there is a doc who can revive for a day like last time we will still have his results.

(...)

 

Nice analysis. What it boils down to is: do we believe the claim.

 

I, personally, do not.

(...)

 

Nice analysis. What it boils down to is: do we believe the claim.

 

I, personally, do not.

 

VOTE COUNT

d3mon (3): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, TerrorChrist

ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango

KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez

TerrorChrist (2): CaoCao, d3mon

 

No Lynch (1): KevinH

 

Not Voting (1): Preston

 

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

Edited April 12, 201115 yr by molestargazer

Would it be worthwhile to consider a no-lynch in order to give d3mon a chance to prove himself (if it is like in last game he will be able to tell who moved and any who are townie would be able to prove it) or have the mafia kill him. If there is a doc who can revive for a day like last time we will still have his results.

But that's just it, he can't prove himself at this point.

 

IF, the town however had some sort of rolecop, he could investigate d3mon and reveal what he has found. But I find it highly unlikely that the town has a security guard AND a rolecop, as a combo like that would be overpowered. So we're back to square 1.

 

However, no-lynching would be our best option at this point if we somehow figured out how to prove d3mon's townieness.

But that's just it, he can't prove himself at this point.

 

IF, the town however had some sort of rolecop, he could investigate d3mon and reveal what he has found. But I find it highly unlikely that the town has a security guard AND a rolecop, as a combo like that would be overpowered. So we're back to square 1.

 

However, no-lynching would be our best option at this point if we somehow figured out how to prove d3mon's townieness.

 

Exactly, the only way I think he can prove himself right now is for us to no-lynch and give him the chance to use what I think his ability is (like in the last game). But he could just make up his own results and before we get the chance to lynch him (which wouldn't happen until Day 3; 3 night kills and 1 lynch on day 2 with his results).

 

I will wait for some players with more experience in longer, text based mafia to state their opinion (I have only played it in person where voting took like a minute)

However, no-lynching would be our best option at this point if we somehow figured out how to prove d3mon's townieness.

The problem is that any 'give d3mon a chance to prove himself' scenario involves basically giving scum the game if we're wrong - and he's acting anti-townie enough that at this point I'd give better than even odds he's scum.

 

Per my earlier post, any attempt at proving d3mon town would involve following at least one of his lynch targets. If he's scum, weve not only let him live (and possibly use an ability), but use our day 2 lynch as an extra kill that scum determines. Night kill 1, day lynch 2, night kill 2 - giving scum control of 3 kills out of an 11 person game would bring us to lynch-or-lose. We might lynch d3mon himself at that point and buy some breathing room, BUT d3mon would probably claim he's town... see below.

 

Assuming that d3mon is town, if his list produces a false positive on the first attempt (like CD going after EM last game, though that wasnt his first target), then wed STILL lose 3 people in a row: night kill 1, day lynch 2, night kill 2. Only at that point we'd be CONVINCED that d3mon was scum, lynch him... and it's game over. And if d3mon was scum, he'd claim he WAS town and that his lynch would end the game - so on day 3 we'd STILL be debating if d3mon is scum or not.

 

IF d3mon is town AND really security guard AND produces a scum target on his FIRST attempt... then and only then would town come out ahead by testing him. But thats only one scenario out of three, and a very unlikely one at that.

 

So in brief: I cant see a way to test d3mon without basically giving scum the game.

 

-Preston

Exactly, the only way I think he can prove himself right now is for us to no-lynch and give him the chance to use what I think his ability is (like in the last game). But he could just make up his own results and before we get the chance to lynch him (which wouldn't happen until Day 3; 3 night kills and 1 lynch on day 2 with his results).

 

I will wait for some players with more experience in longer, text based mafia to state their opinion (I have only played it in person where voting took like a minute)

 

If D3mon is scum (which I believe), then the strategy of no-lynching would be signing our death sentence. Night 1: townie dies. Day 2: we work with faked results, lynching a townie. Night 2: Townie dies, day 3: we finally lunch a mobster (I sure hope I am right in my suspicion), Night 4: Townie dies... This would leave us with 4 dead townies.... and we would probably be outnumbered, wouldn't we?

 

Of course, if he ISN'T scum, then we'd be at the same position: do we trust his report and do we all decide to lynch the guy he names...? I don't think that I would suddenly miracylously believe that he is a good guy after all...

 

Now, I sure hope I am right, because I already know that if he turns out to be town, people will be pointing at me saying "You wanted to lynch him, you must be scum".