I am wondering if we should make anything out of CD's persistent accusations against EM.

 

But then, I am finding his arguments to be most compelling.

 

Therefore, I wish to point my finger of suspicion at EM.

 

FoS: Electric Mango.

I am wondering if we should make anything out of CD's persistent accusations against EM.

 

But then, I am finding his arguments to be most compelling.

 

Therefore, I wish to point my finger of suspicion at EM.

 

FoS: Electric Mango.

 

As I have stated before...if you think I'm mafia...then lynch me.

I no longer have a power role ability...so it would do little harm to the town.

 

I am persistently accusing EM because I believe him to be Mafia.

His role does not make sense if I'm a one-time security guard.

I have two questions for you CD.

 

1) Was ChaosHawk your PersonX? If he wasn't, then that may speak to the number of pro-town roles that are in play.

 

2) You saw EM, Kasabian and a 3rd whom you are convinced is townie move on night 1. Kasabian has been lynched and confirmed scum - moreover, he was generic scum with no power role. Therefore if EM moved, he was either truly 'insomniac' - possible but increasingly unlikely - or he was mafia using some ability OTHER than the night kill. Do we have any idea/indication what that could have been? If we can determine mafia took some action OTHER than night-kill that first night, that would put a very solid pair of cement shoes on EM.

 

-Preston

The more I think about this (over dinner), the more I find it difficult to justify EM's insomniac claim. The biggest hole in EM's claim is this: IF he knew from his role PM that he 1) had no beneficial powers and 2) his presence would interfere with town investigations, WHY DIDNT HE SAY SO ON DAY 1? Roleclaiming a negative role would not necessarily make him a BIGGER scum target, and the information would not inherently hurt the town - revealing that there's a cop isn't exactly poolshattering news.

 

I am currently considering the following scenario:

EM was one-shot role detective for mafia. Investigated chaoshawk on night 1, got that he was vigilante. They'd want him dead ASAP, so instead of hitting someone active during day 2 (any of us arguing over kasabian/EM's fate), they took out the known threat.

 

I am also going to:

FoS: Tactical Evil Dan.

Reason: I suspected him on Day 1 when he jumped VERY quickly on KevinH's bandwagon to 'call the vote' and end the day, amidst all the talk about how more conversation/debate would help the town. Mafia would want the day to end quickly without a lynch that could have targetted one of them - ESPECIALLY since the lone other lynch target was EM.

 

I will not vote EM just yet - I want to see what reactions this brings out - but I am feeling far better about it.

 

-Preston

I am also going to:

FoS: Tactical Evil Dan.

Reason: I suspected him on Day 1 when he jumped VERY quickly on KevinH's bandwagon to 'call the vote' and end the day, amidst all the talk about how more conversation/debate would help the town. Mafia would want the day to end quickly without a lynch that could have targetted one of them - ESPECIALLY since the lone other lynch target was EM.

 

I can see that this needs to be cleared up tout de suite.

 

I didn't jump on KevinH's 'call the vote' bandwagon. KevinH likened a no-lynch vote to 'calling the question.' CD said he didn't know what meant, so I dug out my Robert's Rules and clarified the meaning of the term.

 

It was then Preston who said he wanted to know if everyone had cast a vote of some kind or at least said something before the question got called. I very helpfully provided counts, mainly because I've been spending this game trying to figure out how not to get lynched by my fellow townies.

 

At no time did I ever call the question, suggest that we should call the question, or insinuate that the question had in fact been called. I just tried to further the discussion by defining the terms and keeping a head-count.

 

I honestly don't know why you're fingering me, Preston, but I now have my eye on you.

 

FoS: Preston

Preston, I didn't role claim Day 1 because I thought my insomniac role was some sort of passive detective role. My previous post explained this as well.

 

I am an insomniac and don't know what else to say about that. CD seems pretty adamant that he wants me dead but he's wrong in his logic. I still claim that Mole would not let CD see the identity of two mafia on one night. That would be too big of an advantage for the town.

 

I have my suspicion on who is most likely scum but will have to go over the posts again before posting who it is. Nothing concrete but I'm usually pretty good at going with my hunches.

I can see that this needs to be cleared up tout de suite.

 

I didn't jump on KevinH's 'call the vote' bandwagon. KevinH likened a no-lynch vote to 'calling the question.' CD said he didn't know what meant, so I dug out my Robert's Rules and clarified the meaning of the term.

 

It was then Preston who said he wanted to know if everyone had cast a vote of some kind or at least said something before the question got called. I very helpfully provided counts, mainly because I've been spending this game trying to figure out how not to get lynched by my fellow townies.

 

At no time did I ever call the question, suggest that we should call the question, or insinuate that the question had in fact been called. I just tried to further the discussion by defining the terms and keeping a head-count.

 

I honestly don't know why you're fingering me, Preston, but I now have my eye on you.

 

FoS: Preston

 

Hm. I was certain you had agreed with KevinH and used the term "call the question" yourself. I DO remember suspecting you due to the feeling you were trying to help the day end faster while I was trying to draw it out - but not saying anything at first since you were also looking at EM despite the vote not even being close. Distancing vote? Possibly. However, looking back at your specific post it is in fact an explanation instead of an agreement. While I'd debate how much your short "yes everyone has posted" actually helped keep things going, I DID ask for a tally - though when I asked for it I was hoping to find someone who hadnt spoken so we could keep the discussion going, and instead got got a short "It's done".

 

I went back and reviewed your other posts just now, to refresh myself on other positions you have taken and to make sure I have not been consistently misjudging you. Most notable to me are the following:

 

1. Your late vote on Kasabian when it was already a done deal (6 votes, yours was the 7th), after being largely silent for three days.

Add me to that list, CD. As I expressed previously, there's no difference between lynching Kasabian or EM, since we'd be lynching one or other for pretty much the same reason.

 

Vote: Kasabian

 

2. You explicitly asked who the second person was. Again, I was unsure of CD's roleclaim as well and the unverified person who could vouch for him was a real sticking point for me. But even I agreed that the person roleclaiming was not a good idea. Mafia getting another target? Possible.

I'm going to work off the assumption that you're not blowing smoke up my ass. At the moment I have no reason to believe you are, and I don't want to work myself into a paranoid frenzy.

 

My first concern is that we need to know who the third person is. If you're right and you're the next to go, I'd really like to avoid lynching one of us.

 

My second concern is the result of my inexperience. When the scum go after someone, do they do it in twos? If so, great, but if not then you're accusing two people of being scum when only one of them actually is.

 

3. Despite your caution in one post about premature accusation, you were quick to jump to KevinH yourself.

CD, I realize we've got only slightly more information to go on today than we did yesterday, but let's not be hasty.

 

We've got plenty of time to talk this over, and I for one thing a vote for EM is premature.

Well, if movement pegs EM as scum, that probably means KevinH needs to be looked at, too.

 

4. Less tangible, but just the way you wrote "the townie perspective"... as though you were new and trying to follow mafia teammates' instructions to act like a townie.

CD, if they're both scum, why does it matter to you which one gets lynched first?

 

Granted, you could make an argument that if EM has scum powers it would stand to reason he'd point the finger at the other guy, but since we don't know either way it doesn't make a difference from the townie perspective -- right?

 

So my verdict for now: I'll grant that you did not overtly side with KevinH in trying to end the day by calling the vote. However the review of your other positions is such that I wont remove my FoS - but on the same token, neither is it severe enough to merit a vote just yet.

 

-Preston

Oh, and an addendum: I got to play the "newbie card" myself last game when I was scum. For that reason if none other, I find myself looking at your posts quite closely - especially when used as an excuse.

 

-Preston

1. Your late vote on Kasabian when it was already a done deal (6 votes, yours was the 7th), after being largely silent for three days.

 

I made my point early on in the Day 2 discussion, and it seemed like the more I talked the more CD got suspicious of me. Having made my point, I shut the hell up. I don't know why it is that other people can opine and not get the finger-point, but apparently I can't, so I keep see-sawing between trying to contribute to the effort to rid the town of scum and keeping quiet.

 

2. You explicitly asked who the second person was. Again, I was unsure of CD's roleclaim as well and the unverified person who could vouch for him was a real sticking point for me. But even I agreed that the person roleclaiming was not a good idea. Mafia getting another target? Possible.

 

My first thought is that it would be a crying shame if we lynched one of us in our fervor, but when CD clarified why he wasn't going to name that person, I understood and agreed myself, after which I moved on to the topic of lynching.

 

3. Despite your caution in one post about premature accusation, you were quick to jump to KevinH yourself.

 

I was pretty conditional about my inclusion of KevinH, and it was based on the fact that EM got behind KevinH pretty very early and very vocally in the game. I said "look at," not "lynch."

 

4. Less tangible, but just the way you wrote "the townie perspective"... as though you were new and trying to follow mafia teammates' instructions to act like a townie.

 

Hoo, boy.

 

So my verdict for now: I'll grant that you did not overtly side with KevinH in trying to end the day by calling the vote. However the review of your other positions is such that I wont remove my FoS - but on the same token, neither is it severe enough to merit a vote just yet.

 

The feeling is entirely mutual. I was as suspicious of CD as I am of because of the pointedness of his challenges to me in particular (versus several others), until his very first finger-point turned up a scum.

Oh, and an addendum: I got to play the "newbie card" myself last game when I was scum. For that reason if none other, I find myself looking at your posts quite closely - especially when used as an excuse.

 

-Preston

 

In every other game format I've ever played, the "newbie card" served both as "I'm sorry for being dense" and an invitation for some guidance or explanation so that I could stop being dense and get with helping the game roll along.

In every other game format I've ever played, the "newbie card" served both as "I'm sorry for being dense" and an invitation for some guidance or explanation so that I could stop being dense and get with helping the game roll along.

It does - but it's also an excellent defense in a game where mistakes and slipups by scum are all we have to go on outside of vote patterns and role information.

 

It's very useful when you can reduce suspicion by just saying "sorry, dont mind me I'm new." I used it during the last game and it was quite effective. I think you are probably smart enough to do the same if you wanted to. Again, this isnt proof - but it's me recognizing that what worked for me last game, could be something you do this game.

 

-Preston

 

VOTE COUNT

Electric Mango (2): CanucksDynasty, ccabal86

 

Not Voting (6): Kaziocore, Electric Mango, Preston, AKCPLUTO, KevinH, Tactical Evil Dan

 

With 8 alive, 5 is needed to lynch.

Edited March 5, 201115 yr by molestargazer

I have two questions for you CD.

 

1) Was ChaosHawk your PersonX? If he wasn't, then that may speak to the number of pro-town roles that are in play.

 

2) You saw EM, Kasabian and a 3rd whom you are convinced is townie move on night 1. Kasabian has been lynched and confirmed scum - moreover, he was generic scum with no power role. Therefore if EM moved, he was either truly 'insomniac' - possible but increasingly unlikely - or he was mafia using some ability OTHER than the night kill. Do we have any idea/indication what that could have been? If we can determine mafia took some action OTHER than night-kill that first night, that would put a very solid pair of cement shoes on EM.

 

-Preston

 

 

1. No.

 

2. I believe EM to be a mafia roleblocker. Considering the amount of one-time usage pro-town power roles, a mafia roleblocker makes a lot more sense than a 3rd party/townie insomniac role. The town is already disadvantaged by not having a permanent ability and doesn't need a wandering insomniac to further disadvantage the town.

Preston, I didn't role claim Day 1 because I thought my insomniac role was some sort of passive detective role. My previous post explained this as well.

 

I am an insomniac and don't know what else to say about that. CD seems pretty adamant that he wants me dead but he's wrong in his logic. I still claim that Mole would not let CD see the identity of two mafia on one night. That would be too big of an advantage for the town.

 

I have my suspicion on who is most likely scum but will have to go over the posts again before posting who it is. Nothing concrete but I'm usually pretty good at going with my hunches.

 

I'm dying to hear who you suspect.

1. No.

 

2. I believe EM to be a mafia roleblocker. Considering the amount of one-time usage pro-town power roles, a mafia roleblocker makes a lot more sense than a 3rd party/townie insomniac role. The town is already disadvantaged by not having a permanent ability and doesn't need a wandering insomniac to further disadvantage the town.

 

Well you said you only saw three people that moved at N1.

Kasabian, EM and Person X

 

Kasabian being a powerless goon (which means he killed Nerau),

only EM or Person X could be some kind of a roleblocker.

I need to get to bed here soon. But I'm going to throw one more wrench out into the open - it'll probably make a fair sized splash too, but at this point it's better for the town to HAVE this information than not.

 

I have a town role. It is not a role that is beneficial for the town, but not one that would show up at night and affect CD's observation or one that actively HURTS the town to an excessive degree. I'll invite mafia to target me tonight if they wish to see for themselves - though I increasingly suspect they have some sort of permanant role cop or other form of intel to let them know who has what role.

 

The fact that I have this role is the reason I was originally suspicious of your analysis CD - you may remember I used the phrase "the more to give you or others the rope to hang yourselves with" - this was why. Your analysis hinged very strongly on there being a small number of town roles, such that eliminating the one you were told is town left two mafia. I originally thought the same about how many roles the town had - so that when you came up with a roles list that didn't include me, I was suspicious. What we have seen since then however, is that there seem to be more roles than you (or I) suspected. Nerau was a one-shot roleblocker. Chaoshawk was a one-shot vigilante. You were a one-shot cop. And there's still Person X, whose friendly neighbor "hey I'm town" was probably also one-shot. We still have not seen a normal townie death - and coupled with the fact that I have a negative role, I believe we are in the midst of a game like KevinH described - one with no vanilla townies.

 

We have also seen that Kasabian was a normal goon - no role. This means that at maximum there were two mafia roles, assuming only three mafia on day 1 and assuming that Kasabian's role was not somehow covered up. I'll leave it to you to determine what this means about how the number of roles on both sides could balance out.

 

I did not claim my role yesterday following my long critique of your analysis, partially due to what Kasabian linked to about passive/secret abilities - as in those kept secret from the player until some point later on. I've never been in a game with them, wasnt sure if it was possible - so if I was a backup or something else, I figured I'd give it one more night to see if I got a night message saying my power activated - or alternately to see if mafia used their nightkill on me since I'd been such a firebrand that day. I got no such message, so at this point I am inclined to believe my negative role is exactly as it was presented to me and nothing more.

 

I do not know if I am the only one with a negative role. This is the reason I initially treated EM's roleclaim as plausible, if exceedingly convenient.

Elements have stacked against him - his claim came late in response to your accusation, and he didnt claim it on day one to inform whoever the cop was. However reading back to day one, I came across this post:

 

With 11 people in the game I would guess 3 mafia as 4 mafia would seem to over-powered. 8 v 3 is more balanced then 7 v 4.

 

I'm assuming the town has 1 cop. I'm also assuming that since we are in the pool and no one has "drown in the pool" as Mole has stated, that we will also have a life guard in place of doctor. I'm presuming that mafia kill us off by drowning us and that a life guard could perform CPR and bring us back to life. I would say that his role would be the same as a strong doc. Not sure what other roles Mole would give the town. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a vigilante pop up in this game. We haven't seen one for a while.

 

EM assuming we had a cop IS, sadly, consistent with him knowing his role would interfere with a cop. I will also note that his post is oddly prophetic in that characterizing roles as lifeguards and seeing a vigilante have both happened. Therefore this post works both for him and against him, and puts me back on the fence somewhat.

 

At this point I am torn and could go either way with respect to EM.

 

Points against him:

1. If he'd said his role implied a cop's existence on day 1, that would have heavily influenced the no-lynch voting - plus it would have informed the cop.

2. His claim immediately followed the accusation against him.

 

Points to let him live:

1. I have a negative role, so negative roles exist.

2. We clearly have more town roles than we originally suspected, and with a max of 2 mafia roles now that implies proportions this game are screwed up.

 

I'll leave it to CD and others to flesh out this list further.

 

It may be that if EM is our only real candidate we'll have to take a 50/50 chance on him - but it would be very unfortunate to do so TOO early as we would be giving mafia an easy bandwagon target so we'd get little to no voting information from them. I think we may need to draw this day on a little longer than the last; Kasabian's defense was pathetic, but EM's may hold water. If we come down to a 50/50 split however, his roleclaim is such that the town would not be losing a valuable member - especially if everyone else has a role.

 

In the meantime however CD - I think it may also be worth listing or considering whatever other mafia targets you may have instead of keeping them in reserve. At minimum, if you die that will get the information out here for everyone to see.

 

I hope to see some good conversation on this subject when I get to check tomorrow.

 

-Preston

@Kaziocore - I saw 3 people moved during N1. Kasabian, EM and Player X. I was informed that Player X was not mafia. So I think that EM is a mafia roleblocker.

 

 

 

@Preston - At first, I didn't think that every townie would have a small (one-shot) power ability. Seeing as how mafia was able to nightkill 2 power-roles in a row, I have to consider it a possibility. I still don't trust you since your vote on EM could have been a distancing vote. And you roleclaiming a negative ability lends credibility to EM's roleclaim. At this point I have no real suspect other than EM. I have suspicions on Kaziocore, yourself (Preston), and TED but would lynch EM first.

 

 

 

@townies - Is there any plain vanilla townies? If so...please come forward. This will help the town determine if everyone has an ability or not. And we would know if it is plausible for Preston and EM to have negative roles.

Bad idea to have vanilla townies come forward. This would only make it easier for the mafia to kill our remaining power roles, if any. I'd rather take the risk of being lynched and have the truth come out post mortem.

@townies - Is there any plain vanilla townies? If so...please come forward. This will help the town determine if everyone has an ability or not. And we would know if it is plausible for Preston and EM to have negative roles.

 

I'm a townie with a very weak role but it's not one-time-only.

 

I liked the analysis that if we wrongly lynch a townie insomniac, then we haven't lost much.

 

Vote: Electric Mango

Bad idea to have vanilla townies come forward. This would only make it easier for the mafia to kill our remaining power roles, if any. I'd rather take the risk of being lynched and have the truth come out post mortem.

 

 

Possible. But if there are vanilla townies then it would debunk your (EM) and Preston's roleclaim of negative roles.

I'm a townie with a very weak role but it's not one-time-only.

 

Same here.

So it seems like I'm already at 3 votes...sigh. I hope you all don't drown me in the pool but if that's my fate then so be it. I don't have the time right now to do a proper post but for what it's worth I'll tell you who I suspect. I at least want to get this out in case I'm suddenly voted on before I can post more.

Vote: ccabal86

 

Reasons:

 

Distancing vote early in the game on Kasabian.

 

Did a lot of talking during day one but didn't really have much to say in terms of substance. A lot of scum are active early in games in appear to be active.

 

Also ccabal86 hasn't ruffled any feathers. He isn't the first to act and seems to wait what the majority says before acting.

 

He did vote for Kasabian on Day 2 but only after it was almost certain that he would be lynched regardless.

 

Also he was quick to vote for me after CD started it. CD doesn't know that I'm townie but I'm sure that ccabal86 does.

 

 

 

 

I've been playing long enough to know that this post isn't likely to get ccabal86 lynched instead of me today but I hope that after I'm dead that this post does the town some good.

 

 

Also the people I feel good about are CD because he got us our first scum lynch. Preston because he's invested a lot of time researching past posts and I just don't see scum doing that. KevinH because he was the first one to hypothosize that maybe all towine's have a special ability. He would not know that unless he himself was a townie with some special power.

 

As for everyone else I am undecided.

Also, I have another 30 minutes to reply so if anyone wants to ask me anything now is the time to do it.

Also, I have another 30 minutes to reply so if anyone wants to ask me anything now is the time to do it.

 

 

Who do you think may be the 3rd mafia if indeed ccabal86 is scum?

BS

 

You know why? I'm the one with the aimless wandering role. I am Player X who CD saw on the camera, he can confirm that. Mole probably bestowed this role upon me to confuse our security guard. It all makes sense seeing that there are probably no, or only very few vanilla townies.

 

I kept quiet so far, because I was waiting for the right time to expose myself letting you believe you can get away with a false roleclaim.

 

Here is my theory: Kasabian did the killing and you're probably a rolecop who investigated for townie roles.

If you were just wandering aimlessly then how did CD know you were a townie then. I was walking around aimlessly and he thought I was scum. Explain that to me.