459 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

One more fact I've forgot to mention. We not only have that 17% chance to take out cop, but there's an equal chance to take out scum's role cop, thus making it much harder for them to find our cop, allowing him to work a little bit longer. That somewhat weakens the argument against lynching (that there's risk of hitting our cop).

 

Man, I think there should be no lynch at this time. I exactly agree with Lyner , Ferm and Queen Hitler

 

 

Looking at AbT's scenarios, it's best that there's no lynch for now.

 

 

Vote: No Lynch 

No offense my friend, but hiding your reasoning and posting decisions only is considered scummy (at least by me ). You're new so I'm not accusing you but I'd like to hear why exactly you believe no lynch is the way to go after looking at my scenarios...because I've come to opposite conclusions (and I though I've stated them clearly).

[Whitebeard]

Huh, you're annoying me. Scummy this, scummy that. I really don't care what's scummy mate, and I said in the above quote that I agree with Hitler's reasoning. That's why I'm doing no lynch.

 

 

Got a problem? 

 

 

?? 

 

 

Unvote

 

Vote: iSocialism

 

His play style is worse than Rafay. Lurking throughout the game and making no effort to help town. See last game he played (Roberts).

lol, is this Imran using previous games to use as evidence. Maybe would should check out TW game, and see how butt hurt you were when someone did it to you.

Also, please have a better reason to dispose of me, I know you think I'm a threat, but come one. You can do better than that piss excuse.

 

Hmm...I'm again agreeing with Imran. This is valid argument because it is not about specific action made while being in a specific character of that game. It's argument about playstyle. Imran's said you've been lurking in Robert's game. Everyone playing in TW's game can confirm the same. Why should we expect you'll play differently in this game? .

 

Now...

 

When we let cop to work for 2 nights, statistically he'll be able to confirm 2 townies. If we let him work for 3 nights than most probably he'll find 2 townies and 1 scum. Hoping for more is being very, very lucky.

 

So let's simulate our game:

 

Optimistic scenario 1:

1. We decide that we're not lynching on D1 and D2.

2. Cop has found townie on the N1 and scum on N2. In the meantime 2 random townies have died at night (I could point out who won't be killed for sure but I'll refrain  )

3. He comes out and scum is lynched on D3.

4. Scums know we have just 2 actions left so they target cop no matter what jailer does. Cop dies on N3, N4 or N5 depending on jailers actions and is not able to provide us with any more information (of course they may foresee this and go for someone else and we can foresee their foreseeing and not jail cop...so it's a gambling game).

Conclusion: We are forced to need to start lynching on D4. We might be in a better position information wise than on D1. We're 7vs2 and will loose game after 3 mistakes.

 

Realistic scenario 2:

1. We decide that we're not lynching on D1 and D2.

2. Cop has found 2 townies on the N1,N2  In the meantime 2 random townies have died at night

3. He comes out telling about townies.

Conclusion: We are forced to need to start lynching on D3 with the same amount of information we got on D1. We're 8vs3  and will loose game after 3 mistakes.

 

Realistic scenario 3:

1. We decide that we're not lynching on D1 and D2, D3.

2. Cop has found 2 townies and one scum during the N1,N2, N3  In the meantime 2 random townies and one power role have died at night

3. He comes out telling about townies and a scum. Scum's lynched on D4. N4 some random townie dies.

Conclusion: We are forced to need to start lynching on D5. We might be in a better position information wise than on D1. We're 6vs2 and will loose game after 2 mistakes !!!

 

Realistic scenario 4: Please note it's just as probable as Realistic scenario 3.

1. We decide that we're not lynching on D1 and D2, D3.

2. Cop has found 2 townies and one scum during the N1,N2, N3  In the meantime 2 random townies and one power role have died at night

3. Cop's dead before he got a chance to talk.

Conclusion: We are forced to need to start lynching on D4 with the same amount of information we got on D1. We're 7vs3 and will loose game after 2 mistakes !!!

 

Lynch scenario:

1. We decide that we're lynching from the very beginning. We're 10vs3 and will loose game after 4 mistakes !!!

2. Cop has 17% chance to get lynched (D1,D2 combined). That means we still have 83% chance to get results as in scenarios 1 and 2 while keeping one more possible lynch mistake !!!

 

 

Final conclusions:

 

1. When we go no-lynch we're sacrificing our strongest lynch (strongest because the more lynches we go the more data we can analyze) in order to reduce the 17% chance we lynch cop down to 0%. Personally I have doubts if it's a good bargain.

2. If cop is smart then finding just one scum can be a big deal, though waiting to long for it will have great price. I'd say if we he doesn't find scum by D3 then screw it - he should come out anyway because he starts risking to much.

 

Due to the above considerations I believe that we should start lynching (hoping we won't hit cop) and cop should come out on D3.

And obviously, everyone is encouraged to challenge this idea, because there might be some flaws we need to discuss.

 

 

 

 

Looking at the REALISTIC scenarios, I think we should not lynch for now.

 

 

Don't want to repeat myself.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Imran Ehsan (2): Rhizoctonia, iSocialism,

Rafay (1): Ali bin Turban,

The Warrior (1): Rafay,
King Hitler (1): King Hitler,
iSocialism (1): Imran Ehsan,

Whitebeard (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):
Ali bin Turban (0)
Chaplain of death (0)
Fermion (0)
Lyner (0)
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No lynch (3): Fermion, Lyner, Whitebeard,

Not voting: Mandarijn, Chaplain of death, Robert2424, The Warrior,

 
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Sunday, May 29 at 21:00 EDT
 

[Rhizoctonia]

I've only played twice, and both games were no lynch on first day.  So I haven't played in one that we lynched someone on first day.  I still haven't understood the real benefit of lynching on the first day, though I've seen people look to push such, the good has never seemed to outweigh the bad in my eyes.  Not saying I wouldn't do so if that's what we want to do, and because I've never seen it done so playing it out lynching Day 1 and the results of the game at the end will allow me to really know if it helped or hurt us for future games.  

 

I just don't really see what results we get from doing so.  We take out another town, which will likely leave us already down 2 come Day 2.  We have the chance to hit the cop (relatively small percentage), but we also have the chance of hitting our two other town roles as well.  Plus, if the person that has enough votes to by lynched day 1 and has a power role, we may force them to roleclaim on day 1.  Which in this game, with only having 3 PR's, you're either dead by the lynch, and even if you come out, you are likely dead because the Scum is going to target them knowing we only have 3 roles, or we blow our action points with the jailkeeper to keep him from being lynched, which is basically a waste because then we're using up points saving someone that likely wont ever be able to use his role anyway because the jailkeeper action prevents him if used on them.

I never thought there was enough information on Day 1 to really suspect someone.  Sure, I got a little read on D3mon on the first day on the other game, and my gut suspected he was, but it wasn't anything that solid I was sold on.  I mean a lot of people are talking so far Day 1 here, so there might be a read to get, but really it's going to be a guess.  I don't see what information we gain if we lynch a townie on Day1.  Sure, we could look to suspect anyone involved in that vote as possible scum...but that's not really good concrete information to go on, as everyone besides scum is just guessing and likely some are just town just going along with people to make sure someone gets lynched because they feel we need to lynch day 1.  

 

I mean I get we stand a chance to lynch a scum, which would be huge....but we have a lot better chance of hitting a town member as a whole, and same percentage of hitting a scum and one of our power roles.  I would hate to actually guess and lynch a power role of ours, or force them to roleclaim where in my eyes, they my as well be dead because their survival relies on the jailkeeper which basically makes them a VT because they can't use their role.  The only benefit I see from then is as a distraction, where the scum has to decide to either try to lynch the confirmed role and maybe not get a kill, or go after someone else....that's basically their only use at that point, to hopefully have scum waste their night kill.

 

And lastly, I don't get the basis of someone looking scummy for going no lynch.  I think this is a subject that people differ on greatly, and both have some good points for their choice.  Scum in general would want a lynch Day 1 more then anyone, it allows them likely to knock of 2 towns by Day 2, especially since they know who is scum and who is not, and know who to maybe put a vote on if a townie already has 3 votes from towns to finish the lynch at deadline.  Like I said, I don't see the benefits outwheighing the possible negatives, so I'm usually not someone who would push real hard for a lynch Day 1, but I also haven't played in a game yet where a lynch was made Day 1 so I don't how much it helps/hurts for sure. 

[Whitebeard]

Yep. Definitely agree.

[Ali bin Turban]

Rhizo how will D2 or D3 be different from D1? Cop will have to be lucky to get a scum. If he's not then what?

[Rhizoctonia]

Rhizo how will D2 or D3 be different from D1? Cop will have to be lucky to get a scum. If he's not then what?

 

 

Well I'd say likely D2 will be similar to where we are now, but by D3, we may at least get some information from the cop if he's still alive...at the least, he will be able to tell us 2 confirmed townies + himself, so 3 for sure verified townies which narrows the list down.  Hopefully he will have identified a scum though.

 

But day 2 will likely be a lot similar to Day 1, besides trying to analyze who the scum killed at night.  Likely D2 is going to come down to a guess for the most part on who to lynch, but it gives another day of people talking to try to get a clue on whose scum.  But by day 3, we maybe only down 3 town by not lynching N1 instead of 4 if we guess wrong both D1 + D2.  We may have to only "guess" lynch once, rather then twice (Day1 + Day2), and by day 3, we will at least have some info from the cop of who a scum is, or at least 2 confirmed townies.

 

I'm just trying to understand what more information we will gain for day 2 with a lynch then a no lynch, and if it provides good enough information that it's worth losing a townie likely.  There's a chance that at least 1 scum will be involved in the lynch (if a town person is killed) since they benefit from it..but that's not even for certain.  What I do see as a possible benefit is later in the game when numbers start getting lower and we're looking for say the last scum...we could look back at past votes and see if any of the people alive were part of the lynch on D1 that killed a town.  So there is that benefit from doing so.

 

I'm likely going to be voting to lynch someone on Day 1, but I'm not necessarily just going to jump on a bandwagon to gain enough votes to lynch someone without someone at least trying to provide even the smallest reason to lynch said person.  I have a tiny "theory" right now on where my final vote before Day 1 ends will go, however I'm waiting til at least tomorrow to see if something happens that makes me think differently, but if it doesn't I will provide my thoughts with ample time for people to see before deadline.  Like I said, I'm not necessarily completely against a lynch on Day 1, however I am not all for a lynch just to lynch with 0 basis behind it besides just picking someone to go with.  I know there's not much to go on, but I at least want someone to point me to something that made them pick that person, or a reason.

[Imran Ehsan]

Think of it as working on the assumption that the worst case scenario will prevail..that is the cop will get killed on N1. The town wins only through lynching. The decision on who to lynch comes purely from analysis of posts by different players and wagons that are created when someone is being lynched. If no one is being lynched and everyone votes No Lynch on D1 thats just criminal. We then have basically 0 info from Day 1 on which to based D2 lynch on.

 

The best scenario is someone gets lynched. 2 things. When someone is about to get lynched they put up a vehement defense (if they are not inactive). If they are scum it becomes easy to find flaws in their defense and look closely at those trying to move the discussion away from said lynnch. If its a townie, we still can be swayed by his defense and it actually is good for the game because we know he is probably town by his defense, and it makes the job of the cop easier on who to target in the night based on the discussions and who was really pushing for the lynch or who were trying to bandwagon in on the lynch. Secondly, with a lynch (even if it was a mislynch) we gain valuable info that can be used on D2. The second best scenario is there are a couple of lynch wagons on D1 but no one gets lynched in the end. This is good as well because we can see who was taking whose side but at the end less useful because we dont know if actually a scum was being wagoned on or a townie.

 

Think of the cop or other power roles as bonus info. If we get good info from them..really great. But we work on the assumption that the cop will get killed at night. This decreases the over-reliance of the town on the cop and makes it easy for the scum, because they just go with the flow of "No Lynch" and try to kill off the cop at night. Nothing is worse than a game where no one posts anything or no one is getting accused of being scum. Scum hunting is not possible in those cases and the town will lose 9 times out of 10.

 

So to summarise: Start lynching early and start getting reads on people. People wont post much (specially scum) if they are not being voted on. Push peoples buttons and see how they react.

 

Now, who to lynch on D1. We have 0 info to go on from this game. So we may push the lurkers to post more. This can be done by (i) voting for them and threatening them with lynches or

(ii) use info from past games to decide lynch target or

(iii )be very practical and lynch the noobs rookies.

 

(i) Self explanatory.

(ii) ABT has already brought up the example of Rafay who can be a good lynch for D1. My example is iSoacialism who has already started lurking and normally lurks throughout the game and normally gets manipulated and comes out to vote anti-town even if he is town.

(iii) This probably should not be followed if we are trying to get more people to play the game but looking at it very practically they are not helpful for the town, gets manipulated by scum easily and will never be targetted by scum. Of course some rookies are very good from the Go and they should not be lynched. A few posts from them and a few votes on them will reveal what kind of player they are.

[Mandarijn]

@KevinH: Who are you looking to replace? Robert?

 

If so, I would be fine with lynching Rafay as I agree with our master minds that if the cop dies early we need other ways to gather intel and lynch wagons, who defends who, ... will be very helpfull then.

 

Vote: Rafay

[Ali bin Turban]

Huh, you're annoying me. Scummy this, scummy that. I really don't care what's scummy mate, and I said in the above quote that I agree with Hitler's reasoning. That's why I'm doing no lynch.

 

 

Got a problem? 

 

 

?? 

I don't give a slightest damn whether you like it or not. Every townie should try to be as transparent as possible, because not explaining ones reasons create uncertainty and uncertainty leads to misslynches, which lead to game being lost for the town.

 

So far I've asked you politely about your choices and were meet with this kind of aggressiveness. Attacking others that ask for opinions is not transparency, therefore in case there are no more obvious targets you can count on my vote.

[Ali bin Turban]

I agree with Imran. We can't rely on cop to much, because: 

 

- There's a big chance he won't be able to find any scum during first two nights.

- There's a chance he'll investigate someone that will be killed

- There's a chance he'll get killed

- He makes a stupid move and checks someone that was an obvious target and gets nailed by a framer.

- Or the most trivial: he gets inactive

 

There are many things that may go wrong and it's not the kind of the game we can load back if it gets rough. Relying on luck is not something we want to do. There's a big chance we'll have no interesting data on D3 and that will mean we'll be back in D1 but with one less lynch opportunity.

Also no matter what cop will find we'll be forced to lynch while not having any night action's result to support our claims (because there are 3 scums and cop at most will get us to the first one).

 

The best course of action now is to start lynching:

- We'll create data to analyze

- We can hit our cop by accident but we got the same chance to hit scum's cop too. Also lynching will make cops job of finding scums easier (he will not have to choose people randomly)...and I know, it sounds brutal, he'll have less targets to check.

 

That being said piling on someone and creating one bandwagon will not be as useful as getting two and discussing who is better target.

 

Finally onto Rafay, I think he's a rational person. He's maximizing his gains and choosing the tactic that benefit's him while requiring the least effort. He's an ideal model player for the purpose of game theory...and I'm just a balancing factor that pushes him into finding Nash Equilibrium between personal and town gains .

[Fermion]

It has already been said, and I already posted it earlier, but the high chance of lynching a townie / pro town role is why a D1 lynch shouldn't be done. Threatening a ynch on someone definitely increases their activity as they try to defend themselves, and this means more posts and evidence to look through and analyze after N1. However, aside from the discussion, I really see little point in early lynching.

[Imran Ehsan]

It has already been said, and I already posted it earlier, but the high chance of lynching a townie / pro town role is why a D1 lynch shouldn't be done. Threatening a ynch on someone definitely increases their activity as they try to defend themselves, and this means more posts and evidence to look through and analyze after N1. However, aside from the discussion, I really see little point in early lynching.

 

Man. You keep on making these scummy posts. I will explain why I am finding your posts scummy. You are on the fence with every thing. You say you don't support a lynch on D1 and then you go on to say threatening a lynch is actually good because there is more evidence. You are trying to play it too safe. I am gonna go dig through your earlier posts and see if you have been doing this from the beginning.

[Imran Ehsan]

The best strategy for town on the first day is to not lynch anyone because there is no evidence and most of the evidence is basically conjecture or for lulz. This was discussed in my last game and I'm surprised to see that many of the same people who voted for this, actually have already voted for someone.  Ali bin turban as been especially eager to vote for a lynch even though he knows that a mislynch (highly probable at this point) would only hurt the town. This looks scummy to me. But as for the rest of his actions, they genuinely look good.

 

I'm not very sure about anyone at this point. 

 

Vote: No Vote

 

It's always better than lynching a townie, or worst, cop

 

These are first two posts that made me look at you twice.

 

You say ABT looks scummy. But then you say his other posts are really good. Neither here nor there. He is either scummy or he is not. One cant be scummy with some of his points and not be scummy with his other posts. I dont get it. Also that reason of a mislynch hurting the town. Hello Mr. Obvious. Every one knows that. Its almost impossible to avoid mislynches is a mafia game. Whats more important is what info we got from the mislynch that we can use later on. Mislynches become really bad in a LYLO situation, never on Day 1 or Day 2. I get the feeling you are trying too hard to act like what you think a normal townie will act like.

 

 

We need your opinions/thoughts on how to play this and who looks suspicious to you.
Same goes for iSocialism in my opinion, he's also always very quiet in the 2 games I've played...
 
I still have an important question we need to discuss: should the cop come out immediately if he happens to find a scum?
After this we could let the Jailkeeper protect the cop and it'll be a guessing game for the Mafia like Ali said.
 
@KevinH: If the jailkeeper protects the cop and the cop investigates someone (but can't because he's put in jail). Does the town lose only 1 or 2 points?

That may be a nice strategy for us,I think. Cop is the most important role and should be protected at all costs, but the jail will hinder his ability too, making him useless.

I agree that he should come out with his results as soon he identifies someone as scum because of two reasons:

A) He may die the next night, with his knowledge
There's arole changer (or something ) on mafia's side and hemay change the result. Hence all accused by the cop should get a chance to explain themselves too, and that isn't possible if there's no time

 

 

You are only stating obvious things. Not trying to contribute to the discussion or throw out new ideas that may help the town. Again I get the feeling that you are just posting just for the sake of posting.

[Chaplain of death]

 

The best strategy for town on the first day is to not lynch anyone because there is no evidence and most of the evidence is basically conjecture or for lulz. This was discussed in my last game and I'm surprised to see that many of the same people who voted for this, actually have already voted for someone.  Ali bin turban as been especially eager to vote for a lynch even though he knows that a mislynch (highly probable at this point) would only hurt the town. This looks scummy to me. But as for the rest of his actions, they genuinely look good.

 

I'm not very sure about anyone at this point. 

 

Vote: No Vote

 

It's always better than lynching a townie, or worst, cop

 

These are first two posts that made me look at you twice.

 

You say ABT looks scummy. But then you say his other posts are really good. Neither here nor there. He is either scummy or he is not. One cant be scummy with some of his points and not be scummy with his other posts. I dont get it. Also that reason of a mislynch hurting the town. Hello Mr. Obvious. Every one knows that. Its almost impossible to avoid mislynches is a mafia game. Whats more important is what info we got from the mislynch that we can use later on. Mislynches become really bad in a LYLO situation, never on Day 1 or Day 2. I get the feeling you are trying too hard to act like what you think a normal townie will act like.

 

 

We need your opinions/thoughts on how to play this and who looks suspicious to you.
Same goes for iSocialism in my opinion, he's also always very quiet in the 2 games I've played...
 
I still have an important question we need to discuss: should the cop come out immediately if he happens to find a scum?
After this we could let the Jailkeeper protect the cop and it'll be a guessing game for the Mafia like Ali said.
 
@KevinH: If the jailkeeper protects the cop and the cop investigates someone (but can't because he's put in jail). Does the town lose only 1 or 2 points?

That may be a nice strategy for us,I think. Cop is the most important role and should be protected at all costs, but the jail will hinder his ability too, making him useless.

I agree that he should come out with his results as soon he identifies someone as scum because of two reasons:

A) He may die the next night, with his knowledge
There's arole changer (or something ) on mafia's side and hemay change the result. Hence all accused by the cop should get a chance to explain themselves too, and that isn't possible if there's no time

 

 

You are only stating obvious things. Not trying to contribute to the discussion or throw out new ideas that may help the town. Again I get the feeling that you are just posting just for the sake of posting.

 

 

^ this. Ferm your post about ABT sounds like you are trying to make us doubt him already without outright accusing him (scum tactic).

 

Vote Fermion

[Rhizoctonia]

Whitebeard and Fermion's posts seem to stand out the most...with Whitebeard getting agitated quickly with ABT, and Fermion with just repeating most others have said.

I always seem to be after Imran and I really don't want to be again...but bit surprised no scum haven't jumped on him with him having 2 votes and only needing 4 at deadline, which is only in a few hours. This would go for Rafay as well. But he made a townie post IMO (know he is well versed in Mafia and knows what to say if he is scum), but giving him the benefit of the doubt. Plus he is someone he is great to have if town, hate to mislynch him and lose his ability to detect scum.

Unvote

Will likely be going Fermion or Whitebeard. Know pretty vague for me, but on phone and wanted to out some thoughts since Deadline is coming up

[Mandarijn]

 

Deadline is Sunday, May 29 at 21:00 EDT
 

1 more week Rhizo

[Rhizoctonia]

Deadline is Sunday, May 29 at 21:00 EDT

1 more week Rhizo

Whoopsie, now I got more time to look at people's posts....and my Imran/Rafay comment doesn't apply it seems because there's still a week left not a few hours. Finally I don't have to be against Imran at the start!

[Rafay]

Finally onto Rafay, I think he's a rational person. He's maximizing his gains and choosing the tactic that benefit's him while requiring the least effort. He's an ideal model player for the purpose of game theory...and I'm just a balancing factor that pushes him into finding Nash Equilibrium between personal and town gains .

 

 

 

Wow. Is that a compliment from my biggest critic. Thank you for the kind words sir. 

[Whitebeard]

Louis Van Gall's Red Army!!